If Dabo Swinney is really looking for respect, all he needs to do is look at the betting odds for this game or ask an oddsmaker. The Clemson Tigers are short favorites against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Fiesta Bowl even though they are the No. 3 seed in the eyes of the College Football Playoff committee. Clemson has won every game since September by at least 31 points, blowing away the inferior teams in the ACC. That’s what Ohio State was doing against Big Ten opponents earlier in the season, but some of the Buckeyes’ flaws were exposed in their last three games.
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College Football Playoff odds: Ohio State vs. Clemson
- Clemson Tigers -2 vs. Ohio State Buckeyes, O/U 63
There has been even action on this game with Clemson only moving from -1 to -2 over the last few weeks, while the total remained steady at 63. Only 52.9 percent of the spread bets are on the Tigers, so this line shouldn’t move before kickoff. However, the total could rise as 63.4 percent of bets have been on the over.
Ohio State vs. Clemson history
Clemson and Ohio State have met three times before this year’s Fiesta Bowl. Each of those meetings resulted in a win for Clemson, and a pivotal moment for one of the two programs. The Tigers win over the Buckeyes in the 1978 Gator Bowl led to Woody Hayes being fired after he punched a Clemson player on the sidelines. Clemson’s win in the 2014 Orange Bowl signaled the beginning of the rise for the Tigers, and their 31-0 victory in the 2016 Fiesta Bowl paved the way to the school’s second national championship.
When Clemson has the ball
The Tigers have the most pro-ready quarterback in the country. Trevor Lawrence was a bit sluggish through his first four outings of 2019, but he has shined since those early issues. Clemson has blown out every team it has faced with ease since that time, as Lawrence has completed 68.8 percent of his passes for 3,172 yards with 34 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Tee Higgins is one of the best deep ball threats in the country, hauling in 52 receptions for 1,082 yards and 13 touchdowns. Justyn Ross has consistently moved the chains, and Travis Etienne is one of the most dangerous running backs in the country. Etienne has 1,798 total yards and 19 touchdowns, and he is averaging 8.2 YPC.
Ohio State’s defense is the best in the country per SP+. The Buckeyes didn’t miss a beat without Nick Bosa as Chase Young rose to the occasion and became the best defensive player in the nation. Young leads the nation with 16.5 sacks, and he has forced six fumbles this season.
When Ohio State has the ball
Justin Fields has been excellent at quarterback for the Buckeyes. Fields is exactly the quarterback that Ryan Day wants to run this offense, completing 67.5 percent of his passes for 2,953 yards with 40 touchdowns and an interception. He is a very good runner too, averaging 6.7 YPC when you adjust for sack yards, and this ground game could find success against Clemson.
Ohio State has two excellent running backs in J.K. Dobbins and Master Teague III to help Fields move the chains. Dobbins and Teague have combined for 2,609 yards and 24 touchdowns, and Clemson’s front seven isn’t what it was last year. Although the Tigers are allowing 3.0 YPC (eighth in the FBS), they have yet to play an opponent that can test their run defense.
Clemson’s defense has yet to face an offense ranked in the top 30 of SP+. The Tigers have an excellent secondary, but the front seven has not seen an offensive line like this in 2019.
Fiesta Bowl betting trends
- The Tigers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 bowl games.
- Clemson is 19-7 in its last 26 games.
- Ohio State is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games against teams with winning records.
Ohio State vs. Clemson prediction
This is a coin flip game, so go with the slight underdog. Clemson has not seen a team with this much talent all year, and the Buckeyes have an edge since they have been somewhat tested.