College football Week 6 primer: Heisman Watch, upset picks, predictions and more

Bill Bender

College football Week 6 primer: Heisman Watch, upset picks, predictions and more image

This is the best weekend of the college football season so far.  

Week 6 offers four matchups between teams ranked in the AP Top 25, and they get better as the day progresses. No. 4 Florida travels to No. 21 Texas A&M and No. 19 Virginia Tech faces No. 8 North Carolina in the noon time slot.  

No. 14 Tennessee and No. 3 Georgia meet in a key SEC East showdown in the 3:30 p.m. slot, and prime time offers a top-10 matchup between No. 7 Miami and No. 2 Clemson.  

MORE: Week 6 picks against the spread

Those aren't the only good matchups. No. 21 Texas plays Oklahoma in the Red Rivalry and Ole Miss faces No. 2 Alabama. This should be fun.  

Every week, Sporting News surveys the landscape looking for Heisman contenders, coaches on the spot, upset alerts and other trends. With that in mind, get ready for Week 6.    

Heisman Watch    

The Miami-Clemson game is a showcase showdown between two of the top four Heisman candidates in Clemson's Trevor Lawrence and Miami's D'Eriq King.  

Lawrence (848 passing yards, 7 TDs, 0 INTs) and King (746 passing yards, 6 TDs, 0 INTs) will have a chance to make that first big statement in the Heisman Trophy race.  

The past two Heisman Trophy winners from the ACC — Florida State's Jameis Winston (2013) and Louisville's Lamar Jackson (2016) — took advantage of the stage against Clemson as part of their Heisman runs. Winston passed for 444 yards and three TDs in a 51-14 victory against Clemson on Oct. 19, 2013. Jackson had 295 passing yards, 162 rushing yards and three total TDs in a 42-36 shootout with Deshaun Watson on Oct. 1, 2016.  

Will King follow those two? Or will Lawrence take the next step toward being a Heisman finalist for the first time. That's an interesting subplot to Saturday's top-10 showdown.  

Coach on the spot    

How many times will you hear about Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher and that 10-year, $75 million contract this weekend? The Aggies are touchdown-underdogs at home against Florida in the latest chance to knock off a top-10 opponent.  

Alabama beat Texas A&M 52-24 last week, and that dropped Fisher to 1-8 against top-10 teams since taking over in 2018.  

DATE RESULT
Sept. 8, 2018 No. 2 Clemson 28, Texas A&M 26
Sept. 22, 2018 No. 1 Alabama 45, No. 22 Texas A&M 23
Nov. 24, 2018 Texas A&M 74, No. 8 LSU 72
Sept. 7, 2019 No. 1 Clemson 24, No. 12 Texas A&M 10
Sept. 21, 2019 No. 8 Auburn 28, No. 17 Texas A&M 20
Oct. 12, 2019 No. 1 Alabama 47, No. 24 Texas A&M 28
Nov. 23, 2019 No. 4 Georgia 19, No. 24 Texas A&M 13
Nov. 30, 2019 No. 1 LSU 50, Texas A&M 7
Oct. 3, 2020 No. 3 Alabama 52, No. 13 Texas A&M 24

That stat is misleading in that Texas A&M has never been the higher-ranked team — and it has been unranked in three of those games. Fisher's task isn't as simple as just winning those games. It's getting Texas A&M to the point where it can compete in those games. The average margin of loss is 17.8 points per game.  

If Fisher can't close that gap, then who can?  

Upset alert    

Tennessee is an early-season success story. The Vols are 2-0 under Jeremy Pruitt, and the program has re-established its footing with the nation's longest winning streak at eight games.  

The trick for Tennessee is beating its rivals. The Vols were a combined 3-27 against Georgia, Alabama and Florida in the 2010s. Those are the three best teams in the SEC.  

That chance for Pruitt comes against Georgia — which reminded everyone that it is still national championship-caliber in a 27-6 victory against Auburn in Week 5. Tennessee has a big offensive line, and the Vols have an opportunity to prove they are a contender.  

It won't be easy. The Bulldogs' defense allows just eight points per game, and Tennessee has struggled with third-down conversions (7-of-24). Jarrett Guarantano will need to play his best game to this point for the Vols to have a chance to spring the upset.  

Over/under    

Former Alabama offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin brings Ole Miss into a matchup against the Crimson Tide and Nick Saban.  

The over — which is set at 67 points — is a popular play knowing that both offenses can put up points. The Rebels have averaged 536 yards and 38.5 points per game. The Crimson Tide averages 479 yards and 45 ppg. It seems like a shootout where both teams should score in bunches. A look at the past five matchups follows that trend, even if it is one-sided.  

DATE MATCHUP TOTAL
Sept. 19, 2015 No. 15 Ole Miss 43, No. 2 Alabama 37 80
Sept. 17, 2016 No. 1 Alabama 48, No. 19 Ole Miss 43 91
Sept. 30, 2017 No. 1 Alabama 66, Ole Miss 3 69
Sept. 15, 2018 No. 1 Alabama 62, Ole Miss 7 69
Sept. 28, 2019 No. 2 Alabama 59, Ole Miss 31 90

One word of caution: The only time Kiffin and Saban squared off head to head was on Oct. 24, 2009. No. 1 Alabama beat Tennessee 12-10 on a legendary blocked field goal.  

Think about it …    

TCU coach Gary Patterson bristled at the notion that the Big 12 needs to revolve around Texas and Oklahoma.  

"It really bothers me that we’ve based everything that whether our league is good or bad or not on whether Oklahoma and Texas are good," Patterson said on the Big 12 teleconference Monday. "To be honest with you, we have a lot of good football teams and we always have had a lot of good football teams." 

Patterson is not wrong. The Big 12 has good football teams, and TCU has done its part to fight that perception in the College Football Playoff era. The Horned Frogs split a conference championship with Baylor in 2014 and had a strong playoff case.  

This year is different, however. That parity from top to bottom is working against the conference. Kansas State and Iowa State beat Oklahoma the past two weeks, but only after losing to Arkansas State and Louisiana, respectively, in the conference openers. TCU beat Texas, but only after losing to the Cyclones. Oklahoma State is the last remaining unbeaten team.  

In a landscape where two losses gets you knocked out of the Playoff race, TCU-Kansas State is an elimination game this weekend with more at stake than Texas-Oklahoma — unless you're the Longhorns.  

The Big 12 does have good teams. But great teams make the CFP. That is the difference.

Bill Bender

Bill Bender Photo

Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.