College Football Playoff picture: Who's in, out and knocking on door in Week 12

Bill Bender

College Football Playoff picture: Who's in, out and knocking on door in Week 12 image

Well, the chaos is here. 

With three weeks left until the College Football Playoff becomes final, there are just four remaining undefeated FBS teams in Alabama, Miami, Wisconsin and Central Florida. Fifteen Power 5 teams with two losses or fewer could say they're in the hunt.

MORE: Mark Richt brings back 'The U' we're looking for

We're going to have some more chaos down the stretch. With that in mind, Sporting News will break down the College Football Playoff picture each week, with the four teams we think are in and the field behind them. Bowl projections are coming Monday in advance of the second set of rankings.

Who's in? Here is the playoff picture heading into Week 12:

College Football Playoff picks

1. Alabama (10-0) 

It's a perfect 10-0, but Mississippi State threw a scare at the Crimson Tide with a ball-control attack that included 49 rushing attempts and three rushing touchdowns. Jalen Hurts delivered another clutch drive, however, and Alabama should work out some kinks against Mercer before an Iron Bowl that will decide the SEC West. 

2. Miami (9-0) 

It's a bit of a knee-jerk reaction, but the Hurricanes were dominant on both sides in a 41-8 blowout against Notre Dame that brought back shades of "The U." Now, the challenge for Mark Richt will be not to lose focus the next two weeks against Virginia and Pittsburgh. The ACC championship game against Clemson looks like a play-in game.

3. Oklahoma (9-1) 

That's another quality victory for the Sooners. Nitpick Oklahoma's defense all you want, but it allowed an average 29.3 points per game in victories against Ohio State, Oklahoma State and TCU. Oklahoma also has the Heisman Trophy front runner in Baker Mayfield. It's all lining up in the right direction for the Sooners. 

4. Clemson (9-1)   

This is how the rankings will look this week. We're putting the defending national champions here with the understanding that every game is an elimination game, and the Big Ten champion could get this last spot. If you want to put Wisconsin in this spot, that's fine, too. We don't think a two-ACC playoff is possible, but for the time being these are the best four teams in the country.

MORE: How Georgia's loss to Auburn affects CFB race

The field 

ACC

Unbeatens: Miami

One-loss teams: Clemson

Two-loss teams: None 

Contenders: It's Miami and Clemson. Nobody else can make the playoff at this point, and the challenge for both teams will be not peeking ahead to what could be a fantastic ACC championship game in Charlotte.

Big Ten

Unbeatens: Wisconsin

One-loss teams: None

Two-loss teams: Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan

Contenders: No team received more help from the chaos more than the Buckeyes, who throttled Michigan State 48-3 and watched five teams ranked ahead of them lose. Ohio State is the two-loss team that could do this thing, especially with Michigan still on its schedule. Speaking of Michigan, Wisconsin gets that College GameDay spotlight this week. Penn State is still lurking, but it still needs help.

Big 12 

Unbeatens: None 

One-loss teams: Oklahoma 

Two-loss teams: TCU, Oklahoma State 

Contenders: The Sooners beat the Horned Frogs and Cowboys, and they'll have to beat one of those teams in the Big 12 championship game. Of all the years to add a conference championship game, right? The Sooners feel like the last team standing in this conference.

MORE: Two-loss Ohio State stays alive in playoff race

Pac-12 

Unbeatens: None 

One-loss teams: None

Two-loss teams: USC, Washington, Washington State 

Contenders: Too much cannibalism in this conference; Washington, Washington State and USC each have two losses, despite just one head-to-head matchup among the three teams so far. Washington could beat Washington State and USC and still not reach the playoff because of losses to Arizona State and Stanford. The Trojans have the best chance of the bunch, but it's a thin chance given their loss to Notre Dame.

SEC 

Unbeatens: Alabama

One-loss teams: Georgia

Two-loss teams: Auburn 

Contenders: It's a three-horse race, and an intriguing one at that. Can Auburn really knock off Alabama, then knock off Georgia again? That would be one of the more impressive late-season runs in recent memory. The next three weeks are going to be very interesting for those three programs.

Independent/Group of 5

Unbeatens: UCF

One-loss teams: Memphis

Two-loss teams: Notre Dame, Ohio, Toledo, Boise State, Troy 

Contenders: The Knights and Irish are the only teams still in the discussion. How much losing has to take place before UCF is even considered at this point? It will be interesting to see where it is ranked in the latest set. Notre Dame is likely out after the blowout loss to Miami, but it still might be in the top 10. Don't rule it out.

Bill Bender

Bill Bender Photo

Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.