After a dominating performance in the Peach Bowl, everyone expected LSU to be favored against either Clemson or Ohio State in the College Football Playoff national championship game. However, the oddsmakers obviously undersold LSU. The Bayou Bengals opened as just 3.5-point favorites per the college football betting odds, and that line moved a full two points in 12 hours.
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LSU vs. Clemson odds for 2019 CFP national championship
- LSU Tigers -5.5 vs. Clemson Tigers, O/U 69
If the line moves all the way to seven points, it will be the largest spread in the six-year history of the College Football Playoff. The largest spread we’ve seen before this was in the 2017 CFP championship game when Clemson upended Alabama as a 6.5-point underdog to win its first national title since 1981.
Clemson is used to being an underdog at this stage, though, as the Tigers have been underdogs of at least five points in their three previous trips to the national championship. They ended up winning it all in two of those three games, so this is familiar territory.
The total in this game has moved up a half-point from where it opened shortly after Clemson capped off its comeback against Ohio State. That makes it the second highest over/under in the history of the CFP. The 2015 CFP national championship had an over/under of 72.5 points, but the highest total in the four title games since then was last year when the over/under or Alabama and Clemson, Part III was set at 57.5.
Don’t be surprised if the spread ends up dropping closer to kickoff. The projected line in a hypothetical matchup between LSU and Clemson was a pick ‘em before the CFP semifinals. LSU’s blowout victory over Oklahoma is likely to be diminished over the next couple weeks as the Sooners are 0-4 in the CFP and were clearly the weakest team of the four.
LSU vs. Clemson history
These teams have only met three times in their history. Their first meeting was in the 1959 Sugar Bowl as LSU culminated its first national championship season with a 7-0 win over Clemson. The subsequent two meetings occurred in the Peach Bowl with LSU beating Clemson 10-7 in the 1996 edition and Clemson edging LSU 25-24 in the 2012 game.
How LSU got here
The Bayou Bengals have been the best team in the nation all year. LSU played one of the toughest schedules in the nation, but they brushed off opponents with relative ease. They ended the season with six wins over teams ranked in the top ten, starting with Texas in non-conference play.
LSU upended Florida and Auburn to set up a highly anticipated match-up with Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The Tigers ended up knocking off the Crimson Tide for the first time in eight seasons with 2019 Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow throwing for 393 yards and three touchdowns, paving the way for the Tigers to be the frontrunners in the SEC. LSU scored 50 or more points in its next three games to set up a date with Georgia in Atlanta, and the Tigers demolished the Bulldogs 37-10 in the SEC Championship Game.
Burrow was lights out against Oklahoma in the Peach Bowl. He threw for seven touchdowns in the first half against the Sooners and added a rushing touchdown in the second half to set a bowl record with eight total touchdowns.
How Clemson got here
Despite being the defending national champions, Clemson has been underrated all year. The Tigers were never ranked in the top two in the nation despite holding the longest win streak in the nation, and Dabo Swinney has seized upon that as a motivational ploy.
Clemson struggled through the first month of the season before a one-point win over North Carolina was the scare they needed to wake them up. The Tigers responded by winning its last seven regular season games by at least 31 points and hammering Virginia 62-17 in the ACC Championship Game.
The Tigers needed a similar wakeup call against Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl. The Buckeyes were up 16-0 midway through the second quarter before a late hit on Trevor Lawrence gave Clemson a spark. They subsequently went down the field and scored, starting a comeback that ended with the Tigers taking a 29-23 lead with under two minutes left in the fourth quarter and holding on to win.