Building a College Football Super League model, with these 40 schools making cut

Bill Bender

Building a College Football Super League model, with these 40 schools making cut image

The House vs. NCAA settlement re-opens the possibility for an eventuality in big-time college football – one that has been a talking point since before the College Football Playoff era started. 

When will the College Football Super League start? On May 20, Sports Business Journal reported that the Big Ten had more than $850 million in revenue in 2023, which was ahead of the SEC at $820 million. Those two conferences have created gaps within the now-Power 4 and rest of college football, and revenue sharing with athletes is one of the building blocks for the Super League structure.

"It's just going to take time," Athletes.org founder and chairman Jim Cavale told Sporting News. "Essentially, a college football Super League is creating one media deal that has a trickle-down effect where top teams get the upside and make more money. Middle tier teams make a certain amount – a guaranteed amount they can operate off, and smaller teams can still survive and there is more money because it's one media deal."

TV and total revenue, of course, will be the forces behind that Super League. Which schools can afford to play at that level? For certain programs in the power conferences, that will be easy. Others, however, might fall in a different category.

"There may be more haves and have-nots that come out of this settlement, which will position them for where they live in a future Super League should it happen," Cavale said.

That revenue, however, should not be everything. Winning has to count for something. So does academics. This is college football, right? Whenever I'm asked, "What would you do if you were college football commissioner?" my initial response is, "Create this Super League using five categories."

Let's try one that has all of those components in a 40-team league. This is a better model than the 15-team hypothetical version we created in 2021. Here are the five categories behind it – and the teams we would build that league around. 

BENDER: What's next for college sports after House settlement?

What would a Super League look like? 

We used five factors for each FBS program to build a Super League. The top 40 teams in four of these five categories scored points with our formula: 

Revenue (scored 40-1)

A Super League would be all about money. We are not blind to that. We awarded points AP Style (40 to 1) for the top 40 revenue-producing schools from the USA Today rankings that were released on March 24. Ohio State, which was No. 1, got 40 points. There is an obvious flaw in this metric. There are 16 FBS football programs at private institutions that do not disclose that information on the USA Today rankings. Programs such as Notre Dame and USC still score high on our formula even without that number factored in, but it would negatively impact programs such as Duke and Stanford in this case. 

Winning percentage (scored 40-1)

We took the winning percentage of the top 40 programs over the last 10 years – the College Football Playoff era. Only schools that were in the FBS for the entirety of that period were included. This rewards Group of 5 schools such as Boise State and Appalachian State, but winning is part of the process of building a FBS program, is it not? 

National championships (10 points each)

A total of 10 points are given for every national championship since the start of the BCS era in 1998. That's 26 years of national champions, with one split championship between LSU and USC in 2003. We could have shortened this time period to 25 years, which would have taken 10 points away from the 1998 Tennessee team.

NFL Draft picks (scored 40-1)

This would be a controversial metric, but the successful programs send players to the next level in this profession.

Academic Progress Rate (APR) (scored 40-1)

This balances that out. If college football still should have an academic requirement to it, then the schools that have a strong APR should be rewarded. This number was taken off the 2022-23 school year and would have to be refined, but academics should always be part of the equation. This is why you reward schools such as Northwestern and Wisconsin – which are tied for the highest APR in that time frame. 

MORE: Ranking top 25 QBs in 2024 | Top 25 coaches

Which teams qualified for the Super League?  

After applying those five metrics, we built a 40-team Super League. The following schools were in our Top 40. 

These 40 schools, which make up about 30% of the 134 schools in the current FBS, would be invited to the Super League: 

RANKSCHOOLPOINTS
1Alabama215
2Ohio State172
3Clemson153
4Michigan143
5Georgia131
6LSU127
7Oklahoma109
8Wisconsin107.5
9Florida State106
10(t)Florida94.5
10(t)Notre Dame94.5
10(t)Washington94.5
13Penn State92
14Auburn88.5
15Utah78
16Oregon76
17Texas73
18Texas A&M70
19Ole Miss69.5
20Iowa66
21Boise State60.5
22USC60
23(t)Missouri54.5
23(t)Cincinnati54.5
25Air Force52
26Minnesota48.5
27Michigan State46.5
28South Carolina44.5
29(t)Miami, Fla.43
29(t)Virginia43
31Tennessee40
32Northwestern39.5
33Louisville38.5
34Mississippi State38
35TCU34.5
36Kentucky34
37Arkansas33
38(t)North Carolina32.5
38(t)UCF32.5
40Wake Forest32

A breakdown of those schools by their current conference affiliation: 

ACC

Schools (7): Clemson (No. 3), Florida State (No. 9), Miami, Fla. (T-No. 29), Virginia (T-No. 29), Louisville (No. 33), North Carolina (T-No. 38), Wake Forest (No. 40) 

How many of these schools were in the Secret Seven? Wake Forest was tied with Appalachian State for the last spot in the Super League. We gave that spot to the school with the highest APR, but imagine if they had to have a play-in game to get in the league? Who would you pick? 

MORE: Ranking ACC quarterback situations for 2024

Big Ten 

Schools (11): Ohio State (No. 2), Michigan (No. 4), Wisconsin (No. 8), Washington (T-No. 10), Penn State (No. 13), Oregon (No. 16), Iowa (No. 20), USC (No. 22), Minnesota (No. 26), Michigan State (No. 27), Northwestern (No. 32) 

Nebraska and UCLA are jarring omissions, but are they? Those programs have under-performed in the current landscape – and their fan bases would be hard-pressed to disagree with that assessment.  Illinois, Indiana and Purdue would also be left behind in this scenario. USC would be ranked higher if their revenue was disclosed. What does this look like in 10 years for these schools after playing in an 18-team conference that is essentially half of a Super League? We will be interested to see those results. 

MORE: Ranking Big Ten quarterback situations for 2024

Big 12 

Schools (4): Utah (No. 8), Cincinnati (T-No. 23), TCU (No. 35), UCF (No. 38) 

None of these schools were in current power conferences at the start of the BCS era. TCU joined the Big 12 in 2012. It could be argued this is the reward for being a BCS buster – which Utah and TCU were before joining the Pac-12 and Big 12, respectively. The Horned Frogs played in a CFP championship. Cincinnati and UCF were CFP-caliber programs before joining the Big 12. It is an intriguing dynamic with the new-look Big 12. Would those schools survive every year against the SEC and Big Ten power-houses? This would be the best way to find out. 

MORE: Ranking Big 12 quarterback situations for 2024

SEC

Schools (15): Alabama (No. 1), Georgia (No. 5), LSU (No. 6), Oklahoma (No. 7), Florida (T-No. 10), Auburn (No. 14), Texas (No. 17), Texas A&M (No. 18), Ole Miss (NO. 19), Missouri (T-No. 23), South Carolina (No. 28), Tennessee (No. 31), Mississippi State (No. 34), Kentucky (No. 36), Arkansas (No. 37) 

Everybody but Vanderbilt makes the cut — for now. This might be a reflection of why SEC commissioner Greg Sankey isn't in a big hurry to add more teams. The SEC has the most competitive league and could probably self-contain half of a Super League. 

MORE: Ranking SEC quarterback situations for 2024

Independent and Group of 5 

Schools (3): Notre Dame (T-No. 10), Boise State (No. 21), Air Force (No. 25)  

Notre Dame finally joins a conference. If there is a Super League, then the Irish are likely going to be a part of it. Boise State and Air Force might draw criticism, but it better not come from those itching to build their own Group of 5 dynasty in "EA Sports College Football '25." Why can't it happen in real life? The Broncos and Falcons have exceptional winning percentages and graduation rates. In reality, the revenue would be a major problem, but this formula allows smaller schools the opportunity to continue to build – and sell – their programs while building toward the ultimate prize. 

Benefits of the Super League 

Is this model perfect? No, but it gives a snapshot of what those haves and have-nots look like now and the challenges they will face. Perhaps relegation – a popular term given how it is used in European soccer – would be a factor. Would the Super League teams be renewed after a 10-year contract? 

The most-obvious benefit of a Super League would be simple. 

"You're going to have better viewership because then you're going to have the best teams playing the best teams more often, which more people are going to watch," Cavale said. 

That is what is going to drive this narrative. A better TV deal and more money that will help support the new financial structure of college football. 

Of course, there would be talk about relegation in this model. Imagine if that 40-team Super League had a 10-year contract. The formula could stand for the next 10 years to see which schools make the cut. We are open to that idea as well. 

Super League rankings by school 

Here is a look at how each school scored in our Super League rankings by the five categories. The top 40 schools in revenue, winning percentage, APR and NFL Draft picks were awarded AP Poll style (40-1). A total of 10 points per national championship over the last 25 years was given to each school. 

Here is where each school ranked in those five categories. 

SCHOOLREVENUEWIN%NATTY (#)APRNFL
Ohio State12272
Texas2-1-T-16
Alabama316T-31
Michigan461T-155
Georgia542-3
LSU6T-102.5-4
Texas A&M729--T-16
Florida8T-342-6
Penn State914--8
Oklahoma1051-9
Auburn11-1T-19T-13
Michigan State12--T-2735
Indiana13----
Virginia14--T-23-
Florida State15232T-2315
Kentucky16---T-31
Clemson1732T-37
Tennessee18-1-34
Oregon19T-10--T-16
Arkansas20---T-27
Iowa2115--21
Wisconsin22T-10-T-122
Louisville23--T-27T-31
Illinois24----
Washington2513-18T-13
Nebraska26----
South Carolina27--T-23T-26
Missouri28--T-11T-27
Minnesota29--T-8T-36
Ole Miss30--T-3T-19
Arizona31----
North Carolina32--T-27T-27
Arizona State33----
Cal34--T-36-
Kansas35----
Utah3617-T-13T-19
Purdue37----
Virginia Tech38----
Iowa State39--T-15-
Mississippi State40--T-1925
Notre Dame-7-T-1110
Boise State-8-T-13-
Appalachian State-9---
Oklahoma State-16---
Memphis-18---
Liberty-19-T-36-
Toledo-20---
Air Force-21-T-8-
San Diego State-22---
TCU-24--T-23
USC-251.5-12
Cincinnati-26-6T-36
NC State-30---
Houston-31--T-38
BYU-32---
Western Kentucky-33---
UAB-36---
Ohio-37---
Louisiana-40---
Miami, Fla.--1T-3611
UCLA----T-23
Stanford---T-27T-26
Pitt---T-23T-31
Boston College---T-19T-38
Baylor---T-34T-38
Maryland----T-38
Northwestern---T-1-
Wake Forest---T-8-
Rice---T-15-
Duke---T-27-
Tulane---T-27-
UNLV---33-
Ball State---T-34-
Georgia Tech---T-36-
Army---T-36-
Temple---T-36-
UCF-T-27-22-
Marshall-T-27---
Troy-T-34---
Kansas State-T-38-T-36-
Coastal Carolina-T-38---

With those rankings, here is how those schools scored in each category. A total of 81 schools scored at least one point. 

RANKSCHOOLCONFREVENUEWIN%NATTYAPRNFLTOTAL
1AlabamaSEC3840603740215
2Ohio StateBig Ten4039203439172
3ClemsonACC2438203734153
4MichiganBig Ten3735102536143
5GeorgiaSEC363720038131
6LSUSEC353025037127
7OklahomaSEC313610032109
8WisconsinBig Ten1930039.519107.5
9Florida StateACC2618201626106
10Notre DameInd.034029.53194.5
11WashingtonBig Ten162802327.594.5
12FloridaSEC336.52003594.5
13Penn StateBig Ten3227003392
14AuburnSEC300102127.588.5
15UtahBig 12524027.521.578
16OregonBig Ten2230002476
17TexasSEC3901002473
18Texas A&MSEC3412002470
19Ole MissSEC11003721.569.5
20IowaBig Ten2026002066
21Boise StateMWC033027.5060.5
22USCBig Ten0161502960
23CincinnatiBig 120150354.554.5
24MissouriSEC130029.51254.5
25Air ForceMWC020032052
26MinnesotaBig Ten1200324.548.5
27Michigan StateBig Ten290011.5646.5
28South CarolinaSEC14001614.544.5
29Miami, Fla.ACC001033043
30VirginiaACC270016043
31TennesseeSEC230100740
32NorthwesternBig Ten00039.5039.5
33LouisvilleACC180011.5938.5
34Mississippi StateSEC100211638
35TCUBig 120170017.534.5
36KentuckySEC25000934
37ArkansasSEC210001233
38UCFBig 12013.5019032.5
39North CarolinaACC90011.51232.5
40Wake ForestACC00032032
41Appalachian StateSun Belt03200032
42IndianaBig Ten28000028
43Iowa StateBig 1220025027
44StanfordACC00011.514.526
45Oklahoma StateBig 1202500025
46LibertySun Belt02203025
47PittACC00016925
48RiceC-USA00025025
49MemphisAmerican02300023
50Boston CollegeACC00021223
51ToledoMAC02100021
52San Diego StateMWC01900019
53UCLABig Ten000017.517.5
54IllinoisBig Ten17000017
55DukeACC00016016
56NebraskaBig Ten15000015
57MarshallSun Belt013.500013.5
58HoustonBig 1201000212
59NC StateACC01100011
60CalACC7003010
61ArizonaBig 1210000010
62BYUBig 12090009
63BaylorBig 120006.528.5
64TulaneAmerican0008.508.5
65UNLVMWC0008.508.5
66Western KentuckyC-USA080008
67Arizona StateBig 12800008
68TroySun Belt06.50006.5
69Ball StateMAC0006.506.5
70KansasBig 12600006
71Kansas StateBig 1202.50305.5
72UABC-USA050005
73OhioMAC040004
74PurdueBig Ten400004
75Virginia TechACC300003
76Georgia TechACC000303
77ArmyIndependent000303
78TempleAmerican000303
79Coastal CarolinaSun Belt02.50002.5
80MarylandBig Ten000022
81LouisianaSun Belt010001

Bill Bender

Bill Bender Photo

Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.