No. 2 Oklahoma (12-1) faces No. 3 Georgia (12-1) in the College Football Playoff semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game on Jan. 1 (5 p.m., ESPN), a matchup of traditional powers from the Big 12 and SEC.
Remarkably, this is the first meeting between the teams. It's also a contrast of styles: Oklahoma features a high-flying offense under first-year coach Lincoln Riley and Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield, while Georgia plays old-school football under Sporting News Coach of the Year Kirby Smart. The Bulldogs are led by All-American linebacker Roquan Smith.
GEORGIA-OKLAHOMA: Rose Bowl predictions
How will this play out? Here are some numbers that could determine the matchup:
Plus-5
Georgia and Oklahoma each had a plus-five turnover margins this season. The Bulldogs committed 13 turnovers while forcing 18, and the Sooners committed 12 turnovers while forcing 17. Turnovers always matter, but with two disciplined offenses, they could be a game-changer. That puts more pressure on Mayfield and Georgia's Jake Fromm to protect the football. Keep in mind, in their respective losses this season, the Sooners and Bulldogs each had a minus-one turnover margin. A plus-two turnover margin in this game, then — for either team — could be the difference.
5.8
The Bulldogs averaged 5.8 yards per carry as a team this season and have four running backs who average over 5 yards per carry in Nick Chubb (6.2), Sony Michel (7.2), D'Andre Swift (8.2) and Elijah Holyfield (5.9). The key for the Sooners will be to knock that to under 4.5 yards per carry. Georgia averaged 4.3 yards in its 20-19 victory against Notre Dame, and 1.4 yards per game in a 40-17 loss to Auburn.
93 percent
Georgia (48 of 50) and Oklahoma (59 of 65) combined to score on 107 of 115 red zone trips this season. In other words, they score 93 percent of those trips. Even more, they score touchdowns 71.3 percent of those trips. Field goals won't be enough in this game: You'll have to score touchdowns every time.
.473
Big games often come down to third-down conversions. The Bulldogs finished seventh nationally in converting 47.3 percent of their third downs. Oklahoma ranked 39th on third down, with a 43.1 conversion percentage. The Sooners ran 63 more offensive plays than Georgia this season; if one of these teams hits around .450 on third down, then they'll be in business.
206.9
Oklahoma's passing efficiency rating, the only school in the FBS with a rating of more than 200. Georgia will try to disrupt Mayfield, whose lowest passer rating in a game this season was 167.1 (which would still rank him fifth nationally among FBS teams). The Bulldogs ranked sixth nationally in pass efficiency defense, at 108.07. We'll find out how good Mayfield is against a defense that shuts down the pass.
