College football Week 9 primer: Heisman Watch, upset picks, predictions and more

Bill Bender

College football Week 9 primer: Heisman Watch, upset picks, predictions and more image

Week 9 of the college football season features three games between ranked teams in the last week of October.  

No. 13 Wisconsin travels to No. 3 Ohio State (Noon ET, FOX), No. 9 Auburn visits No. 2 LSU (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS) and No. 8 Notre Dame visits No. 19 Michigan (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC). Those are the three games that will have the most impact on the College Football Playoff rankings – where are nearing their first unveiling on Nov. 5.  

Every week, Sporting News will survey the landscape looking for Heisman contenders, coaches on the spot, upset alerts and other trends. With that in mind, get ready for Week 9:   

WEEK 9 PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread

Heisman watch   

Of the four running backs who entered Week 9 with at least 900 yards rushing, Ohio State's J.K. Dobbins (947 yards, 7.1 yards per carry) has the highest yards per carry. That's better than Oklahoma State's Chuba Hubbard (1,265, 6.5), Boston College's AJ Dillon (968, 5.4) and Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor (957 yards, 6.1).  

Dobbins and Taylor will be on the same field Saturday when the Buckeyes and Badgers meet. Taylor has more than twice as many TDs as Dobbins at 15 to seven, but Dobbins is on the higher-ranked team– one that could knock the Badgers out of the College Football Playoff race on Saturday.  

Dobbins has 470 rushing yards in Ohio State's last three games, and he could emerge as at least the same kind of Heisman candidate as teammate Justin Fields with a big showing here. Showing up the nation's top run defense would go a long way in doing that.  

Eddie George, Ohio State's last running back to win the Heisman Trophy, hit up Wisconsin for 26 carries, 141 yards and three TDs in a 27-16 victory in 1995.  

An effort like that would put Dobbins right in the mix as a Heisman candidate.  

Coach on the spot  

Gus Malzahn's job status is never a dull topic, and that could kick up if Auburn gets run out of Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, La., on Saturday.  

It's a chance for Auburn to play against another top-10 opponent after losing 24-13 at Florida on Oct. 5. Malzhan is 7-13 against top-10 teams since taking over in 2013. A look at his year-by-year record:  

YEAR RECORD
2013 3-2

2014 1-2
2015 0-1
2016 0-3
2017 2-2
2018 1-2
2019 0-1

A loss would drop him to 7-14 – or a 33.3 percent success rate against top-10 teams. No. 1 Alabama and No. 10 Georgia visit Jordan-Hare Stadium. If Malzahn goes 0-4 in those big games, then the conversations could get creative at the end of the season.  

Upset alert   

Two playoff hopefuls should be careful this week.  

No. 6 Penn State, fresh off a 28-21 victory against Michigan, looks like the better bet than Wisconsin to challenge Ohio State for the Big Ten championship. The Nittany Lions, however, must avoid the upset bug at Michigan State.  

The Spartans have won five of the last six meetings and are coming off a much-needed bye week. Penn State coach James Franklin is 1-4 against the Spartans with one-score losses the last two seasons.  

No. 11 Oregon is generating some playoff buzz for the Pac-12, but face Washington State – which has won the last four meetings. The Ducks were ranked in last year's matchup, too, and all bets are off when Mike Leach is involved.  

Over/under   

Clemson dropped to No. 4 in the AP Poll this week, which prompted the always-quotable Dabo Swinney to offer up a pointed defense of the Tigers.  

"I'm not surprised at all," Swinney said via 247Sports.com. "We are winning by an average of 28 points and last year this time we were winning by 28.7 points. That 0.7 is elusive. It's probably the greatest 0.7 there is. We're chasing that." 

When it comes to that point differential, the chase is on with the other unbeaten Power 5 teams …  

TEAM PF PA DIFF
Ohio State (7-0) 348 56 292
Alabama (7-0) 341 115 226
Oklahoma (7-0) 353 136 217
LSU (7-0) 351 140 211
Penn State (7-0) 280 70 210
Clemson (7-0) 280 84 196
Baylor (7-0) 272 134 138
Minnesota (7-0) 255 105 150

That point differential is a good barometer knowing this is probably the top six teams in the first Playoff rankings if the chalk holds.  

Clemson is right where they need to be knowing Alabama plays LSU and Ohio State plays Penn State. All the Tigers need to do is keep winning in the ACC, and the margin of victory does not matter as much as everybody thinks it does.  

Even if Dabo will chase that elusive 0.7 anyway.  

Think about it …   

Notre Dame and Michigan will meet for the last time for the foreseeable future on Saturday – so expect two members of the 900-win club to play like they mean it.  

It's a weird spot in the schedule for this game, but it should produce the usual close game at Michigan Stadium.  

Consider that since the teams began playing on a semi-regular basis in 1978, Notre Dame leads the series 16-15-1. Both teams have been ranked 29 times, and the higher ranked team is 12-16-1 in that stretch. A total of 19 of those games have been decided by a TD or less.  

The winner will have that trump card for years to come unless they meet in a bowl game.  

Enjoy every second of this classic knowing there is no telling when we might see it again.

Bill Bender

Bill Bender Photo

Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.