It all comes down to this. The final week of the Underdog Challenge is here, and only 6.5 points separate the top four in our standings heading into rivalry week. That means this season's top dog is up for grabs, a fitting end to a year in which none of our experts ever truly separated themselves from the pack.
Will Ohio State (+3.5) end its mini two-game skid against Michigan? Can Kentucky (+7.5) hand Louisville its second loss of the Jeff Brohm era? Our experts think upsets are on the horizon in both of those rivalry matchups.
As a reminder of how the Underdog Challenge works, our experts pick three underdogs to win outright (not just cover the spread). They then earn points equal to the number of points those teams got on the spread if their upsets come to fruition.
| Place | Name | Record | Points |
| 1. | Nick Musial | 9-24 | 49.5 |
| 2. | Mike DeCourcy | 6-27 | 48.5 |
| 3. | Bill Bender | 12-21 | 45 |
| 4. | Edward Sutelan | 10-23 | 43 |
| 5. | Bill Trocchi | 4-29 | 16 |
MORE: Week 13 against the spread picks
Onto the upsets.
Mike DeCourcy, Senior writer
South Carolina (+7.5) over Clemson
Let me tell you how frustrating this exercise has been, even for the person who won the Underdog Challenge a year ago and led this year’s for more than a month. Over the past five weeks, I’ve lost picks when UCF’s kicker missed an extra point, when Duke allowed a touchdown drive that tied it in the final 50 seconds and when Colorado allowed 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to lose by 3. If you bet $100 on each of my underdogs over the past five weeks to cover the spread, you’d be up $500. But that’s not the game! It’s to pick underdog winners, and I’m only 3-12 straight up as opposed to 10-5 on covers. It’s maddening. And when I complain about another OT loser, my wife says, “What do you get for winning that?” Oh, yeah: nothing. Except I get to brag about beating Bender. And that is something.
NC State (+2.5) over North Carolina
The 'Pack are on a roll of four consecutive wins that included victories over Clemson and Miami, and a stadium full of red down off I-40 seems like the ideal recipe to continue that success. State just got itself inside the College Football Playoff rankings. It’s only No. 22, but it’s something. Not going to want to blow that now.
Ohio State (+3.5) over Michigan
It’s not about distractions or rules violations or any of that. It’s about which team appears to be better positioned to win the biggest college football game of this season. And, by a very slim margin, that appears to be the Buckeyes. Their running game has found its voice, and the defense should be able to pressure UM quarterback J.J. McCarthy into a challenging afternoon. The one aspect of this that is yet proven: Buckeyes quarterback Kyle McCord. How will he perform under this much pressure? We won’t know until sometime Saturday afternoon.
BENDER: The five best Ohio State-Michigan games of all-time
Bill Trocchi, Senior editor
Oregon State (+13.5) over Oregon
It all comes crashing down on the Ducks – no Pac-12 title game, no Heisman Trophy for Bo Nix, no College Football Playoff. And it is all the sweeter on the Beavers side as they hang an ‘L’ on their archrivals in their final Pac-12 game. These two teams played Washington essentially even. Why this is a two-touchdown spread, I'm not sure.
MORE CFB: Week 13 Bowl Projections
Ohio State (+3.5) over Michigan
Marvin Harrison Jr. proved to be the difference in the Penn State game, and he could be the difference against Michigan. J.J. McCarthy is not playing as well as he was playing in the middle of the year, and Michigan will have an interim coach that will be feeling the pressure on every decision (heads or tails?!?!?). Ryan Day is always tight for this game, and it rubs off on his team, but the fatigue of battling through all the sign-stealing shenanigans finally catches up to Michigan.
Baylor (+10.5) over West Virginia
There is no real rational reason to pick the Bears here, coming in on a four-game losing streak with no bowl on the horizon. West Virginia, of course, is having a terrific season after I predicted it would fire coach Neal Brown before October. So I may as well just lean in to being wrong about West Virginia all the way and put a capper on a sorry Underdog Challenge season.
Bill Bender, Lead college football writer
Ohio State (+3.5) over Michigan
This line has dropped a bit in Ohio State’s favor, and part of that might be the absence of Jim Harbaugh. It also could be the Buckeyes’ nasty defense — which hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in a game — and a balanced offense made better by TreVeyon Henderson. The Buckeyes win a close one.
Minnesota (+3) over Wisconsin
The Gophers have won the last two meetings, and this is a toss-up game between two Big Ten West teams that have been starved for offense. Wisconsin broke a three-game losing streak last week, but the Gophers are playing for a bowl appearance. It's a field-goal game either way.
South Carolina (+7.5) over Clemson
South Carolina broke the losing streak to Clemson last year, and they have built a three-game losing streak while trying to make a bowl game. Spencer Rattler has been hot down the stretch. Will he be hot enough to knock off Clemson for a second straight year? We think so.
Edward Sutelan, Digital content producer
Ohio State (+3.5) over Michigan
Michigan has dominated Ohio State in back-to-back years. The game is in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines have looked the part of a title contender all year. So why Ohio State? Well, let's look at how Michigan won last year. TreVeyon Henderson was out, and the Wolverines scored five times on plays over more than 40 yards. This Ohio State defense is much better at limiting explosives, and Henderson will be in, making this a completely different offense. Michigan has just looked different without Jim Harbaugh, and could miss him on game day. Also, the last two times Ohio State was a regular-season underdog? The Buckeyes have won by an average of 17.5 points, including a 62-39 rout of Michigan in 2018.
Florida (+6.5) over Florida State
The Seminoles pulled away late against FCS opponent North Alabama, but there was a point where the game looked suspiciously close. Before that, Florida State had a narrow win at home against Miami. Now, they'll head to Gainesville to face a motivated Florida team fighting for bowl eligibility in another rivalry game, this time without Jordan Travis. The questions since Travis went out have been whether an undefeated FSU with a backup quarterback still make it to the CFP. Florida answers those questions by putting an end to the undefeated run for the Seminoles.
Texas A&M (+11.5) over LSU
I need at least one big pick this week to try and really make up some ground. It's been a disappointing year for both Texas A&M and LSU, with the former firing their head coach and the latter watching a Heisman-caliber season with Jayden Daniels going by the wayside in a season with CFP expectations. The Aggies have lost by one score in their three SEC defeats, and still have a decent defense. LSU does not have a decent defense, and it feels like any offense should have little issues scoring, and if Texas A&M can get just one or two turnovers, it could be enough to stun the Tigers in the season finale.
Nick Musial, Content producer
Ohio State (+3.5) over Michigan
Ohio State's ability to limit explosive plays that ultimately doomed them in '22 should lead to a much more competitive rendition of "The Game" this year. The Wolverines' offense hasn't really been in sync the past two weeks, and as long as Jim Knowles' defense keeps Blake Corum in check, the Buckeyes could emerge victorious in the de facto Big Ten East Championship game.
Kentucky (+7.5) over Louisville
While it'll take a miracle for the Cardinal to reach the CFP, this year's Louisville bunch feels eerily similar to the '22-23 TCU. Louisville has been the beneficiary of some luck in one-score games this season, but we think their luck comes to an end on Senior Day. Devin Leary and the Wildcats' offense hit several explosive plays while their defense hold
Georgia Southern (+8.5) over Appalachian State
We're hoping the Mountaineers have a down week after an emotional overtime win in Harrisonburg last week. Georgia Southern isn't in particularly great form, having lost its past three games, but Davis Brin and the offense should be able to generate ample scoring drives against an exploitable App State defense.
