Michigan is good enough to beat Indiana.
Big deal, right? They've been good enough to beat the Hoosiers since 1987. It doesn't matter who the coach is. No. 17 Michigan escaped Bloomington with a 27-20 overtime victory against Indiana on Saturday, but heads into next week's showdown at No. 3 Penn State with the same-old uncertainties under third-year coach Jim Harbaugh.
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If this is the best Michigan (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten) can offer, however, then it won't be good enough in the second half of the season. That's the challenge for Harbaugh, whose Wolverines escaped another wild finish at Memorial Stadium.
That's why the Nittany Lions are the ultimate perception swing for the Wolverines.
Right now, wins feel more like losses, and losses are amplified against the phenomenon Harbaugh created after his arrival in 2014. Win, and the Wolverines are in the Big Ten East hunt. Lose, and 100 percent of the angst is directed at Harbaugh. The Wolverines will be out of the College Football Playoff hunt with five games left. That hasn't happened in the Harbaugh regime yet, and the response to that would be difficult to block out.
Everybody will be saying Michigan isn't good enough, if they aren't already.
Michigan is good, but that's a relative term. Good enough to stay in every game because of that defense. Good enough to win eight games, even with an offense that goes three-and-out on seven of nine possessions in the second half before Karan Higdon's one-play touchdown run in overtime. But those other penciled-in victories against Minnesota, Maryland and Rutgers won't be cakewalks if this offense doesn't find something with John O'Korn under center. The passing game is a non-starter right now.
It was good enough against Indiana to overcome an undisciplined performance in which the Wolverines accumulated a school-record 16 penalties for 141 yards. If that happens next week, they will get blown out. Michigan somehow had 11 penalties for 94 yards at halftime and led by 10 points.
Thank the defense for that.
Michigan can lean on that D. It's on the short list of best in the nation. The Wolverines have allowed just eight offensive touchdowns in six games, and they came up with the clutch stop in overtime against the Hoosiers with the game on the line.
Michigan lost a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter, but that was a product of not being able to run out the clock on offense. The Wolverines could have thrown the knockout punch in the second quarter. Instead, well, you saw the ending.
The offense isn't good enough.
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Higdon (25 carries, 200 yards, three TDs) appears to be the feature back, but O'Korn needs to find a rapport with a receiver — any receiver — to open more running lanes up. Maybe it's Donovan Peoples-Jones. Maybe it's a tweak here and there as the Wolverines hit the meat of their schedule. Harbaugh and that offensive staff have to find something, and maybe the underdog role will help.
They won't be picked to win against No. 3 Penn State or at No. 7 Wisconsin or in the regular-season finale against No. 9 Ohio State. Nobody thinks the Wolverines are good enough to beat those teams, and they shouldn't right now. Some people think they'll get blown out. We're not there yet because of that defense, but Harbaugh faces a potential 8-4 season, and that would create all kinds of angst heading into Year 4.
That would feel a little bit like the end of the Lloyd Carr era, which produced a 27-11 record from 2005-07 before seven years of Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke. Michigan was good under Carr then, but not good enough at the end. They don't want to stay in that spot.
That's where they are with Harbaugh now, stuck in that purgatory where the wins don't feel good enough and the losses hurt more than they should. There's a chance to change all that with an unexpected victory in Happy Valley. There's a good chance the Nittany Lions will be ranked No. 2 for that one, too.
Win or lose, that's when you'll find out how good Michigan is this year — once and for all.
