In one of the more notable games of the bowl season's opening weekend, the 9-3 Oregon State Beavers look to notch their seventh win in eight games as they face the 6-6 Florida Gators at Allegiant Stadium in the Las Vegas Bowl (2:30 p.m. ET, ABC). As is the case for most bowl games, the Gators are dealing with numerous losses across all their position groups with players opting out and entering the transfer portal.
Florida will most notably be without their starting quarterback Anthony Richardson and first-team All-American right guard O’Cyrus Torrence. Both players are forgoing the Las Vegas Bowl to prepare for the 2023 NFL Draft. Oregon State is only dealing with two key losses, as tight end Luke Musgrave is opting out while cornerback Rejzohn Wright recovers from thumb surgery.
Following an upset win over then-No. 7 Utah in Week 1, Florida disappointed in Billy Napier's first season, losing four of its last six games to finish with a .500 record. Oregon State, meanwhile, just handed out a new six-year contract to head coach Jonathan Smith after he led the Beavers to their second-straight winning season.
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Can Oregon State notch their first 10-win season since 2006 or will the Gators play spoiler in Sin City? Here's everything to know about betting on the Las Vegas Bowl between the Gators and Beavers:
Florida vs. Oregon State odds
- Spread: Oregon State -8.5 (-110); Florida +8.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 52.5
- Moneyline: Oregon State -350; Florida +260
After opening as 7.5-point favorites, Oregon State was bet up past the key number of 10 to 10.5. With Richardson opting out, a double-digit spread was warranted here. However, the point spread is now at 8.5, just hours before kickoff. The total's also been on the move, ticking down to 52.5 after opening at 56.5.
Three trends to know
— Albeit a small sample size, Florida is 3-0 ATS this season as an underdog of 10 or more points. In those games, the Gators covered against Tennessee (+11), Georgia (+23), and Florida State (+10).
— Oregon State was one of the most profitable ATS teams during the regular season, sporting the second-highest cover rate (83.3 percent; 10-2 ATS).
— According to BetQL, "the Beavers won six of their final seven games of the season while also winning six in a row ATS to close out the season, including an upset of rival Oregon in their regular-season finale."
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Three things to watch
—How does Florida replace Richardson?: Despite inconsistent play throughout the season, not having Richardson is a crusher to the Gators' hopes of ending Billy Napier's first season with an above-.500 record. Richardson's volatility was always a bit challenging to handicap. His potential for big plays through the air or on the ground is now scrapped from the handicap, but can the offense do anything through the air with Jack Miller thrust into QB1 duties? Florida's offense figures to have trouble moving the ball against an Oregon State defense that ranks 10th in EPA per pass allowed.
—Oregon State's rush defense: Along with having a stout secondary, Oregon State ranks 20th in fewest rushing yards allowed per game (114) but now faces a Florida offense that figures to rely heavily on the ground game without its QB1. Florida enters the bowl season averaging the 15th-most rushing yards per game (213.7). If the Beavers' run defense is efficient on early downs, OSU will have a good shot of notching its 10th win of the season.
—Does Ben Gulbranson need to do much as a passer?: With Oregon State's offense maintaining a ground-heavy approach, Gulbranson hasn't been asked to do much as a passer this season. He's thrown for over 200 yards in just one of the Beavers' past six games, most recently throwing for 60 yards on six-of-13 passing in Oregon State's 38-34 win over Oregon. If Oregon State were to fall behind, relying on someone who graded out as PFF's 217th-best QB (60.0) is a bit worrisome.
Florida vs. Oregon State Prediction
Oregon State's correctly priced as fairly hefty favorites in this one, but the current line is a bit too steep of a price. Florida has a shot to keep this one within the current number, as we don't expect Oregon State to gain too big of a margin without an elite passing game. We do agree with the steam move on the UNDER, as both teams want to run often, but we can't advise laying 8.5 points with the Beavers.
Prediction: Oregon State 28, Florida 20. Florida (+8.5) covers the spread with the game going UNDER the total (52.5).
