With so many games on Saturday’s college football slate, inevitably we find a few weak lines that the oddsmakers overlook. Below we isolate those precious few in Week 7 as we look to grab the value and bust our bookmakers.
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Michigan vs. Illinois
Saturday, Oct. 12, noon ET
Line: -19.5 to -23
It wasn’t long ago when Michigan fans were calling for the head of coach Jim Harbaugh after their team’s humbling 35-14 loss to Wisconsin. This defeat came hot off the heels of Michigan’s 24-21 overtime win against Army in which the Wolverines were tagged as 21.5-point favorites. However, things have turned around since then and Michigan is now seeking its third consecutive victory after winning their last two and covering the number against Rutgers and Iowa.
Now everyone has jumped back on the Big Blue bandwagon as evidenced by the 3.5-point spike in a line that opened with Michigan as 19.5-point road chalk to where it now stands at 23. Michigan’s opponent on Saturday, Big Ten rival Illinois, has dropped three straight, with the most recent being a 40-17 thrashing by Minnesota.
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The public has a very short memory and oftentimes the college football odds are moved by an influx of money by the masses who base their decisions on the most recent performances. Such is the case here but the last time the Illini played at Memorial Stadium they hung tough as 13-point home underdogs against Nebraska and bowed 42-38 yet easily covered the number.
Michigan will win this game but the value we are now getting with Illinois allows us to take advantage and get the home dog with well over a three-touchdown head start. If Michigan was to win a conference game by 21 points on the road, it would be considered a solid victory but it would be those who backed the Illini as 23-point home underdogs in their college football picks who would get the cover.
Let’s grab all those points and let the squares take the bad number on the favorite while we get plenty of value with the home pup here.
Final score: Michigan 34, Illinois 17
Free college football pick: Illinois to cover +23 (-115)
Cincinnati vs. Houston
Saturday, Oct. 12, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: -5.5 to -7.5
This might not be the sexiest matchup on the board but it’s one of the few where the number has breached the critical number 7 and gone half a point over. The Bearcats opened on the college football odds as 5.5-point road chalk, but as of this writing that number has drifted to 7 ½ and we are ready to pounce on what we feel is a live home dog in Houston with north of a touchdown head start.
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Cincinnati is looking to avenge a 40-16 home loss to Houston the last time these teams met back in 2016 and gunning for their fourth consecutive victory. The Bearcats broke UCF’s 19-game conference winning streak last week in a 27-24 victory as 3 ½ point home underdogs. That resonates with the masses which is just one reason this line has jumped to 7 ½, while another would be their 23rd ranked defense in the nation.
Lastly, the Cougars will see sophomore quarterback Clayton Tune in just his second career start after being inserted into the starting role after senior QB D'Eriq King announced he was going to sit out the season and transfer out of Houston. The public is driving this number up to a point where it’s too tempting not to take the points with the home team as we watch the Houston Cougars keep pace to get the cover and possibly pull an upset on Saturday.
Final score: Cincinnati 27, Houston 24
Free college football pick: Houston to cover +7.5 (-105)