No. 2 Ohio State meets No. 3 Michigan at Ohio Stadium on Saturday in a clash of 11-0 teams.
The Big Ten championship, College Football Playoff, Heisman Trophy and bragging rights in the greatest rivalry in college sports are among the stakes in Columbus.
"One of the beauties of this thing is there are no second chances," New York Times bestselling author John U. Bacon told Sporting News. "It is cruel, and it is brutal. It's beautiful, and it's awesome. No matter how good a season you've had, you don't get a second chance."
The winner of this year's matchup will be a heavy favorite to win the Big Ten championship game. The loser will hope for a back-door path into the College Football Playoff. The chance for a second chance is slim – at least for the next few years.
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The Ohio State-Michigan rivalry could see dramatic changes in the near future. USC and UCLA – the traditional Pac-12 foils at the Rose Bowl – are joining the Big Ten in 2024. The College Football Playoff is hoping to expand to 12 teams the same year. The Big Ten could restructure divisions, and the possibility the Wolverines and Buckeyes would have to play in the Big Ten championship game is close to becoming reality.
Would they be able to handle playing a week after The Game?
"Who are the 'they' you are talking about?" former Ohio State coach Urban Meyer asked SN. "Is it the coaches and players? For the coaches, no. They could not handle it. The players? Players are resilient, but it's awfully hard. But if 'they' is money and viewership and fan support, oh my gosh, absolutely. 'They' can handle that."
Meyer compiled a 7-0 record as a head coach against Michigan. He was part of the unforgettable 30-27 double-overtime thriller in 2016. Both sides still debate "The Spot." Meyer fell to the ground after the game-winning touchdown.
Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh settled for a "bitterly disappointed" press conference. Harbaugh was asked if Michigan and Ohio State were the two best teams. "I have no idea," he blurted out, almost incapable of calculating what had just transpired at The Shoe.
Those emotions linger for years when it comes to The Game.
"To be honest with you, I'm still not sure I've come down from that," Meyer said. "For people coaching and more importantly the players in that game, those are life-changing moments. It's something that you carry with you for the rest of your life. That's how important it is to both teams."
Will it feel like that if there are second or third chances? Ohio State and Michigan would not have met in the Big Ten championship in 2016, but the College Football Playoff was a possibility. In the brave new college football world, the Buckeyes and Wolverines are going to play more often.
"As things expand, you better be ready for that," former Ohio State coach Jim Tressel told SN. "It would be different. I always enjoyed the 364 days to get ready for it, but if it's all of a sudden that goes down to six days, that would take some adjusting."
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Can those teams summon the emotion necessary to play twice or even three times in a single season? Will that be healthy for a rivalry that champions its most hallowed-chapter as the "The Ten-Year War?" Would more Michigan-Ohio State games water down that regular-season matchup?
"The argument you're giving, which is what probably half the people have, is do you really want to diminish who wins it that year and has to live with it for a year?" Tressel said. "Do you diminish by playing it twice? Yeah, the Browns and Steelers are rivals, but I don't know if anyone talks about who won the rivalry unless they've beat them twice. I hear you, but the only thing constant is change."
How will The Game respond to those changes?
The Ohio State-Michigan game is the crown jewel of the regular season, especially when both teams are in the College Football Playoff hunt. Last year's game attracted 15.9 million viewers on Fox, which was more than the 15.2 million the SEC championship game between Alabama and Georgia drew the following week. This year's matchup promises to pull in massive numbers given both teams are 11-0.
The Big Ten will never admit it, but this is the best-case scenario for ratings. It has been like that since 1969. That is when the "Ten-Year War" between legendary coaches Woody Hayes and Bo Schembechler amplified this rivalry to its current heights. Michigan or Ohio State claimed at least a share of the Big Ten championship every year from 1969-78, and they were the only two schools that represented the conference in the Rose Bowl in that stretch. Those were the stakes, and at that time The Game was arguably more important than the postseason.
It's the subject of several documentaries; the latest coming this week when "Rivals" premieres. Bacon is among the personalities featured in "Rivals."
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"Look back at Woody and Bo's bowl records," Bacon said. "One of the reasons given for it, I think fairly, is they were already spent. Even though it was four or five weeks later, the emotional high of that game was too great."
The Bowl Championship Series produced the masterpiece in the series. No. 1 Ohio State met No. 2 Michigan on Nov. 18, 2006 – a game that drew 21.8 million viewers. The Buckeyes won 42-39 under Tressel, but there was still talk about the Wolverines being picked for the BCS championship game. The rematch never materialized, but the after-effects lingered into the postseason. Florida beat Ohio State 41-14 in the BCS championship game, and USC beat Michigan 32-18 in the Rose Bowl.
"It would have been a different thing had it been Michigan (in a rematch)," Tressel said. "On the other hand, it ended up being Florida and I'm not sure we handled the emotion of that right. I think our guys listened to, 'Hey, the two best teams are Michigan and Ohio State.' Who knows? We might have fared better, but I don't know."
That emotion in this rivalry cannot be quantified, and that is the question for the future. How will these schools handle a second go-round – whether it is in the Big Ten championship game or the College Football Playoff?
"It will be a change," Tressel said. "If Ohio State and Michigan in the current setup were in different divisions in the Big Ten that might have already happened. I think the emotional part of the game would be affected and whoever handles their emotions best is one that ends up the victor."
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Who would want a rematch? Talk to the guy who wants another shot.
Former Michigan tight end Jake Butt, now an analyst at the Big Ten Network, was on the losing side of that double-overtime thriller in 2016. That locked the Wolverines out of the Big Ten championship game and the College Football Playoff. If the Wolverines and Buckeyes were in position to play in a rematch, then would Butt take that chance.
"If you call yourself a competitor and a warrior you want that," Butt said. "I would have loved that. One, because I never beat them. I would have loved a couple more shots at Ohio State but two, that's like the NFL. It's every single week. It's the sport of football. It's why you come to Michigan and play in these big moments."
Michigan and Ohio State cannot have a rematch in the Big Ten championship game – at least not yet. Consider, however, that since the BCS era started had that been a possibility, the Buckeyes and Wolverines would have had a rematch six times (2003, 2006, 2007, 2018, 2021, 2022). That includes the last two seasons. When confronted with those numbers, Bacon became incensed.
"Think about how many things they’ve brought that have not diluted it that probably should have," Bacon said. "Twelve games instead of 10 or 11. Divisions East and West. Big Ten title game. Four-team College Football Playoff. All these things should have diminished this game. They’re trying to kill it, and they can’t. You know what, playing twice six out of 21 years, that might do it.”
How the addition of USC and UCLA impacts whether the Big Ten scraps its divisional format is the next question, and how that impacts the Ohio State-Michigan game has to be a consideration. Would setting up a format where the Buckeyes and Wolverines would have a rematch at the Big Ten championship at Lucas Oil Stadium make sense?
This is a hot-button conversation with no clear-cut answer.
Butt is in favor of scrapping the divisions. Penn State – another Big Ten East team – is the only other ranked team in the conference at No. 11 heading into Rivalry Week. The Big Ten East champion is 8-0 in the conference championship game since 2014. Ohio State and Michigan are clearly the best teams in the Big Ten in 2022.
"If you can do away with divisions you get a better chance of getting multiple teams in the College Football Playoff," Butt said. "The two best teams should play for the championship. That's the way I would do it."
Bacon said a tweak in the divisions would be better, with USC and UCLA staying in the West and one school – perhaps Purdue – shifting to the East.
"If USC and UCLA are in the West, then hell, it is competitive I think," Bacon said. "That might work, but you've got to find a way that Michigan and Ohio State cannot play twice. The more I think about it, this could be finally the thing that ruins arguably the greatest rivalry in sports."
Meyer sees the imbalance between the divisions. Either Ohio State or Michigan will be a heavy favorite in the Big Ten championship game. Meyer also sees the value of spreading out the success beyond the Big Two.
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"If the conference championship is designed only for the top two teams in the league then you have to eliminate divisions," Meyer said. "There's also the reality that there are a lot of teams over on that Western side of the Big Ten who will never ever play for a championship again. You have to ask yourself, 'Is that the right thing?' The higher-ups have to make the decision, but there is a clear delineation between the two."
Meyer also sees the allure of a Michigan-Ohio State rematch, especially from the player's point of view. It is about a chance to win a Big Ten championship.
"You’re certainly not getting the two best teams in your division a chance to play for a Big Ten championship, which is ultimately what everybody wants," Meyer said. "I think people are just going to adapt. That overrules everything else. The top two teams probably deserve to play for the championship and get a ring, and that won’t happen this year.”
No matter what happens with the Big Ten championship game, more Ohio State-Michigan matchups are coming with the expansion of the College Football Playoff. This is the price for the next chapter in college football. It creates a setup where the Buckeyes and Wolverines could play in the final week of the regular season, the Big Ten championship game and a third time in the College Football Playoff. Think the Duke-North Carolina men's basketball rivalry – which spilled into the Final Four for the first time last season during Mike Krzyzewski's farewell tour.
"Those guys play all the time," Bacon said. "They play twice in a season. They play in the ACC tournament most years. It's basketball. It's not the same and the whole idea of football you can't play the next day. You ask Archie Griffin – he went 3-0-1 against Michigan – he would say there's no way I could have played that game the next week. This is the be all and end all. There can't be a second act."
That no longer will be the case, and the cost will be paid in the regular season on some level. The regular-season matchup will be part of the story, and Bacon sees a comparison not all college football fans embrace.
"There is a decent chance if you split those two and they are good close games," Bacon said. "There is a very good chance those teams will play again through the four playoff games. At that point it's the NFL, and you've taken one more thing that is unique to college football and you've sold it for money."
The former players and coaches, however, see that as the price of admission for the next chapter of the game. Tressel won four Division I-AA national championships at Youngstown State before taking the Ohio State job in 2001.
"I was in the 16-team setup in I-AA and we always had teams from our league in the playoffs," Tressel said. "Now we're in the Missouri Valley and we get five or six teams in there. Inevitably in the semis or quarters we're meeting each other.
"I've always been a believer that whatever the rules of engagement are, you know them going in, and you've gotta find out if you're the best team," he said.
Butt said more Michigan-Ohio State will create more social-media fodder, and more games simply means more great material for the history of the rivalry.
"There's a lot of conversation year-round anyways," Butt said. "There would probably just be more conversation. The truth is it's hard to beat a good team twice. If one team does win twice, that would be very big bragging rights. That would be a tough year for the loser. If it's 1-1, then there are some going to be serious debates about who the real champion is."
Isn't that college football at its core? There also is the matter of whether the game would be moved from the regular-season finale because of the potential changes. Could that happen?
"No chance," Meyer said.
Fans on both sides would agree on that assessment.
This year's matchup might be the last time they meet with unbeaten records and the loser feels the full consequences. In this case, that means a consolation game at the Rose Bowl. It could be the first time both make the College Football Playoff. It also might be the last time they meet before a Big Ten championship rematch.
What is best for the best rivalry in college sports? It depends on how you look at it – and how quickly you can embrace Tressel's warning: "The only thing constant is change."
That will not be easy, and it will be interesting to see how 'they' handle it. In this case 'they' means everyone associated with The Game.
"These are great questions because this is the most-intense rivalry times 10 that I have ever been involved in," Meyer said. "The reality is when you go to a 12-team playoff these teams will cross paths after the rivalry game. That's just so hard for me because I'm such a traditionalist to put my arms around, but once again that's the way it is. So often in college sports someone makes a decision real quick, and then they think about the consequences. This is a real one."
