No. 12 Florida takes on No. 20 Kentucky in a matchup between two ranked SEC East teams at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium at Gainesville, Fla., on Saturday.
Game time is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. The matchup will be televised on ESPN. This also is a matchup between two quarterbacks NFL scouts will have their eyes on.
The Billy Napier era took off faster than expected at Florida (1-0), which knocked off No. 13 Utah 29-26 in Week 1. Anthony Richardson delivered a thrilling performance by ground and air – and even spinning in the air – for the Gators. That's changed the trajectory of expectations for Florida in the SEC, and the Wildcats are the next obstacle.
Kentucky (1-0) also got off to the right start with a 37-13 victory against Miami, Ohio. Mark Stoops continues to deliver at Kentucky, and he's turned the Florida game into a real rivalry. Quarterback Will Levis threw for 303 yards and three TDs in the opener. This is another statement game for Levis and the Wildcats.
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The Wildcats and Gators have split the last four meetings in a one-sided series that typically favors Florida. Here is everything you need to know about Saturday's matchup:
Florida vs. Kentucky odds
- Spread: Florida -5.5
- Over/under: 51.5
- Moneyline: Florida -238, Kentucky +195 (Caesars Sportsbook)
The line opened at 4.5, and it would have been interesting to see whether Kentucky would have been favored if the Gators would have lost to the Utes. Still, the line movement does make it tempting to accept value in the Wildcats.
Three trends to know
— Kentucky did win at The Swamp in 2018 – a 27-16 victory that broke a losing streak that extended back to 1979. Florida, however, won the last home game against the Wildcats 34-10 in 2020.
— Kentucky is 3-7 S/U as an underdog since 2020, but they are 5-5 ATS in those games. The Wildcats are 2-5 S/U and 3-4 ATS as a road underdog in the same stretch.
— How will the Gators fare as a favorite under Napier? Since 2020, Florida is 13-7 S/U but 6-14 ATS as a favorite, and 9-1 S/U but 5-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Three things to watch
— Containing Anthony Richardson. Richardson was a changeup against Kentucky last year, so it's not like they haven't seen him. He had 168 passing yards and 106 rushing yards in the opener, and that poses a challenge for Kentucky to stay in front of him. Jacquez Jones, J.J. Wever and DeAndre Square are a talented group of linebackers, and Alex Afari Jr. is a playmaker in the secondary. Richardson isn't easy to contain, even when he's contained. Let's see that fake jump pass spin move again …
Anthony Richardson with a jump pass pump fake. Absurd. pic.twitter.com/CeUIIldWOo
— Chris Hummer (@chris_hummer) September 4, 2022
— Will Levis' efficiency. The Wildcats won 20-13 last year, but it was not a pretty victory. A blocked field goal return for a TD swung momentum in Kentucky's favor, which made up for a rough offensive outing. The Wildcats were 1 of 9 on third down in that game, and that can't happen on the road against a talented Florida defense led by safety Trey Dean III and linebackers Ventrell Miller and Brenton Cox. That's a veteran group that still allowed too much on the ground against Utah at 5.9 yards per carry. The problem for Kentucky is there is no word on whether star tailback Chris Rodriguez Jr., who was suspended for the opener, will be available for this game. That would put Kavosiey Smoke back in the lead back role.
— Red-zone offense. Kentucky scored on 5 of 6 of its trips (three TDs, two field goals) in the red-zone against Miami, and they can't make the same mistakes Utah did in the red zone on two missed trips against the Gators. Florida was a perfect 3 of 3 with TDs on its three trips to the red zone, and Richardson scored on a pair of short TD runs.
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Stat that matters
Richardson jumped into the way-too-early Heisman discussion with his play-making skills in Week 1, and it comes down to yards per play. Between Richardson's running and passing plays against Utah; the Gators averaged 7.5 yards per play. That compares to Alabama's Bryce Young – who was at 8.9 yards per play against Utah State – a far more inferior opponent. Levis averaged 7.3 yards per play, and that's with -18 rushing yards. Levis can make that kind of impact in the passing game, even on the road.
Florida vs. Kentucky prediction
This is a fun early-season quarterback duel, and there is some caution knowing the potential over-reaction to Richardson's Week 1 performance. This will be more entertaining than last year's slugfest. Kentucky will lead early, but Richardson's magic act continues behind another assortment of big plays. Tack on an extra TD for the over, too. Florida makes it 2-0 at the Swamp, and it's going to be tough to not to peek ahead to that Sept. 24 trip to Tennessee.
Final score: Florida 33, Kentucky 26
