Group of 5 early conference primer: Biggest games, New Year's Day Six busters and one big prediction

Bill Bender

Group of 5 early conference primer: Biggest games, New Year's Day Six busters and one big prediction image

UCF finished 13-0 and claimed a national championship in 2017. 

What does that mean for the Group of 5 in 2018? The Knights were the biggest Group of 5 buster out of the American Athletic Conference last season, and first-year coach Josh Heupel inherits a talented team that could make another run this season. Will that attract more attention in regard to the College Football Playoff?

MORE: 18 early questions for 2018 season

We shall see. UCF isn't the only G5 school returning a talented roster in 2018, however. With that in mind, Sporting News looks at the landscape across the Group of 5, which also includes the Mid-American Conference, Conference USA, Mountain West Conference and Sun Belt Conference. 

Way-too-early ranked teams

24. Memphis 
21. UCF 

Biggest storyline 

We've already touched on it: What will be the carry-over effect from UCF's Peach Bowl win over Auburn? Will the Knights use that to attract even more attention? Could another school piggy-back off that? When will the discussion about the Group of 5 and College Football Playoff come to a head?

MORE: Way-too-early top 25

Top Group of 5 busters 

UCF. The Knights have a new coach in Josh Heupel and a Heisman Trophy candidate in quarterback McKenzie Milton. If they can go undefeated again, those much-needed discussions will happen.

Memphis. Mike Norvell opted to stay with the Tigers, a sign he believes the program can take the next step. Memphis does have to replace some big-time playmakers with quarterback Riley Ferguson and receiver Anthony Miller.

Florida Atlantic. Lane Kiffin flipped the Owls into Conference USA champions in one season. With a 10-year extension, he might stick around in Boca Raton for a while. In other words, get used to it

Boise State. The Broncos won the Mountain West Conference last season and have a solid core returning with two interesting nonconference games. More on that in a bit. 

Ohio. The Bobcats are still searching for that first MAC championship since 1968, but the combination of ageless Frank Solich and quarterback Nathan Rourke, who totaled 39 touchdowns from scrimmage last season, is a good start toward that goal. 

Heisman hopefuls 

McKenzie Milton, QB, UCF. Milton accounted for 4,650 yards and 45 touchdowns last season, and he's at the controls again for the Knights. The numbers should be there. 

Ed Oliver, DT, Houston. Oliver is a two-time All-American and considered by many the best prospect in the 2019 NFL Draft, but he'd need to put up ridiculous numbers to get an invite to New York.

Devin Singletary, RB, FAU. Singletary has the stats to win a Heisman: He rushed for 1,918 yards and 32 touchdowns last season. A 2,000-yard season is the next step.

2018 LOOKAHEAD: ACC | SEC | B10 | B12 | P12

10 best nonconference games

FAU at Oklahoma, Sept. 1. If the Owls pull an upset here, it would be the biggest story of Week 1. The teams have already started talking smack.

Appalachian State at Penn State, Sept. 1. The Mountaineers always come with the “upset alert” tag, but it has been a while since they've pulled one off in Week 1.

San Diego State at Stanford, Sept. 1. The Cardinal will be looking for revenge after losing 20-17 to the Aztecs on the road in 2017. 

Boise State at Troy, Sept. 1. The Broncos are always in these discussions, but they'll have to earn it on the road here. Then, two weeks later … 

Boise State at Oklahoma State, Sept. 15. This is a huge opportunity to score a victory at a perennial Big 12 powerhouse. 

Arkansas State at Alabama, Sept. 8. If you're going to take a swing at the king, why not do it early?

Miami (Fla.) at Toledo, Sept. 15. Is this the biggest game in the history of the Glass Bowl?

FAU at UCF, Sept. 22. It's a showcase for both schools, and it's arguably the best game of that week. Perhaps ESPN's "College GameDay" will get in on the act.

Memphis at Missouri, Oct. 20. The Tigers have knocked off Ole Miss and UCLA recently, and being Missouri's homecoming opponent will only motivate them. 

Navy vs. Notre Dame, Oct. 27 (in San Diego). We love that the Midshipmen and Irish will play this one at Qualcomm Stadium. 

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Bold early prediction 

One of those Group of 5 busters will go to the New Year's Day Six Bowl with an undefeated record, marking the third straight season that has happened. The only question is whether they'll generate enough attention in nonconference play.

Three-year trends: Best G5 records

A look at the top 15 Group of 5 schools, by win percentage, the last three seasons: 

SCHOOL W L PCT
San Diego State 32 9 .780
Appalachian State 30 9 .769
Toledo 30 9 .769
South Florida 29 9 .763
Boise State 30 10 .750
Houston 29 10 .744
Western Kentucky 29 12 .707
Memphis 27 12 .692
Western Michigan 27 12 .692
Navy 27 13 .675
Temple 27 14 .659
Troy 25 13 .658
Arkansas State 24 14 .632
Louisiana Tech 25 15 .625
Ohio 25 15 .625

Bill Bender

Bill Bender Photo

Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.