College football Week 6 primer: Heisman watch, upset picks, predictions and more

The first week of October is here, and Week 6 of the college football season features three matchups between AP Top 25 teams.

No. 14 Iowa and No. 19 Michigan (noon, FOX) collide in a Big Ten showdown at Michigan Stadium. No. 7 Auburn travels to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium to face No. 10 Florida (3:30 p.m., CBS) in a battle of unbeatens. No. 25 Michigan State goes on the road to meet No. 4 Ohio State (7:30 p.m., ABC), meaning the Buckeyes will be in the primetime spotlight again.

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Every week, Sporting News will survey the landscape looking for Heisman contenders, coaches on the spot, upset alerts and other trends. With that in mind, get ready for Week 6:

Heisman watch

You can make a strong argument Ohio State defensive end Chase Young is the best player in the country. He leads the nation with eight sacks. The 6-5, 265-pounder is a big reason why the No. 4 Buckeyes look the nation's most complete team through September.

When asked about Young this week, Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio was quick to make a joke.

“I would say I really haven't thought of him in the human context,” Dantonio said at his news conference.

Young has been superhuman to this point. We made this argument with Nick Bosa last year, and he was subsequently injured for the season. Not to jinx Young, but a big-time performance in the primetime spotlight against Michigan State could bolster his Heisman campaign.

Eight defensive linemen have finished in the top five of the Heisman voting, including Iowa's Alex Karras (second), Miami's Ted Hendricks (fifth), Penn State's Mike Reid (fifth), Nebraska's Rich Glover (third), Notre Dame's Ross Browner (fifth), Pitt's Hugh Green (second), Washington's Steve Emtman (fourth) and Nebraska's Ndamukong Suh (fourth).

Young likely won't get to New York City, but if he gets at least one sack in every game and makes a run at 20 for the season, then maybe he should.

Coaches on the spot

The Mitten State is in focus with the Spartans (4-1) and Wolverines (3-1) playing ranked teams, and that means Dantonio and Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh are on the spot.

The last time both schools had at least two losses at the midpoint of the season at the same time was 2012. Michigan beat Michigan State 12-10 that season, but it was part of a nondescript year in which the Wolverines finished 8-5 and the Spartans finished 7-6.

A Michigan loss would get more attention given the reaction to a 35-14 beatdown at Wisconsin two weeks ago. The Wolverines at least get No. 14 Iowa (4-0) at home, and it should be a tight game.

Michigan State travels to Ohio State. The Spartans are the last Big Ten team to win at Ohio Stadium, which they pulled off with a 17-14 victory in 2015. Michigan State also lost 48-3 on their last visit in 2017.

If Michigan loses at home to Iowa and Michigan State is knocked out by Ohio State on Saturday, then this season could trend in that direction for those schools.

WEEK 6 PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread

Upset alert

Here are two games that we are more interested in:

UCF travels to Cincinnati on Friday night, and that's a big spot for the Bearcats. Cincinnati needs to get running back Michael Warren II going to have a chance, but they do have a nine-game win streak at home dating back to the 2017 home finale. Luke Fickell will have his team ready.

West Virginia got drilled 38-7 by Missouri in Week 2, and the same could happen when Texas visits Morgantown on Saturday. Just keep in mind that the average margin of victory in the teams' Big 12 meetings is 7.7 points per game. The Mountaineers are better at home and might hang around into the second half.

Over/under

Oklahoma State's Chuba Hubbard leads the FBS with 938 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, a commanding lead for the running back who should be generating more Heisman discussion.

Perhaps that's because rushing statistics are viewed with a different lens. Here is a look at the leading rusher every year this decade and their corresponding finish in the Heisman voting.

The average rushing total is 2,127 yards, and the average finish in the Heisman voting is fourth place. That doesn't account for Carey, who didn't even finish in the top 10 in 2012.

Hubbard, who should pad on those statistics at Texas Tech this week, is on pace for 2,251 yards and 24 touchdowns. That would likely get him a fourth- or fifth-place finish, too.

Perhaps Hubbard would get the nod if he broke former Oklahoma State running back Barry Sanders' single-season record of 2,628 yards in 1988. After all, that is SN's greatest individual single season in college football history.

WEEK 6 PROJECTIONS: Bowls | Playoff

Think about it …

The first College Football Playoff rankings are still more than a month away, with the first set coming on Nov. 5.

For those who don't believe they matter, we pointed out that 13 of the 20 Playoff teams the last five years were ranked in the top four in the opening rankings. In the last two years, that was six of the eight teams.

So yeah, you want to be in the top four at the start. How would that top four look right now? It would be a combination of Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State, Oklahoma, LSU and Auburn. The top seven teams in the country have looked the part, and the only head-to-head matchup among that group in October is Auburn at LSU on Oct. 26.

The golden rule of making the Playoff typically has been don't lose two games in a Power 5 conference. With this group, however, one loss could be enough to keep somebody out.

That's why the end of the Clemson-North Carolina game was such a big deal last week, and why the loser of Auburn-Florida could be in trouble in regard to Playoff aspirations.