We picked Florida State to win the ACC.
There, it was said out loud. Is this an admission of guilt or a need to justify a bad pick? Maybe both. At the time, it made sense.
Memphis – the most-attractive Group of 5 playoff contender – beat Florida State 20-12 at Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday. That dropped the Seminoles to 0-3.
What did we miss again, besides everything? The Seminoles were coming off an ACC championship in 2023 and had enough talent back in the always wide-open conference to make another run. This was the our final prediction excerpt in our ACC predictions on Aug. 22:
"Road games at Miami (Oct. 26) and Notre Dame (Nov. 9) and the season finale against Florida (Nov. 30) all are part of a high-difficulty schedule, but Norvell plugged enough holes through the transfer portal that we think Florida State is the safest team among that top tier with Clemson, Miami and NC State."
Did that sound crazy enough at the time? So, what did we miss besides everything?
How did Florida State drop to 0-3?
We cited the road games at Miami, Notre Dame and Florida. We forget the unranked slate of Georgia Tech, Boston College and Memphis. Florida State went out of the top 10 to maybe out of a bowl game. A miserable trip to Dublin and two losses at home. What is happening?
HISTORY: Florida State is the first preseason top 10 team in history to start 0-3 against three unranked opponents.
— Shehan Jeyarajah (@ShehanJeyarajah) September 14, 2024
The rushing defense was better against the Tigers – Memphis managed 65 yards on 2.0 yards per carry. The problem was Florida State rushed for 37 yards on 1.5 yards per carry.
Norvell was praised for his work in the transfer portal in 2023 – and was in the running for the “Portal King” crown, which is a thing for some reason. The Seminoles had 17 players come in and 22 players go out, and that seemed fine. We even wrote “We think Norvell plugged enough holes through the portal.”
We're hammering him now because DJ Uiagalelei is not working out at quarterback. Uiagalelei was 16 of 30 for 201 yards and an interception against Memphis. Uiagalelei is now 56 of 99 (56.6%) for one TD and two interceptions through three games. He is averaging 222 passing yards per game. That has Florida State fans skipping right past backup Brock Glenn to four-star freshman Luke Kromenhoek. Bottom line? Sometimes transfer roulette with quarterbacks with one-year rental quarterbacks busts. That is what happened here.
Florida State also lost 10 players to the 2023 NFL Draft. Some programs – Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State – can absorb that. Others can't. Michigan – which had 13 players selected in the 2024 NFL Draft – is going through the same process as Florida State but has not started Big Ten play yet. LSU – which had 14 players selected in the 2019 NFL Draft – finished 5-5 the following season.
How much of this did Florida State bring on itself?
The Seminoles' downfall since CFP snub
Florida State beat Louisville 16-6 in the 2023 ACC championship game on Dec. 2, 2023. The Seminoles were left out of the CFP the following day despite a 13-0 record – due in part to the season-ending injury quarterback Jordan Travis suffered against North Alabama two weeks earlier.
Florida State's response to that, was, well …
The school filed a lawsuit against the ACC on Dec. 21 and is actively trying to challenge the Grant of Rights deal and exit fee to leave the conference. A total of 23 players opted out of the Orange Bowl against Georgia – a team that also could have argued it was snubbed based on one bad half against Alabama in the SEC championship game.
The Bulldogs routed the Seminoles 63-3, and nothing has been the same in Tallahassee since.
That was a tantrum that backfired. How much of this misery was self-inflicted? A lot, and that is why it is easy to pile on a program that appeared to be reverting to its 1990s look of every-year contention but instead looks like an average ACC team that will have to claw to get to 6-6 and bowl eligibility instead.
Is Mike Norvell on the hot seat?
Florida State opens ACC play against Cal on Sept. 28 – another double-check moment that will offer the Seminoles another home game. Norvell isn't on the hot seat yet – he isn't even on the hottest seat among the three major powers in the state of Florida. That honor belongs to Billy Napier in the short term.
Uiagalelei likely will stick at quarterback, too, at least until Kromenhoek is ready to take the job. Florida State will struggle in those games against Miami, Notre Dame and Florida, but could it steal one or two of those games? Maybe. Norvell's biggest challenge will be keeping his hold of his team in the locker room. Texas A&M fired Jimbo Fisher – the former Florida State coach – and still finished 7-6 last season.
As shocking as that forecast is now, that is the bed the Seminoles have made – the last team left out in the four-team era and the first top-10 team to completely bust in the 12-team era. We owned our bad preseason pick.
What will the Seminoles do to own this poor start?
