College football Week 11 primer: Heisman Watch, upset picks, predictions and more

Bill Bender

College football Week 11 primer: Heisman Watch, upset picks, predictions and more image

We are in the second week of November, and the College Football Playoff race is heating up.

This week features three games between teams ranked in the AP Top 25: No. 8 Ohio State at No. 24 Michigan State at noon, No. 18 Mississippi State at No. 1 Alabama at 3:30 p.m. and No. 2 Clemson at No. 17 Boston College at 8 p.m. That's a game that determines who represents the ACC Atlantic in the conference championship game.

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We're just three weeks away from the College Football Playoff pairings and, with that in mind, here's a look at this week's Heisman watch, coach on the spot, upset alert and something to think about heading into Week 11.

Heisman watch

Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa has a huge lead for this year's Heisman Trophy, but a pair of Big 12 quarterbacks can make a November run. Oklahoma's Kyler Murray (3,263 total yards, 38 combined touchdowns) and West Virginia's Will Grier (2,618 passing yards, 28 touchdowns) each rank in among the top five quarterbacks in touchdown passes.

A Big 12 quarterback has finished in the top five in six of the last seven seasons, a stretch book-ended by winners Baker Mayfield (2017) and Robert Griffin III (2011).

Year Player School Finish
2017 Baker Mayfield Oklahoma 1st
2016 Baker Mayfield Oklahoma 3rd
2015 Baker Mayfield Oklahoma 4th
2014 Trevone Boykin TCU 4th
2013 Bryce Petty Baylor 7th
2012 Collin Klein Kansas State 3rd
2011 Robert Griffin III Baylor 1st

Big 12 quarterbacks produce numbers — that hasn't changed. Now, either Murray or Grier needs to win out — and they'll go head-to-head on Nov. 24 and perhaps again in the Big 12 championship game on Dec. 1.

Murray has the bigger spotlight this week in Bedlam against Oklahoma State. For what it's worth, Mayfield, a three-time finalist, never lost that game. Grier, coming off last week's dramatic win against Texas, leads the Mountaineers heading into a matchup against TCU.

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Coach on the spot

Ohio State coach Urban Meyer was asked to assess the Buckeyes' defense on the Big Ten teleconference on Tuesday.

"Somebody asked if we're confident, I'll know more after this week, but I thought we took a good step last week," Meyer said. "Even though we gave up some yards, we are getting better."

The Buckeyes face what could be a season-tilting game against No. 24 Michigan State in East Lansing on Saturday. That has been the case under Meyer in the College Football Playoff era.

A 49-37 win against No. 7 Michigan State in 2014 launched a national championship campaign, and a 17-14 loss to No. 6 Michigan State the following year derailed one. Ohio State used a 17-16 win against the Spartans in 2016 to get to the College Football Playoff, and a 48-3 victory last season led to a Big Ten championship.

It's a big game. Win, and the Buckeyes inch closer to a winner-takes-the-Big Ten East showdown against No. 4 Michigan. Lose, and the Wolverines likely are headed to Indianapolis no matter what happens in Columbus — and the question about Meyer's future will intensify.

We'll find out how confident Ohio State is.

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Upset alert

No. 17 Boston College has an opportunity to take control of the ACC Atlantic with a home game against Clemson on Saturday. The Eagles are at home in primetime, and the stage is theirs.

Or does the stage belong to the Tigers? Clemson averaged 60 points per game in its last four wins. Of course, critics might say they haven't played a ranked ACC team on the road. The truth is that doesn't happen often. Here is a look at the Tigers' road games against ranked ACC opponents since 2015.

Year Opponent Result
Oct. 29, 2016 No. 12 Florida State W 37-34
Sept. 16, 2017 No. 14 Louisville W 47-21
Sept. 30, 2017 No. 17 Virginia Tech W 31-17
Nov. 4, 2017 No. 20 N.C. State W 38-31

Most of Clemson's veteran playmakers took part in all those games, and that means they should be focused for Boston College. We won't put the Tigers on upset alert here.

As for the ones we did in this week's picks ?

Wisconsin at No. 21 Penn State (-8). The Badgers have more to play for in the Big Ten West.

No. 12 Kentucky (-4) at Tennessee. The Vols get Jeremy Pruitt's first home SEC victory.

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Think about it

There are so many metrics and statistics now when it comes to college football teams that, sometimes, it's best to keep it simple.

Who scores the most points? Who gives up the fewest points?

With that in mind, Sporting News looked up the 10 teams in the College Football Playoff hunt with one loss or fewer and averaged out their totals in scoring offense and scoring defense.

Total Team Offense Rank Defense Rank Average
1 Alabama 51.3 1 14.1 3 2
2 Clemson 47.8 3 13.3 1 2
3 UCF 45.4 4 20.9 6 5
4 Michigan 36.7 9 13.6 2 5.5
5 Oklahoma 49.1 2 27.9 10 6
5 Georgia 38.1 8 16.4 4 6
7 West Virginia 40.1 6 22.3 7 6.5
8 Ohio State 42.2 5 23.8 8.5 6.75
9 Notre Dame 33.7 10 19.3 5 7.5
10 Washington State 38.3 7 23.8 8.5 7.75

Yes, that includes UCF. The Knights have the third-best average among the schools, between Clemson and Michigan. When it comes down to it, the Knights have won 21 straight games. Regardless of level, you have to be pretty good on both sides to do that.

UCF might not make it to the College Football Playoff, but it will give one of the other teams on this list a fit in a New Year's Day Six bowl when it comes to that.

Don't act surprised when it happens.

Bill Bender

Bill Bender Photo

Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.