Washington State vs. No. 11 Oregon
Opener: Oregon -14
The two best quarterbacks in the Pac-12, and two that rank in the top 10 in many of the main statistical measures, will be going head-to-head in this exciting matchup in Eugene, Ore. Ducks quarterback Justin Herbert is having a fabulous season, ranking ninth nationally with 158 pass completions, 17th with a 68 completion percentage, 19th with 1,992 passing yards, 14th with 9.7 adjusted yards per pass attempt, and sixth with 21 touchdown passes.
Despite his great season, Herbert still trails the Cougars’ quarterback Anthony Gordon by miles in the major flash stats. Gordon has completed a national-best 246 passes, 58 more than second-best Cole McDonald of Hawaii. Despite his high volume of throws, he has completed 71 percent of his passes, ranking seventh nationally.
MORE: Get the latest NCAA odds & betting advice at Sportsbook Review
Gordon leads the nation with 2,981 passing yards, 497 more yards than the second-best quarterback in that category, Heisman Trophy candidate Joe Burrow. Gordon is tied for first nationally with 21 passing touchdowns
The Ducks rank seventh nationally in scoring defense, allowing 13.3 points per game and ranking by allowing a 0.188 points-per-play-allowed ratio. This defense has faced no other team even remotely close to the speed, quickness, and overall athleticism that the Cougars bring to this game.
Oregon is coming off a dramatic come-from-behind win and are going to get caught in a letdown situation in this matchup. The Sportsbook Review’s odds show Oregon to be favored by 14 points with a posted total of 64 points. This implies an Oregon victory with a final 39-25 tally.
What Does the Machine Have for Us?
Ducks coach Cristobal is just 3-13 against the spread in home games after his defense forced no more than one turnover in their previous game. Cougars coach Mike Leach is 8-1 against the spread in road games when facing elite passing teams that are averaging 275 or more passing yards per game. Leach has his Air Raid offensive attack, but he also knows how to coach in these matchups too.
The Cougars are 7-1 against the spread in games that have had a posted total between 63.5 and 70 over the last three seasons.
The summary from the machine learning tools indicates the Cougars will score a minimum of 28 points. In past road games in which the Cougars scored 28 or more points has earned an outstanding 62-17-3 against the spread record good for 79 percent winning bets, including 12-3 against the spread in games where the total ranged between 58 and 70 points since 2000.
The best bet is on the Cougars as 14-point road underdogs.
Eastern Michigan vs. Toledo
Opener: Toledo -3.5, over/under 57
We’re going to step out the Power 5 Conferences to exploit a fantastic college football pick in the MAC between Eastern Michigan and Toledo.
The betting as of late Tuesday afternoon is showing a wave of “OVER” bets being made by the public bettors. 83 percent of the bets being made on the total are betting “OVER” and is a sure sign of irrational betting behavior that I believe will continue for the remainder of the week. This total will climb to 59.5 points by Friday based on the initial action.
There is an abrupt end to these swings in consensus, and this total is one of them. So, with 83 percent of the bets being on the “OVER” supports a play on the “UNDER”. But there’s more.
Here is a supporting situational betting system that has earned a solid 41-16 “UNDER’’ record, good for 72 percent winning college football picks since 2013. It is simply to play “UNDER’’ in a conference matchup with two teams that have winning percentages between 50 and 60 percent on the season.
So, the best bet is the UNDER that is currently priced at 58.5 points.