No. 13 Kansas State hosts Texas Saturday night at Bill Snyder Family Stadium (7:00 p.m. ET on FS1) in a crucial Big 12 conference battle with championship game implications. Kansas State attempts to remain in second place in the Big 12 while Texas looks to avoid its third conference loss.
Kansas State is riding high after a dominant 48-0 win over Oklahoma State, a game in which they held one of the better offenses to just 217 total yards on 3.4 yards per play. The Wildcats' blowout win was the most lopsided shutout victory by any team facing a top-10 opponent since 1966. For a team that's built on its rushing attack, it was Kansas State's passing offense that stole the show on Saturday. Backup QB Will Howard filled in admirably for Adrian Martinez, completing 21-of-37 passes for 296 yards and four TDs through the air, potentially sparking a QB controversy.
Meanwhile, Texas comes into Week 10 off its bye week, most recently losing to the aforementioned Oklahoma State 41-34 in Week 8. Texas held an early 31-17 first-half lead in that one, but its offense was unable to put consistent drives together after the break, scoring just three second-half points in the loss. Can Texas regroup and notch a road victory over a tough Kansas State bunch, or will the Wildcats remain in a comfortable spot to return to the Big 12 title game for the first time since 2003?
MORE COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING: Week 10 ATS Picks
Here's everything to know about betting on the Week 10 matchup between the Wildcats and Longhorns:
Kansas State vs. Texas odds
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
- Spread: Texas -2.5
- Over/Under: 54.5
- Moneyline: Texas -140; Kansas State +118
After opening up as a pick 'em, Texas has moved to a 2.5-point road favorite. The total has also seen some movement, dropping down to 54.5 from an opening number of 58.5.
Three trends to know
—Texas hasn't fared well in Manhattan relative to the betting markets, posting a 1-8 ATS mark in its past nine trips to the Little Apple.
—Kansas State's been an ATS darling this season, entering Week 10 with a 6-2-1 ATS record.
— According to BetQL, Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman is 8-0 ATS against teams who force one or fewer turnovers per game during his tenure with the Wildcats.
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Three things to watch
—Which QB gets the starting nod for K-State?: Since getting thrust into game action following Martinez's injury early in the first quarter of the Wildcats' Week 8 matchup against TCU, Howard has done his part under center, sporting a 9:1 TD-to-INT rate with an elite 167.7 passer rating. While Martinez is the better overall athlete, there's no denying Howard has the hot hand at the moment. Even if Martinez (leg) is healthy enough to start, Howard could still get the starting nod.
It's worth noting that should Howard start, it would be his third appearance of the season, and head coach Chris Klieman has said that he'd prefer Howard to appear in fewer than five games to retain another year of eligibility. A potential trip to the Big 12 championship coupled with an appearance in a New Year's Six Bowl clearly complicates that.
—Texas' rush defense: Despite Howard's effectiveness through the air, Kansas State is a run-first team, entering Week 10 averaging the 11th-most rushing yards per game (228.0 YPG). Texas' run defense is one of the better units in the FBS, holding opponents to 3.32 YPC (21st in FBS) and sporting PFF's 11th-highest run defense grade (90.9).
Texas' ability to limit Kansas State's rushing effectiveness on early downs and put Howard and the Wildcats into more predictable passing down and distances could lead to a solid defensive performance on Saturday.
—A bounce-back performance from Ewers: Ewers' inconsistent play in Texas' Week 8 loss to Oklahoma State was a determining factor in the outcome of the game. Ewers completed just 19-of-49 passes for 319 yards, throwing two touchdowns and three interceptions. It was by far Ewers' worst performance, as he finished the game with a 43.5 QBR on 6.5 yards per completion. He wasn't able to connect on many intermediate-to-deep passes and was most effective at throwing swing passes to his receivers in the flat.
With over a week to watch film and regroup, expect a better performance out of Ewers. While he didn't fare well with a clean pocket last game, he's been at his best this season when kept clean, sporting a 10-to-2 TD-to-INT rate with a 71.4-percent adjusted completion percentage. Kansas State's pass rush is its' weakness, grading out in the bottom half of the FBS in pass rush grade per PFF (71.0). If the 'Cats aren't able to get Ewers under pressure, it might be a long day.
Kansas State vs. Texas Prediction
This spread might make bettors do a double-take after Kansas State handily defeated Oklahoma State and Texas collapsed against the same Cowboys in each team's most recent game, but Texas matches up well against K-State. The Longhorns' ability to hold the Wildcats' ground game in check coupled with a bounce-back performance from Ewers can lead Texas to a road win. We'll back the Longhorns to take down Kansas State, muddying up the Big 12 standings even more.
Prediction: Texas 31, Kansas State 28. Texas (-2.5) covers the spread with the game going OVER the total (54.5).
