Week 14 college football primer: How conference championship chaos could unfold

Bill Bender

Week 14 college football primer: How conference championship chaos could unfold image

Conference championship weekend is here, the last chance for chaos before the College Football Playoff committee selects the four teams that will play in the Rose Bowl Game and Sugar Bowl on Dec. 1. 

How much chaos can the final weekend bring on the final Saturday of the college football regular season?

MORE: Watch college football live and on-demand with fuboTV

Here are five things that could increase the drama heading into the final stretch. 

TCU wins 

With apologies to the Pac-12 championship on Friday night, No. 10 USC probably can't wiggle into the College Football Playoff even if they beat No. 12 Stanford. We don't think No. 11 TCU can get in by beating No. 3 Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship game, but that could open the door for others. Imagine if the return of the Big 12 championship game somehow keeps the conference out of the College Football Playoff?

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The 12:30 p.m. ET kick makes this game the tone-setter for the other three conference championship games. 

Vols hire a coach 

Want to hijack the SEC championship game? Tennessee's coaching search continues, and if it's still going on Saturday then the Vols could make a splash by hiring that coach Saturday. Remember when Les Miles held a news conference before the 2007 SEC championship game to stay he was staying at LSU? It would be something like that.

MORE: UT coach search timeline  

J.T.'s knee

The Columbus Dispatch reports quarterback J.T. Barrett underwent arthroscopic knee surgery on Monday, but should play for No. 8 Ohio State against No. 4 Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game Saturday. Is this gamesmanship from Urban Meyer? Will Barrett be good to go, or will the Buckeyes turn to backup Dwayne Haskins, who pinch-hit for Barrett in a 31-20 victory against Michigan last week? That would closely resemble 2014, when Cardale Jones led Ohio State to a 59-0 victory against the Badgers as part of a national championship run. How will the committee view the Buckeyes with — or perhaps without — Barrett? 

Every top-four team loses 

What if the top four teams all lose? If USC, Miami, TCU, Georgia and Ohio State all win, then the top 11 ends up like this by record (* indicates conference champion). 

NO. TEAM
1 Clemson (11-2)
2 Auburn (10-3)
3 Oklahoma (11-2)
4 Wisconsin (12-1)
5 Alabama (11-1)
6 Georgia* (12-1)
7 Miami* (11-1)
8 Ohio State* (10-2)
9 Penn State (10-2)
10 USC* (11-2)
11 TCU* (11-2)

Have fun with that one, College Football Playoff committee. 

FiveThirtyEight.com's scenario generator says the playoff would be Georgia, Miami, Ohio State and Alabama — in that order. That's more than likely what we would get — and they can play Georgia-Alabama as a SEC championship game, Part II, given the Bulldogs didn't play the Crimson Tide this year.

Yet Clemson and USC would have better than a 30-percent chance, and didn't Oklahoma beat Ohio State head to head? Why wouldn't undefeated UCF have an argument at this point if they beat Memphis is the American Athletic Conference championship game? More chaos will generate some interesting decisions for the committee. 

Bama vs. OSU

If the favorites win, then this is the last piece of drama. 

Alabama fans are in that weird spot where if TCU loses, then they need Wisconsin to lose — but in ugly fashion. If Ohio State wins with a blowout, then that will sway the committee to take the conference champion Buckeyes?

Is Ohio State's resume enough to offset the losses to Oklahoma and Iowa? Or is the Crimson Tide the better team? The committee doesn't have to knock Alabama out of the playoff to put the Buckeyes in, but they better have a good case for letting Ohio State jump from No. 8 to No. 4. It's the debate to end all debates, and it just happens to feature two of the three most successful programs in college football today.

MORE: Alabama down, but not out of race

The winner of that debate could get the third program in Clemson. 

That's drama for another day, but we can't wait to get there.

Bill Bender

Bill Bender Photo

Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.