We are in the final year of the four-team playoff, and we appear headed for trouble. With the Pac-12 being the deepest conference in the country, the Big 12 featuring a Super 2 of Oklahoma and Texas, Florida State looking like a potential 13-0 ACC champion, in addition to the essential auto-bids of the SEC and Big Ten, a deserving conference champion is going to be denied a chance to play for the national championship.
This is shaping up to be a perfect year for the 12-team playoff, but we will have to wait until 2024. In the meantime, we’ve decided to look at what that field would look like if the expanded playoff were in place at the end of this season. For this exercise, we are using the current AP poll to determine conference champs and at-large bids. The format is the six highest-rated champions and then the next six highest-rated teams. The top four seeds must be conference champs.
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What a 12-team playoff would look like in 2023
With six weeks of the regular season in the books, this is how the seeding would look for a 12-team playoff:
1. Georgia (SEC champ)
2. Michigan (Big Ten champ)
3. Florida State (ACC champ)
4. Oklahoma (Big 12 champ)
5. Ohio State
6. Penn State
7. Washington (Pac-12 champ)
8. Oregon
9. Texas
10. USC
11. Alabama
12. Wyoming (MWC champ)
Oklahoma, Wyoming jump into the field
Two new teams joined the fray after last week’s action, including one that shot all the way up to a first-round bye. Oklahoma, after its last-minute 34-30 win over Texas, now sits as the No. 4 seed as the Big 12 champ, and Wyoming is in as the Group of 5’s rep after a 24-19 win over Fresno State. Notre Dame has fallen out and will have a very hard time making it back to the top 11 after getting blown out by Louisville.
Ohio State remains outside the top four seeds despite being ranked No. 3 in the AP poll thanks to Michigan's presence at No. 2.
What 12-team playoff matchups would look like
First-round matchups
Wyoming at Ohio State – Winner plays Oklahoma
Remember Wyoming played Texas even for three quarters, entering the fourth quarter in Austin deadlocked 10-10. Assuming there is not a shocking upset here, Ohio State-Oklahoma would be a fun next chapter from the 2016-17 home-and-home split these teams contested.
Alabama at Penn State – Winner plays Florida State
This is the first-round game that would get the headlines, and waiting in the wings is a Florida State program that is hoping it has bounced all the way back.
USC at Washington – Winner plays Michigan
Three future Big Ten teams in this pod. Three potential first-round NFL quarterbacks. Whoever comes out of here would be quite worthy.
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Texas at Oregon – Winner plays Georgia
Do you think Texas would be scared of the Bulldogs after getting its 10-point win in Tuscaloosa? And if Oregon gets through, the Ducks would be glad to take another shot at a lesser version of the Bulldogs than the one that embarrassed them last season.
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