When it comes to hyped-up quarterbacks – especially with recruiting services since 2010 – it's OK to believe in the hype.
That was the realization after examining the SN 50 project looking at the top-50 most hyped draft prospects across the NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL through the last 50 years. That trend could be great news for Quinn Ewers, Arch Manning and Dylan Raiola, who were the No. 1 recruit for both 247Sports.com and Rivals.com each of the last three seasons.
SN 50: Ranking top draft prospects of last 50 years
Look at the quarterbacks who made our list, all but one of which were before 247Sports.com or Rivals.com had online player rankings. Peyton Manning (No. 6) and John Elway (No. 9) are in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Eli Manning (No. 47) won two Super Bowls with the New York Giants. Andrew Luck (No. 7) and Michael Vick (No. 16) had success. Ryan Leaf (No. 46) – who was selected with the No. 2 pick in the 1998 NFL Draft – is the lone bust among the list.
What about the generation of QBs who has carried a high recruiting ranking since high school? How have they handled the hype when they are the No. 1 recruit in the nation?
Trevor Lawrence (No. 34) is the other quarterback on our SN 50 list – and he also was ranked No. 1 by both Rivals.com and 247Sports.com in the 2018 recruiting rankings.
Before Lawrence, the previous two quarterbacks who were the No. 1 pick did not exactly live up to expectations at the NFL level.
Jimmy Clausen – who was the No. 1 recruit in 2007 – had an up-and-down college career. He was Notre Dame's most-hyped quarterback since Ron Powlus, who the late Beano Cook infamously predicted would win multiple Heismans for the Irish.
Clausen had a legendary high school career at Oaks Christian School in Westlake Village, Calif., and solid statistics in three years with the Irish, but those teams had a combined record of 16-21. Clausen was a second-round pick who did not catch on in the NFL.
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Terrelle Pryor – a dual-threat quarterback from Jeannette (Pa.) High School, was the No. 1 recruit in 2008. The 6-foot-4, 228-pound quarterback had a great three-year career with the Buckeyes but was suspended for five games to start the 2011 season. He opted for the 2011 Supplemental Draft. Pryor played seven NFL seasons – three at quarterback and four at receiver.
They met the hype in college to some degree, but neither quarterback sustained that to the NFL Draft.
Lawrence changed that. The Cartersville (Ga.) High School recruit led Clemson to a 34-2 record in three seasons, passed for 90 TDs and 17 interceptions and was the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. He led the Jacksonville Jaguars to the AFC divisional playoffs last season. Bryce Young – the No. 1 player in 2020 from Mater Dei (Santa Ana, Calif.) – lived up to the billing next. He won a Heisman Trophy at Alabama and was the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
That leaves the door wide open for the next three quarterbacks to live up to the hype of being the top recruit in the country. Like Lawrence, Ewers, Manning and Raiola were the No. 1 player by both recruiting services.
Ewers has become the poster child of sorts for the changes in college football. He skipped his senior season at Southlake Carroll (Texas) High School so he could take advantage of NIL opportunities at Ohio State, then transferred to Texas after the 2021 season. Ewers passed for 2,177 yards, 15 TDs and six interceptions last season – but he will generate NFL Draft interest in 2024 because of a strong arm. Will he push USC's Caleb Williams to be the No. 1 pick? That remains to be seen.
Manning, of course, will come with even more hype when he takes over for Ewers at Texas, even if that is not this season. The Isidore Newman (New Orleans) quarterback is following Peyton and Eli's footsteps, and that alone will generate hype leading up to the NFL Draft if he delivers with the Longhorns. That will amplify with Texas' move to the SEC.
That leaves Raiola, a Georgia commit who announced he is transferring to Buford (Ga.) High School this season. Raiola flipped from Ohio State to Georgia in the recruiting process, and he will be the next starting quarterback for a program that has won back-to-back national championships. He is the highest-ranked QB recruit at Georgia since Justin Fields, who transferred to Ohio State.
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Will those three quarterbacks live up to the hype like Lawrence and Young? Or will they slip like Clausen and Pryor before the draft? Our guess it's somewhere in between with Ewers, and Manning and Raiola will have work to do to be the No. 1 pick in their respective drafts. The talent is there, however, and most of these No. 1 quarterbacks had enough talent to be a No. 1 pick. In recent years, those recruiting services have been right.
That's why it's OK to believe the hype is real.
