College football Week 10 primer: Heisman watch, upset picks, predictions and more

Bill Bender

College football Week 10 primer: Heisman watch, upset picks, predictions and more image

Week 10 of the college football season is here — and that means we're in the final month of the regular season. 

This last month starts off with a bang on Saturday, as there are seven matchups involving teams ranked in the College Football Playoff rankings.

No. 7 Penn State travels to No. 24 Michigan State, No. 4 Clemson faces No. 20 N.C. State and No. 21 Stanford is on the road at No. 25 Washington State. Then there's Bedlam between No. 5 Oklahoma and No. 11 Oklahoma State, which sets up a prime-time slate that features No. 19 LSU at No. 2 Alabama and No. 13 Virginia Tech at No. 10 Miami. No. 22 Arizona at No. 17 USC rounds out a jam-packed Saturday. 

PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread

Those are the highlights on the schedule. How will the next set of rankings shake out? Here's our Week 10 primer: 

Heisman Watch

The winner of Bedlam will likely land a Heisman Trophy finalist. That's what's at stake between Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma State quarterback Mason Rudolph. 

Here's the tale of the tape: 

PLAYER COMP % YARDS YDS/ATT TD INT RAT
Mason Rudolph 65.6 2,866 10.4 22 5 175.5
Baker Mayfield 72.5 2,628 11.1 23 3 195.6

Mayfield has led the Sooners to victories in Bedlam the last two years. He finished those games with a combined 30-of-44 passing for 468 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions. He has a chance to do what Ohio State's J.T. Barrett did last week: leave a mark on the Heisman Trophy conversation. Remember, Mayfield beat Barrett head to head earlier this season.

Rudolph, meanwhile, played a role in the Cowboys' last victory against the Sooners in 2014. He didn't play much in 2015, and completed 11 of 25 passes for 186 yards in last year's loss. This is a statement game for both quarterbacks, but more pressure is on Rudolph to deliver at home.

BEDLAM LEGACY: Mayfield | Rudolph

Coach on the spot  

Ed Orgeron. LSU is a three-touchdown underdog against Alabama in a game that was generally considered the game of the year from about 2008-16, considering the rivalry between Nick Saban and Les Miles.

Alabama has wrested control of the series since winning the 2012 BCS championship game 21-0. That started a run of six straight victories by an average of 12.8 points per game. Four of those wins were decided by double-digit margins of victory.

Will the Tigers put their foot down and make this one a game? Or will they simply be another notch on Alabama's SEC blowout tour, one in which they've covered three of four ridiculous spreads?

If that happens, then any momentum created under Orgeron in his first full season won't feel real, at least not until the next meeting. 

MORE: Bama No. 2? Tide knows that doesn't matter

Upset alert  

The first set of College Football Playoff rankings came out on Tuesday, and most of the arguments revolve around the top six teams. Those teams are the best bets to win out, but we all know the danger of penciling teams in. We already mentioned Oklahoma-Oklahoma State and Alabama-LSU. Those aren't trap games. 

What about the other four teams? Which one will be tricky?

No. 6 Ohio State at Iowa. It's almost too easy to call, given the Buckeyes are coming off an emotional victory. But we'd be more inclined to believe it if it was at night. 

No. 4 Clemson at N.C. State. This will be the closest game of the four. The Wolfpack can seize control of the ACC Atlantic. Remember, both of their losses were in nonconference play.

Wake Forest at No. 3 Notre Dame. The Demon Deacons lead the nation with 9.3 tackles for loss per game, but can they disrupt that Irish running game on the road?

South Carolina at No. 2 Georgia. This was a huge SEC game not too long ago, and it's a chance for the Gamecocks to keep their SEC East hopes alive. This one will be closer than expected.

MORE: Top 25 games remaining in regular season

Over/under

Virginia Tech is a three-point favorite against Miami in the prime-time ACC Game of the Week, a battle that should determine the ACC Coastal Division winner.

Here is where the Hurricanes, who opened at No. 10 in the first College Football Playoff rankings, can earn some respect: They haven't covered as favorites the last three weeks, and this is their first time as an underdog this season.

The Hokies have covered as favorites the last three weeks. We expect this to come down to the wire, and the winner will get its chance in the ACC championship game in Charlotte.

Think about it … 

Imagine saying this three years — or even three months — ago.  …

It's November. Mark Richt has Miami undefeated and in the playoff hunt. Jimbo Fisher and Florida State are struggling to make a bowl game. Randy Shannon is the Gators' head coach.

Only in Florida, right? 

It's a sign of the times when FSU-Florida or Clemson-FSU didn't even make Sporting News' top 25 games of November. Miami, FSU and Florida are 12-9 this season, and that's taking into account the Hurricanes' 7-0 record.

Did any Florida games make the list? UCF and South Florida and FIU vs. FAU.

That's a testament to the jobs Scott Frost, Charlie Strong, Butch Davis and Lane Kiffin have done — the latter three in their first season. They've combined for a record of 24-6. Imagine saying that three months ago.

Will one of those four be the head coach at a certain in-state SEC program next season? We have no idea what we'll be typing three months from now.

Like we said, only in Florida.

Bill Bender

Bill Bender Photo

Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.