Jim Harbaugh is a better NFL coach than a college coach, but he's better for college football than the NFL.
That's been my go-to assessment since Harbaugh left the San Francisco 49ers to take the Michigan job in 2015. On Tuesday, ESPN reported that Harbaugh had a conversation with Panthers owner David Tepper about the opening in Carolina.
Carolina wouldn't be the only potential suitor. Denver and Indianapolis could be options. What about Las Vegas?
Should Harbaugh entertain these offers and make the jump back to the NFL after back-to-back years of flirtation?
That depends on whether that assessment is still true seven years later. Let's break that into two parts to find out.
Is Jim Harbaugh a better NFL coach than college coach?
He had a 44-19-1 record and a .695 winning percentage in the NFL from 2011-14 – the sixth-highest winning percentage ever among NFL coaches with at least four seasons. The only active coach with a higher winning percentage is Green Bay's Matt LaFluer (.723) who also is in his fourth season. Harbaugh had five playoff wins in that stretch. He's also been out of the NFL for eight seasons.
He's broke through the last two seasons at Michigan with a 25-3 record, two Big Ten championships and two CFP appearances. He was 49-22 in the five seasons before that. Between that and Stanford, he has a .691 winning percentage at the college level.
At either level, you're getting a coach who wins almost 70% of the time. Harbaugh has denied the back-to-the-pros rumor at every turn, including on Dec. 4 when he said: "I think the people are going to be happy to know that I'll be enthusiastically coaching the Wolverines in 2023."
That was before the 51-45 loss to No. 3 TCU in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 31, 2022. Harbaugh made a puzzling decision at the goal line to run the "Philly Special," and the Horned Frogs ruined Michigan's best chance at a national championship since 1997. Would that be enough for Harbaugh to change his mind?
MORE: Mistakes, not missed calls, costs Michigan in loss to TCU
From very good sources: the possibility of Harbaugh leaving for the NFL is real. Could even happen fast.
— John U. Bacon (@Johnubacon) January 3, 2023
NOTHING FINAL, but IF he goes, it would not be because of money, NIL, control, or just about anything regarding UM, but his growing frustration with college football itself.
Now, that leads to the second question: Is college football or the NFL better for Harbaugh? He's clearly been wrestling with that question the last two off-seasons.
Is Harbaugh better for college football than the NFL?
That used to be the case. Harbaugh's quirky-meets-combative behavior was a hit in Ann Arbor upon his arrival, but he toned down some of the attention-seeking antics that defined the early part of his tenure.
College football has changed drastically in the last two years with the transfer portal and the implementation of NIL. Harbaugh has used the transfer portal with great success, but catching up in recruiting with Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State hasn't been easy.
The NFL hasn't changed nearly as much off the field. Free agency and the NFL Draft are mostly the same, and the college schemes have blended in with the NFL game. Harbaugh would still be a successful coach if he made the jump, and he's not too old. Harbaugh turns 60 this year. There are six coaches in the league that are 60 or older, and that list includes Pete Carroll, Bill Belichick, Andy Reid, Lovie Smith, Ron Rivera and John Harbaugh. Mike McCarthy and Todd Bowles turn 60 this year, too.
You have to reverse the question:
Verdict: Timing right if Harbaugh wants the NFL
The job security at Michigan is at an all-time high. The last two years at Michigan have been a success. He broke Michigan's losing streak to Ohio State in The Game, and the "born on third" jab at Ohio State's Ryan Day is the trump card in the rivalry, at least for this year.
That success, however, can be fleeting. Remember, Harbaugh lost the first five meetings against the Buckeyes. Each time he entertains the NFL, that can be used as negative recruiting by other schools.
Harbaugh also had a four-year shelf life with the 49ers and bickered with then-general manager Trent Baalke. Will a NFL team give Harbaugh the amount of control he wants – the kind that he gets at Michigan? That is another layer in the decision.
It's really on Harbaugh at this point. If one of those NFL suitors offers the job, then now is the time to go. He would have left Michigan in a much better place than he found it when you consider Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke went 46-42 at Michigan from 2008-14 before his arrival. Michigan is an attractive job again, and the successor would be in position to deal with the changes college football presents.
MORE: Where do the Big Ten's Big Two go from here after CFP losses?
Harbaugh, meanwhile, could entertain what it seems he's always wanted – and that's a shot at another Super Bowl.
"One of the things that was really kind of driving me is, you know, we were in San Francisco, we got that close to winning the Super Bowl," Harbaugh said in an interview with ESPN in September. "That's always been a thing. There's unfinished business there. But, hey, winning the national championship, I could be really happy with that, too. So that's the goal. That's the one we're chasing."
Which one does Harbaugh want to chase now?
That will answer the question whether he's better for the NFL or college in the near future.
