Each week we take a careful look at the college football slate of games and zero in on those precious few where the line has shifted too much, allowing us to take advantage of some serious value.
Let’s see what Week 5 of the college football season brings.
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Ole Miss at Alabama (-34 to -38.5)
Saturday, Sept. 28, 3:30 p.m. ET
Not surprisingly, the college football odds on Alabama opened at a whopping 34 against SEC rival, Ole Miss. The public adores laying the big lumber and when the favorite is Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide, well, the sky's the limit. So here we are later in the week and that number has jumped 4 ½ points at some of the best online sportsbooks, because Joe Q.
Public can’t wait until Saturday to send it in on the perennial powerhouse from Tuscaloosa.
Adding to all the hoopla surrounding Alabama’s devastating attack is the performance of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who became the only player in Alabama’s storied history to toss five touchdown passes in consecutive games.
WEEK 5 PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread
This brings his season total to 17 TD passes over the first four games and he’s done it all without throwing even one interception. The most public team in the nation now has a junior under center dazzling at every turn and you wonder why the number has skyrocketed to an almost absurd 38 ½ points?
Let’s understand that the team the Tide is taking on this Saturday is hardly chopped liver.
Ole Miss is 2-2 on the season and notched a solid 31-17 win over conference rival Arkansas three weeks ago as five-point favorites. And despite starting quarterback Matt Corral going down with bruised ribs last week against California, his backup John Rhys Plumlee, was perfect in relief after going 7-for-7 in the 28-20 loss to the Golden Bears.
Alabama will defeat Ole Miss but it could be looking ahead, after the bye week, when the Tide travel to College Station to take on the No. 23 Aggies in SEC action. There’s value on the Rebels here and we intend to take all those extra points, courtesy of the blind faith of the square bettors who never saw a number they didn’t like when it comes to betting Bama.
Final score: Alabama 49, Ole Miss 17
Free pick: Ole Miss to cover +38.5 (-110)
N.C. State at Florida State (-4.5 to -7)
Saturday, Sept. 28, 7:30 p.m. ET
If you’ve been a regular reader of this column you know we have loyalty to one, and only one thing – getting the most value at the best number. Last week we advised a play on Florida State over Louisville in our college football picks because the odds plummeted on the Seminoles from -8.5 to -6.5, traveling through the critical 7, and giving us plenty of value at -6 ½. When the dust settled, the Seminoles emerged with a 35-24 victory and all those who chose to ignore the “steam” and grab the value, got paid.
Well, it’s a new week bringing new opportunities and this time we will advise a play against FSU and grab the points with N.C. State. Florida State’s starting quarterback James Blackman suffered a sprained MCL against the Cardinals last week and may not be able to go. Couple that with a porous Seminoles’ defense and we see the Wolfpack grounding and pounding their way all night long, which will chew up the clock and keep this one close.
N.C. State has won the last two and has had ATS covers over their last three meetings between these squads. An outright win for N.C. State wouldn’t surprise us but we will gladly take the touchdown head start we are being given here.
Final score: N.C. State 34, Florida State 31
Free pick: N.C. State to cover +7 (-109)