Michigan is way too predictable, and for better — and in Saturday's case, worse — that is the biggest issue for a program facing Jim Harbaugh heading into Year 5.
The Wolverines' success and failure and can be seen at the root: a predictable offense that needs to produce at that all-too-elusive championship level. This is Michigan under Harbaugh, who is best recognized for his unpredictable-and-quirky news conference and social media behavior.
SPORTING NEWS BEST OF 2018
Read our favorite stories from the year in sports
All that unfolded one more time when No. 7 Michigan suffered a 41-15 blowout loss to No. 10 Florida in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl on Saturday.
That led to a predictable response — Twitter-finger irrationalism — after a third bowl loss in four seasons under Harbaugh. It's irrational to believe Harbaugh is either fired or NFL-bound. The year-over-year results are good enough at most FBS programs. Who's going to throw away double-digit wins three out of four years? Nobody.
A progressive view sees Harbaugh did not have Rashan Gary, Devin Bush or Karan Higdon, who all opted to sit out a bowl game that has less value than the College Football Playoff. If you're going to praise players for sitting out, then you can't roast coaches for losing without them. Those players will not be on the sideline next year, however, and that does not excuse the offense against the Gators.
Put all that together and it's easy to see the Wolverines will be good next season — but not good enough to get to that Playoff stage. Not until the offense evolves from the same predictable pattern with returning quarterback Shea Patterson, if he beats out Dylan McCaffrey for the starting job.
Until that happens, the same predictable criticisms of Harbaugh are coming. The Wolverines are 1-9 against top-10 competition under Harbaugh and, of course, 0-4 against rival Ohio State. The program remains in search of Big-Game James.
If a 62-39 loss to Ohio State and Urban Meyer didn't drive that point home, then the loss to Dan Mullen, one of Meyer's former offensive coordinators, should make that point clear. Michigan is good under Harbaugh, but it wasn't good enough against Notre Dame, Ohio State or Florida, let alone Clemson and Alabama.
What is the rational take about the state of the program?
Michigan entered Saturday with the eighth-best record among Power 5 schools since Harbaugh's arrival in 2015. You'd think that's much lower, given the big-game flops and the social-media criticism. But this is a top-10 program that will be ranked in the top 10 in most preseason polls. Harbaugh has a 38-14 record and .731 winning percentage. The only teams with better records in that stretch are Alabama (54-3), Clemson (53-4), Ohio State (47-6), Oklahoma (46-7), Wisconsin (42-12), Georgia (42-12) and Stanford (39-14).
The records are close, but there's a clear separation from good to great that requires pushing the throttle out of neutral and into overdrive. That's the difference between a solid and championship-caliber program. Harbaugh remains the right guy for the job, but this still feels like Michigan toward the end of the Lloyd Carr era.
FACES OF 2019
SN selects young stars who will shape tomorrow's headlines
Notice Wisconsin is the other Big Ten team on that list that has not broken through to the Playoff. The Badgers are predictable too, but they have a big offensive line and a running back factory that has produced four Doak Walker Award winners (Ron Dayne, Montee Ball, Melvin Gordon, Jonathan Taylor) since 1999.
Michigan doesn't have that beef in the running game, but tries to play like it does. The Wolverines also are trying to catch Ohio State, and you don't do that by trying to be Wisconsin. If that mindset does not change, then another predictable pattern will follow in 2019.
Monitor one predictable stat at all times: Michigan still cannot run the ball in big games. This marks 14 losses under Harbaugh, and in 13 of those losses the Wolverines failed to average 3.0 yards per carry. Michigan averaged 2.8 yards per carry at half and 2.5 yards per carry for the game.
Two fourth-down plays in the Peach Bowl — one on offense, one on defense — illustrate that problem. On Michigan's opening drive, the Wolverines slammed Ben Mason into the line of scrimmage on third-and-1 and fourth-and-1 at the Florida 38. Neither play netted them the yard they needed, and they turned the ball over on downs.
Later in the third quarter, on a fourth-and-1 from the Michigan 35, Mullen called a timeout before Florida receiver Kadarius Toney took a jet sweep 30 yards into the red zone. Two plays later, the Gators took a 20-10 lead.
Michigan's best drive of the game came when Patterson hit Nico Collins for gains of 11 and 41 yards before a 9-yard touchdown pass to Donovan Peoples-Jones. That gave the Wolverines a 7-3 lead with 2:03 left in the first quarter. That is the offense the Wolverines need to embrace in 2019. Collins, Peoples-Jones and Tarik Black are the playmakers on this offense.
That means turning Patterson, who elected to stay for his senior year, loose in all phases of the offense. Mullen did that with Feleipe Franks, an oft-criticized quarterback who totaled 173 passing yards, 70 rushing yards and two touchdowns against the Wolverines' vaunted defense. Florida had nine plays of 20 yards or more. Michigan had three, and all came in the first half.
In a game that relies more on the 20-yard lightning than 4-yard thunder, it's apparent Harbaugh needs to adopt a philosophical override and make it rain. If that means bringing in an offensive coordinator on top of passing game coordinator Pep Hamilton, then so be it.
MORE: Recapping Florida's dominant win
The good? Harbaugh brought in another top-10 recruiting class, the best in the Big Ten after the early signing period, and it includes a four-star running back in Zach Charbonnet. Patterson is back, which gives Harbaugh a returning quarterback for the second time. The Wolverines beat Wisconsin, Michigan State and Penn State, and Harbaugh does have a 7-4 record against those teams. Notre Dame, Michigan State and Ohio State all visit Michigan Stadium in 2019. Urban Meyer is gone, too.
The bad? The defense did not look good in those late-season losses, Bush and Gary are gone and Army and Wisconsin are on the September schedule. This program cannot get over-consumed with beating Ohio State, even if that remains the ultimate barometer. If they do, then they'll have too many losses when it's time to play "The Game" again.
Since 2000, Michigan has closed its season with losses to Ohio State and in its bowl game in 10 of 19 seasons. That doesn't include the three seasons where it did not make a bowl game in 2008, 2009 and 2014.
Harbaugh was brought on to change all that, and despite the success and talent upgrade, the same-old questions will follow until Harbaugh brings the offense into the 21st century once and for all.
That is how you close the gap and leave the pattern behind. That is the challenge for Harbaugh to break through, and yes, he is still the right guy for the job. To do that, there should be a two-part message in Ann Arbor to make sure this does not happen again in 2019:
Be something different.
Be unpredictable.
