College football Week 11 primer: Heisman watch, upset picks, predictions and more

Bill Bender

College football Week 11 primer: Heisman watch, upset picks, predictions and more image

Week 11 of the college football season is here — and it should present some College Football Playoff shakeups, given the three top-10 matchups on the schedule.

No. 1 Georgia takes on No. 10 Auburn at 3:30 p.m. before prime-time showdowns between No. 3 Notre Dame and No. 7 Miami and No. 5 Oklahoma and No. 6 TCU.

We also have ranked matchups between No. 2 Alabama and No. 16 Mississippi State; No. 12 Michigan State and No. 13 Ohio State; No. 8 Wisconsin and No. 20 Iowa; and No. 15 Oklahoma State and No. 21 Iowa State.

WEEK 11 PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread  

So, yeah, we have a loaded schedule just three weeks before conference championship weekend. 

We're here to sort it out. Here's our Week 11 primer:

Heisman Watch

Baker Mayfield is the Heisman Trophy front runner this week, and he controls his destiny as far at that award goes. Is there anybody else who could make a late run? 

Keep an eye on Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor. He's around fifth or sixth in most polls now. The freshman ranks third in the FBS with 1,368 rushing yards, behind only San Diego State's Rashaad Penny (1,602) and Stanford's Bryce Love (1,456). The difference here is Taylor has a chance to carry the Badgers to the College Football Playoff. He also could join the school's 2,000-yard club, which includes Heisman Trophy winner Ron Dayne and 2014 runner-up Melvin Gordon.

MORE: Why is unbeaten Wisconsin questioned?

Here's a look at how Taylor has fared compared to some other Wisconsin legends in their freshman season. 

PLAYER TOTAL
Ron Dayne (1996) 2,109
Anthony Davis (2001) 1,466
P.J. Hill (2006) 1,569
Montee Ball (2009) 391
James White (2010) 1,052
Melvin Gordon (2011) 98
Jonathan Taylor (2017) 1,368

With a four-game stretch that includes Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota and potentially a date in the Big Ten championship game, Taylor is the guy to keep an eye on if his numbers continue to swell. 

Coach on the Spot  

Urban Meyer. Ohio State isn't out of the College Football Playoff mix, but this is the first time in his six-year tenure the Buckeyes have lost two regular-season games.

In fact, Meyer had lost just three regular-season games at Ohio State from 2012-16. That's amazing, but the response against the Spartans will set the tone for the rest of this season after the Buckeyes' shocking 55-24 loss at Iowa last week. 

The Buckeyes have never lost consecutive regular-season games under Meyer, and they've beaten opponents following such losses by an average of 32.3 points per game. In 2014, the Buckeyes followed a loss to Virginia Tech with a 66-0 victory against Kent State. In 2015, the Buckeyes blew out Michigan 42-13 after a shocking loss to Michigan State. Last season, Ohio State followed the loss to Penn State with a 24-21 victory against Northwestern, and the team followed this year's loss to Oklahoma with a 38-7 win against Army. 

It's safe to say this week's game against Michigan State, which should decide who represents the Big Ten East in Indianapolis, is Meyer's biggest response game yet.

Upset alert  

Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan State are rooting for as much chaos as possible heading into this week of top-10 showdowns. This is the second round to see which of the top six team blinks. Last week, it was the Buckeyes. Who will it be this week? 

No. 3 Notre Dame at No. 7 Miami. This is an elimination game. The loser likely falls behind the Big Ten champion, unless we're talking about the Irish and Spartans. Remember, Notre Dame has the head-to-head there. 

No. 6 TCU at No. 5 Oklahoma. This series has a history of close games, but it's tough to go against the Sooners at home. The loser is out.

No. 2 Georgia at No. 10 Auburn. Georgia hasn't used its one-loss mulligan yet, and the Tigers are the two-loss team with the best shot to get back in.

What do you think? If you're the Big Ten teams, then you are rooting for Auburn, TCU and Miami.

Over/under

What's the over/under on how many times “Catholics vs. Convicts” will be mentioned during the Notre Dame-Miami game? The '80s nostalgia is there, but coaches Brian Kelly and Mark Richt have brought the rivalry into the modern day. 

Sporting News has you covered. Angry Bender ranted about Notre Dame's schedule this week. We ranked the 16 greatest matchups and lamented why we have to wait until 2024 to see the next matchup unless it's in the College Football Playoff (or the Irish join a conference). 

MORE: Remembering "Catholics vs. Convicts"

We will enjoy the replays. We just wish we could enjoy it more often.

Think about it … 

This tweet is amazing, and not just because of Spiderman: 

Let's run down some notable coaches and the last time they lost by 17 points: 

COACH DATE TEAM SCORE MARGIN
Nick Saban (LSU) Oct. 2, 2004 Georgia 45-16 29
Dabo Swinney Nov. 15, 2014 Georgia Tech 28-6 22
Kirby Smart Sept. 24, 2016 Ole Miss 45-14 31
Mark Richt Oct. 20, 2016 Virginia Tech 37-16 21
Brian Kelly Nov. 26, 2016 USC 45-27 18
Gary Patterson Dec. 3, 2016 Kansas State 30-6 24
Mike Gundy Dec. 3, 2016 Oklahoma 38-20 18
Chris Petersen Dec. 31, 2016 Alabama 24-7 17
Mark Dantonio Sept. 23, 2017 Notre Dame 38-18 20
Jim Harbaugh Oct. 21, 2017 Penn State 42-13 29
Jimbo Fisher Oct. 27, 2017 Boston College 35-3 32
Urban Meyer Nov. 4, 2017 Iowa 55-24 31

That's why Alabama-Clemson III is still very-much alive in our minds. 

Bill Bender

Bill Bender Photo

Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.