In the first of two College Football Playoff semifinal matchups on New Year’s Day, the top-seeded Michigan Wolverines (-1.5) seek their first-ever CFP win as they face off against the fourth-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide.
Michigan breezed through the regular season with a 13-0 record, capped off by a 26-0 shutout victory over Iowa in the Big Ten Championship. Despite head coach Jim Harbaugh missing three games due to the team's sign-stealing issues, the Wolverines took care of business under interim head coach Sherron Moore, defeating Penn State, Maryland, and Ohio State to finish out the regular season.
While this iteration of Saban's Crimson Tide isn’t as dominant as past teams, it's not wise to doubt 'Bama at this stage of the season. Despite some narrow victories, most notably over Auburn and Arkansas, the Crimson Tide are playing their best football when it matters most. Their 27-24 SEC Championship Game victory over the reigning back-to-back National Champion Georgia Bulldogs proved this team's as dangerous as any.
Compared to some of the other 1 vs. 4 matchups in the CFP, this season’s Rose Bowl figures to be one of the most competitive semifinal matchups, with the spread currently sitting at under two points in favor of Michigan.
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Will the Wolverines out-physical the Crimson Tide en route to their first national championship appearance under Jim Harbaugh, or will Alabama reach the title game as the No. 4 seed for a second time? For those looking to bet on Michigan-Alabama's CFP matchup, we'll give you all the information you need before placing a wager, including the updated odds from BetMGM, and our predictions for the Rose Bowl.
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Michigan vs. Alabama odds, spread, over/under
- Spread: Michigan -1.5 (-110) | Alabama +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 44.5 (-110) | UNDER 44.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Michigan -120 | Alabama +100
As mentioned above, this 1 vs. 4 matchup is set to close with the tightest spread in CFP history at 1.5 points. Michigan opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but that number has gone down to -1.5, so there isn’t much that separates these two teams on a neutral field. Like most projected close games, starting field position, turnovers, and red-zone efficiency will likely be the difference in this one.
The total of 44.5 points may appear a bit low considering Michigan (36.7 PPG; 14th in FBS) and Alabama (35.1 PPG; 19th) combine to average well above that total, but when matched up against each other, both defenses may very well have the upper hand against both offenses.
Should you bet Michigan against the spread?
Although it may be enticing to bet on the undefeated and top-ranked Wolverines at a cheap price, we’re more concerned about Michigan’s ability to consistently drive down the field and score compared to Alabama. Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy has done his job when called upon, completing an impressive 74.2 percent of his passes, but he hasn't been forced to lead the Wolverines on scoring drives with his arm due to the lopsided nature of most of Michigan's contests.
We’re not denying McCarthy's talent, but Michigan's offense is rather one-dimensional, and if Alabama's run defense, which just held Georgia to 78 rushing yards on 31 carries, can keep the Wolverines off-schedule, we’re not sure McCarthy can bail the offense out on obvious passing downs.
Part of that is due to Michigan’s receiving corps, as we’re worried about receivers Roman Wilson, Cornelius Johnson, and tight end Colson Loveland consistently creating separation against Alabama's elite coverage unit. Alabama's defense ranks 16th in dropback EPA (-0.064), so there are valid concerns about how the Wolverines can consistently move the ball through the air.
Alabama understands they need to keep running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards in check. If its front seven can win on early downs and contain Corum and Edwards, then Michigan's offense is in for a tough day. UM's offensive line has shown some leaks in pass protection, sporting Pro Football Focus' 53rd highest pass-blocking grade (70.6).
On the flip side, Alabama QB Jalen Milroe's dynamic play style gives Alabama multiple ways to attack the Wolverines' defense. Whether it’s his ability to extend plays outside the pocket with his legs or connect on chunk plays to receivers Jermaine Burton and Isaiah Bond, we trust Alabama’s offense a bit more in this matchup.
As a result, we'll back the fourth-seeded Crimson Tide to eke out a Rose Bowl win over the Wolverines. Bettors can take the +1.5 point spread at -110 or opt to bet on the moneyline at +100 for a slightly increased payout should the Crimson Tide emerge victorious.
Our pick: Alabama +1.5 (-110)
Final score prediction: Alabama 23, Michigan 20
Should you bet the Michigan vs. Alabama OVER?
Regarding the total, despite both teams ranking within the top 20 of the FBS in scoring offense, we expect a defensive battle. Therefore, we advise bettors to consider the UNDER 44.5 (-110).
Sure, Alabama's ability to generate explosive plays can make it tough to stomach betting the UNDER, but similar to how they understand the need to stop the run, Michigan understands that Milroe is an elite deep passer and will likely limit Alabama’s ability to take the top off their defense. Michigan's run-heavy nature could also lead to several lengthy drives, making the UNDER a bettor's best friend.
Our pick: UNDER 44.5 (-110)
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