With two weeks left in the college football season, ESPN "College GameDay" analyst Kirk Herbstreit sees how the one-loss teams stack up for that final College Football Playoff spot, if the chalk holds.
Georgia, likely to remain ranked at No. 4 in the next set of Playoff rankings, is in the best position if it can win out and beat LSU in the SEC championship game. No. 7 Utah is in position to slide into that fourth spot with a Pac-12 championship. If those two teams lose, however, Herbstreit is willing to preemptively size up what could be the final argument if No. 1 LSU, No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Clemson win out.
Who would the committee choose between No. 5 Alabama and No. 9 Oklahoma?
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"You could make a very strong case a 12-1 Big 12 champ Oklahoma is going to go by Alabama at that point," Herbstreit told Sporting News. "I think how these games are played, even though it's 12 or 13 games and we're supposed to look at that, how these next two weeks are played will go a long way if it comes down to Oklahoma and Alabama, which would be ironic given Jalen Hurts is involved."
Alabama (10-1) closes its season with a matchup against No. 16 Auburn (8-3) in the Iron Bowl at Jordan-Hare Stadium on Saturday. The Crimson Tide beat Western Carolina 66-3 last week in their first game without star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who was lost for the season on Nov. 16 with a hip injury. The Iron Bowl will serve as that moment for backup quarterback Mac Jones to impress the committee, much like Ohio State backup quarterback Cardale Jones did in the Big Ten championship in 2014.
"They are the team that doesn't have the resume and they don't have their star player," Herbstreit said. "If there ever been a team that has the eye test, it's Alabama against Auburn."
Alabama, of course, will not play in the SEC championship game. That scenario didn't stop the Crimson Tide from holding off Ohio State for the final Playoff spot in 2017. The Buckeyes knocked No. 4 Wisconsin off the No. 4 spot in the Big Ten championship, but the 27-21 score affected the perception.
"I remember thinking going into the day thinking if Ohio State beats Wisconsin, they are kind of punching their ticket," Herbstreit said. "If you remember that game, they kind of were OK. It wasn't crisp, and it opened the door. Alabama, of course, went on to win the national championship."
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Oklahoma (10-1), meanwhile, hasn't exactly won the perception battle. The Sooners lost 48-41 to Kansas State on Oct. 26, and had close calls against Iowa State, Baylor and TCU, teams they beat by a combined eight points. The Sooners face No. 21 Oklahoma State before a rematch with No. 11 Baylor in the Big 12 championship game.
"They are kind of limping to the finish line, but they still have ranked teams to play in their final two games," Herbstreit said. "They have this opportunity to play and try to play well."
Herbstreit believes the best method of separation would come in the conference championship game. That is the card Alabama cannot play, and Oklahoma would need to take advantage of.
"That would be the game if you're an OU fan and you want to win and look good doing it to potentially separate themselves from Alabama," Herbstreit said. "I just kind of say as a guy who typically thinks of Alabama as, 'Hey guys, sorry, they are one of the best,' I just don't personally feel that way."
So, how do the Crimson Tide get that No. 4 spot? Herbstreit sees a chain of events that must happen first for that door to open again.
"I think if you are an Alabama fan, you want LSU to win out and eliminate Georgia, you want Utah to stumble to Oregon or Colorado," he said. "Then, you need Oklahoma to fall to Oklahoma State or Baylor. If all those things happen, it's going to be, 'Who else are you going to put in other than Alabama?'"
Herbstreit continued his partnership with Allstate this season, which has added the Allstate Playoff Predictor. He predicts the Allstate Mayhem Moment every Tuesday on Twitter. "College football is pretty easy to come up with some Mayhem moments," he said. "The hard part is to try to locate one this week."
