College football Week 1 picks against the spread for every top-25 matchup

Bill Bender

College football Week 1 picks against the spread for every top-25 matchup image

The 2019 college football season opens Saturday with an in-state rivalry game between No. 8 Florida and Miami.

That's one of the better matchups that run through Week 1 the following weekend. In fact, the only matchup between ranked teams is between No. 11 Oregon and No. 16 Auburn. There are a lot of big spreads to sort out, and Sporting News' Bill Bender will pick every top-25 game against the spread this season.

MORE: Straight-up picks for top Week 1 games

How did we do during the regular season in 2018? Bender finished 213-54 (.798) straight up and 143-108 (.569) against the spread in the regular season last year.

With that in mind, here is a look at the dates, times, TV and odds (provided courtesy of VegasInsider.com as of Aug. 20) for every top-25 matchup in Weeks 0 and 1.

(all times Eastern) 

Saturday, Aug. 31

Florida Atlantic at No. 5 Ohio State (-27)

Noon, FOX

Justin Fields and Ryan Day impress in their debuts, and the Buckeyes show a little more punch on defense around future first-round pick Chase Young. The only question is what Lane Kiffin will say afterward.

Ohio State wins 49-17 and COVERS the spread.

South Alabama at No. 24 Nebraska (-36)

Noon, ESPN

Expectations are through the roof heading into Scott Frost's second season, and the Huskers should win their season-opener this time. The spread still looks a little high, given the questions on the Huskers' defense. The Jaguars sneak in a back-door cover late.

Nebraska wins 48-13 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.

Northern Iowa at No. 21 Iowa State (-18.5)

Noon, FS1

Brock Purdy gets the Cyclones off on the right foot, and Matt Campbell won't leave anything to the imagination with an early bye week before the in-state rivalry game with Iowa.

Iowa State wins 33-17 and FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

Eastern Washington at No. 13 Washington (-21)

3 p.m., Pac-12 Network

The Huskies haven't named a starting quarterback yet, but Georgia transfer Jacob Eason will get a chance to play. Washington will grind out a methodical victory, and it will be great to see tackle Trey Adams back in action.

Washington wins 38-13 and COVERS the spread.

No. 2 Alabama (-34.5) vs. Duke

3:30 p.m., ABC

The Crimson Tide are 9-0 in neutral-site openers and have won those games by an average of 24 points per game. Alabama also hasn't played since losing 44-16 to Clemson in the national championship. Expect Tua Tagovailoa to put on a show. The Crimson Tide were 1-3 ATS when favored by 30 or more points last season, so it's risky.

Alabama wins 48-10 and COVERS the spread.

Idaho at No. 15 Penn State (-40) 

3:30 p.m., Big Ten Network

The Nittany Lions won't have a nailbiter in this opener. Sean Clifford settles in at quarterback, and KJ Hamler scores at least one highlight-reel touchdown. The pass-rush gives hope for Penn State fans that this defense could be on to something more.

Penn State wins 56-13 and COVERS the spread. 

MORE: Ranking top 25 nonconference games of 2019

Northwestern at No. 25 Stanford (-6.5)

4 p.m., FOX

Hunter Johnson or TJ Green will be up against Stanford on the road, and the Cardinal will be looking for revenge from the last meeting in 2015. Northwestern, however, pulls a mild upset with a late Paddy Fisher interception.

Northwestern wins 26-24 in an UPSET.

No. 22 Syracuse (-17.5) at Liberty

6 p.m., ESPN+

Hugh Freeze is back, and he has an exciting quarterback in Stephen Calvert. The Flames, however, can't keep up with Syracuse's offense around new quarterback Tommy DeVito. Liberty allowed 41 or more points in seven games last season.

Syracuse wins 56-28 and COVERS the spread.

No. 3 Georgia (-20.5) at Vanderbilt

7:30 p.m., SEC Network

Georgia opens with an SEC road game against Vanderbilt, which boasts talented skill-position players in running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn, receiver Kalija Lipscomb and tight end Jared Pinkney. The Bulldogs have built two-score leads by halftime and coasted the last two years. It might be a little tighter this time as Jake Fromm breaks in some new receivers.

Georgia wins 40-20 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.

Georgia Southern at No. 6 LSU (-28)

7:30 p.m., ESPNU

The Eagles are coming off a 10-win season, and they were 3-1 against the spread as underdogs last season. Shai Werts can eat up some clock with a few long drives, but LSU will speed that up in the second half. This will be right on the line.

LSU wins 37-10 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.

Middle Tennessee State at No. 7 Michigan (-33.5)

7:30 p.m., BTN

The Wolverines are heavy favorites with the debut of a new-look offense with offensive coordinator Josh Gattis, but this is about efficiency for Shea Patterson. Michigan's defense settles in and the secondary comes up with a pick-six.

Michigan wins 41-10 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.

Miami (Ohio) at No. 20 Iowa (-21.5)

7:30 p.m., FS1

Iowa returns Nate Stanley and a solid defensive line led by A.J. Epenesa. The RedHawks were 5-2 against the spread as an underdog last season, however, and a back-door cover could happen here. We'll go with it.

Iowa wins 34-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.

MORE: Best, worst case for every top-25 team

No. 11 Oregon vs. No. 16 Auburn (-3)

7:30 p.m., ABC

It's the only game between ranked teams, and as a result it will cause the biggest overreaction in Week 1. Bo Nix will start, but Joey Gatewood could play. It's Auburn's defensive line that makes the biggest impact in a back-and-forth thriller. Gus Malzahn hot-seat talk cools, at least for one week.

Auburn wins 28-23 and COVERS the spread.

Louisiana Tech at No. 10 Texas (-20.5)

8 p.m., Longhorn Network

Texas will look to win its first opener under Tom Herman, and it's a chance for Sam Ehlinger to make a September statement. It's a tight margin on the spread, but the Longhorns pile on in the fourth quarter.

Texas wins 42-14 and COVERS the spread.

New Mexico State at No. 23 Washington State (-32.5)

10 p.m., Pac-12 Network

Washington State breaks in a new starter in Gage Gubrud, and those who stay up late enough can watch Mike Leach start the Cougars off on the right foot. The spread is still a touch too high.

Washington State wins 49-20 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.

Sunday, Sept. 1

Houston at No. 4 Oklahoma (-24.5)

7:30 p.m., ESPN

It's not just Jalen Hurts' debut. The Cougars have a new coach in Dana Holgorsen, and D'Eriq King returns as one of the nation's most exciting offensive playmakers. This could be the highest-scoring game among top 25 matchups.

Oklahoma wins 48-31 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.

Monday, Sept. 2

No. 9 Notre Dame (-20.5) at Louisville

8 p.m., ESPN

The Cards will come out fired up in Scott Satterfield's debut, but the Irish present too many challenges up front on both sides of the ball. Look for Ian Book to lead two second-quarter touchdown drives before the Irish cruise in the second half.

Notre Dame wins 38-16 and COVERS the spread.

Final Scores

No. 8 Florida (-7.5) vs. Miami

7 p.m., ESPN 

This rivalry game starts the 150th season off right, and Miami hangs around behind first-time starter Jarren Williams. Feleipe Franks, who had 12 total touchdowns and no interceptions in Florida's last four games last season, closes the door in the fourth quarter.

Florida wins 27-20 and FAILS TO COVER the spread. (Florida 24-20)

Florida A&M at No. 17 UCF (-45.5)

7:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network

Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush should make his first start for the Knights, who will face a Florida A&M team that went 6-5 in Willie Simmons' first season. UCF maintains its regular-season unbeaten streak going with ease. (UCF wins 62-0)

UCF wins 49-7 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.

Georgia Tech at No. 1 Clemson (-37)

8 p.m., ACC Network

Geoff Collins' debut at Georgia Tech won't be easy, and it's our first look at Trevor Lawrence since his high-flying performance in the College Football Playoff last season. Clemson was 1-2 against the spread when favored by more than 30 points in 2018.

Clemson wins 44-14 but FAILS TO COVER the spread. (Clemson wins 52-14)

Texas State at No. 12 Texas A&M (-33.5)

8:30 p.m., SEC Network

First-year coach Jake Spavital leads the Bobcats into a tough opener at Kyle Field, and the Aggies are hoping to pick up where they left off after averaging more than 50 points over their last four games of 2018. Kellen Mond opens with a big first half.

Texas A&M wins 51-14 and COVERS the spread. (Texas A&M wins 41-7) 

No. 14 Utah (-6) at BYU

10:15 p.m., ESPN 

Another Week 1 rivalry game, and it should be a good one. The Utes have won the last eight meetings, but all of the last six have been decided by little more than five points per game. BYU makes it interesting at home, and perhaps we get overtime.

Utah wins 27-20 and COVERS the spread. (Utah wins 30-12) 

Tulsa at No. 18 Michigan State (-22.5)

7 p.m., Fox Sports 1 

The Spartans have had some lackadaisical openers in recent seasons against Furman and Utah State, but with the pressure on the new offense, expect quarterback Brian Lewerke to be more aggressive early. A veteran defense also makes a statement against Baylor transfer Zach Smith.

Michigan State wins 38-13 and COVERS the spread. (Michigan State wins 28-7

No. 19 Wisconsin (-13.5) at South Florida

7 p.m., ESPN

The Badgers will play Jack Coan and Graham Mertz, and Jonathan Taylor will get off to a good start against the Bulls. South Florida is a solid first opponent, but the Badgers have won their last two openers against Group of 5 schools by an average of 40 points per game.

Wisconsin wins 38-21 and COVERS the spread. (Wisconsin wins 49-0)

Bill Bender

Bill Bender Photo

Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.