The November slate of college football games continues with another big weekend of conference- and College Football Playoff-defining games.
This week, that includes headlining matchups between No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 12 Baylor and No. 5 Georgia at No. 13 Auburn, but those are far from the only big games to enjoy.
WEEK 12 OUTLOOK: Bowls | Playoff
Other ranked AP Top 25 matchups include No. 24 Indiana at No. 9 Penn State, No. 21 Navy at No. 16 Notre Dame and No. 7 Minnesota at No. 23 Minnesota. Had Wake Forest avoided the upset of Virginia Tech last week, it's game against No. 3 Clemson would have made for an incredible sixth game between AP Top 25 opponents.
We at Sporting News are 67-15 through 11 weeks of the college football season after a 5-3 outing Week 11. With that, SN's picks for the Week 12 slate of games (lines provided courtesy of Sportsbook Review as of Monday, Nov. 11, at 5 p.m. ET):
Arizona at No. 6 Oregon (-27)
The Ducks are sitting pretty at No. 6 in the latest AP Top 25, and it’s likely they’ll be even higher in the next set of Playoff rankings after the losses to Alabama and Penn State. But that’s a double-edged sword: Oregon mustn’t falter under the pressure that comes with controlling one’s Playoff destiny. That shouldn’t be an issue this week against a 4-5 Arizona team that surrenders 481 yards per game (“good” for 124th, nationally). Justin Herbert and Co. should feast on the Wildcats’ porous defense, but Arizona can move the ball up and down the field too. Oregon will give up some big plays, but assuming the Ducks avoid a complete meltdown, they should win by a comfortable margin.
Pick: Oregon 45, Arizona 27
No. 24 Indiana at No. 9 Penn State (-14)
Were it not for Minnesota, Indiana might be the surprise of the year out of the Big Ten. The Hoosiers have already matched their best record since 2007, and still have three games left to play. That said, the loss of quarterback Michael Penix Jr. will make it a lot harder for the Hoosiers to remain competitive vs. Penn State, even with Peyton Ramsey, who started all of last season for Indiana. Look for Penn State’s Shaka Toney and Yetur Gross-Matos to lead a furious defensive effort after the Nittany Lions gave up a season-high 31 points against Minnesota. Penn State will look to make a statement against Indiana in this one.
Pick: Penn State 35, Indiana 17
Michigan State at No. 14 Michigan (-13.5)
This game doesn’t have quite the shine as some of the other rivalry games to be played this season, but that won’t matter once the Spartans and Wolverines kick things off in The Big House. Michigan has rebounded nicely from its loss to Penn State, downing Notre Dame and Maryland by a combined score of 83-21. Michigan State, meanwhile, is reeling after losing four straight Big Ten contests, giving up at least 28 points in each loss. That suggests they’ll struggle again against Shea Patterson and Co., but never discount “little brother.” Expect the Spartans to hang tough for a while in a pride game.
Pick: Michigan 27, Michigan State 17
No. 21 Navy at No. 16 Notre Dame (-9.5)
Who saw this as a ranked matchup ahead of the season? The Midshipmen run the nation’s top-rated rushing offense (357 ypg) by way of its vaunted triple-option attack. How will that fare against a Notre Dame defense that gives up an average of 160 rushing yards per game while allowing nine touchdowns and forcing 17 fumbles? If Navy quarterback Malcolm Perry can play keep-away well enough, you could see a low-scoring game that comes down to the wire. Ian Book will have to make the most of the Irish’s scoring opportunities.
Pick: Notre Dame 24, Navy 20
PLAYOFF-DEFINING LOSSES: Alabama | Penn State
Wake Forest at No. 3 Clemson (-33)
The Demon Deacons were one win away from making this a ranked matchup with Clemson, but a thorough 36-17 beatdown from Virginia Tech knocked them from the AP Top 25. There’s nothing the Hokies do that Clemson can’t do better, but it’s worth knowing Tech won on the strength of its run game and shut out Wake Forest in the fourth quarter. Look for Clemson running back Travis Etienne (1,214 rushing yards, 13 touchdowns) and the defense (251 yards, 11.5 points allowed per game) to lead a similarly dominant performance.
Pick: Clemson 52, Wake Forest 14
No. 7 Minnesota at No. 23 Iowa (-3)
Minnesota remains alive in the Playoff race another week, and now comes the second of that all-important four-game stretch to end the season. If the Golden Gophers can beat Iowa in Kinnick Stadium, it needs only to beat one-win Northwestern to clinch the Big Ten West. P.J. Fleck has to keep his team from peering ahead, though: The Hawkeyes are one of college football’s best defensive teams, allowing an average of 289 yards and 11.7 points per game. Both teams are coming off hard games (Iowa against Wisconsin), so it could be sloppy in the beginning. But Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan (2,100 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, four interceptions) should pick things up in the second half en route to a big win.
Pick: Minnesota 27, Iowa 23
No. 10 Oklahoma (-10) at No. 12 Baylor
This game has massive implications for the Big 12 and Playoff. A loss for either team knocks them from Playoff contention, but not out of the Big 12 running. Baylor played a tough game in a 29-23 win over TCU on Saturday, but faces an entirely different beast in Oklahoma’s offense, which ranks first and second in the country, respectively, in yards per game (587) and points per game (48.4). That said, the Sooners must play a better game after earning a narrow 42-41 win over Iowa State, which came after Oklahoma built a 21-point halftime lead. That’s especially true for Jalen Hurts, who couldn’t get anything going in the second half of that game. Oklahoma rebounds to knock Baylor out of the Playoff running.
Pick: Oklahoma 40, Baylor 30
No. 5 Georgia (-3) at No. 13 Auburn
Auburn ran Georgia out of Jordan-Hare Stadium the last time the Bulldogs visited, scoring a massive 40-17 win over the No. 2 team in the country. The Tigers’ defense will do its part to replicate that score, attempting to limit what has been a conservative offensive attack from Georgia.The battle between Georgia’s deep running back corps and Auburn’s defensive front will be fantastic, and will go a long way in deciding who ultimately wins the way. The kicker, though, will be the quarterback play. Bo Nix has been subject to some freshman mistakes, while Georgia’s Jake Fromm has been a little more consistent. That will be the difference in this rivalry game; the Bulldogs should escape Jordan-Hare with a narrow win.
Pick: Georgia 24, Auburn 21
