Five-star recruits to first-round NFL Draft picks: Which schools best convert elite signees to top pro prospects?

When Rivals.com and 247Sports.com hand out a five-star rating to a high school prospect, they are projecting that player to be a first-round NFL Draft pick. Needless to say, far more five-stars do not end up being first-round picks than do, and it is fairly amazing the scouting services get as many hits as they do.

Using Rivals data for the classes from 2010 to 2019, 21 percent of the five-stars went on to be first-round picks. The Sporting News decided to see which schools did the best job of signing five-stars that maintained their elite status and were picked in the first round of the NFL Draft.

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Five-star destinations

There were 10 schools that signed at least 10 five-stars during the 10-year span, and 20 schools that signed five or more. Alabama was far and away the top choice for five-stars during this time, and also far and away the most successful at turning those five-stars into first-rounders. Alabama’s 2013 signing class saw five-stars Jonathan Allen, O.J Howard and Reuben Foster all selected in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft (and A’Shawn Robinson went in the second round in 2016). Alabama’s 2015 five-star group included first-rounders Calvin Ridley, Daron Payne and Minkah Fitzpatrick, and the Tide’s 2017 class put four out of their five five-stars into the first round (Najee Harris, Alex Leatherwood, Jerry Jeudy, Jedrick Wills). 

Florida and Clemson also did a good job getting their five-stars into the first-round. Florida went 5-for-7 between its 2010 and 2012 classes (Matt Elam, Sharrif Floyd, Dominque Easley, D.J. Humphiries and Dante Fowler Jr.). Clemson had at least one five-star go in the first round in six of the 10 years of the study, including quarterbacks DeShaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence.

USC signed the second-most five-stars during that period, but only two were picked in the first round.

Here are the 10 schools that signed at least 10 Rivals five-stars from 2010 to 2019.

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Among the next tier of destinations, Ole Miss takes the lead spot with a 50 percent conversion rate thanks to a single class. In 2013, Hugh Freeze signed Robert Nkemdiche, Laquon Treadwell and Laremy Tunsil, all of whom went on to be picked in the first round three years later. Tunsil went No. 13 overall to Miami (after a bizarre draft night drop when video leaked of him smoking marijuana while wearing a gas mask), Treadwell was picked No. 23 by Minnesota and Nkemdiche was selected by Arizona at No. 29. The only other school to have two players in this group was Texas A&M (Myles Garrett and Kenyon Green). Oklahoma signed the most five-stars without having any picked in the first round.

Because parameters are necessary to consistently evaluate the data, there are some exceptions that stand out. Quarterback Justin Fields, for example, was a Georgia five-star who transferred to Ohio State and was a first-round pick. Because Ohio State did not sign him, it does not get credit in this study. Also, Georgia’s Nolan Smith and Ohio State’s Zach Harrison may be picked in the first round this year as fifth-year seniors, which would change their scores. And of course there were a few players who were drafted very early in the second round who would have swayed some percentages.

Three schools managed to bat 1.000, with Mississippi State going 2-for-2 (Jeffery Simmons, Charles Cross) and Arizona State (N'Keal Harry) and Houston (Ed Oliver) going 1-for-1.