The Red River Showdown is the highlight of the Week 6 college football schedule – which features four games between ranked teams.
No. 4 Texas and No. 12 Oklahoma meet in a battle of unbeaten teams – the first time that's happened since 2011 – and this will be the last regular-season meeting before those schools join the SEC. That is a huge piece of the College Football Playoff puzzle, and it's at noon ET on ABC.
The Lone Star State isn't the only place to be. The Bluegrass State features two ranked unbeaten teams in prime-time this week. No. 20 Kentucky travels to No. 1 Georgia at 7 p.m. on ESPN, and No. 25 Louisville gets a shot at No. 10 Notre Dame at 7:30 p.m. on ABC.
The other matchup between ranked teams features No. 23 LSU at No. 20 Missouri at 12 p.m. on ESPN. There are a total of 15 games involving teams ranked in the AP Top 25 in Week 6. Here is a look at our track record for the 2023 season.
- Straight up: 80-12 (14-2 in Week 5)
- ATS: 44-46-2 (8-8 in Week 5)
Here are our picks against the spread for Week 6
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MORE: Ranking every college team from No. 1 (Georgia) to No. 133 (Sam Houston)
Week 6 Top 25 picks against the spread
Saturday, Oct. 7
- No. 3 Texas (-4.5) vs. No. 12 Oklahoma (12 p.m., ABC)
This line has ticked up to -5 at some books, so there is confidence in the Longhorns – who won the Red River Showdown 49-0 last season. This is a different Oklahoma team with a healthy Dillon Gabriel. Eight of the last 10 matchups have been decided by one score, but only one of those games was by less than five points. Quinn Ewers had 289 yards and four TDs in last year's game, but watch the completion percentage. If it's around 70 percent, the Longhorns will be just fine.
Pick: Texas wins 38-31 and COVERS the spread.
- Maryland at No. 4 Ohio State (-18.5) (12 p.m., Fox)
This is Maryland's best start since 2001 and its best team since coming to the Big Ten. The Shoe has never been kind to the Terps – they have lost four games there by an average of 46.8 points. This is a different team, and a chance for veteran quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa to make a statement against a defense that has allowed just 8.5 points per game. Maryland also has forced three turnovers per game against FBS teams. This will be a trendy upset, but the Buckeyes will be ready.
Pick: Ohio State wins 35-20 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No.23 LSU (-6.5) at No. 20 Missouri (12 p.m., ESPN)
Missouri has covered in three straight weeks and four of their five games have hit the over this season. LSU was stunned by Ole Miss in Week 5, and now the trick is maintaining focus on the road. Jordan Travis and Jaxson Dart torched LSU's defense, and Brady Cook has a 72% completion percentage. Missouri beat LSU 45-41 at Faurot Field in 2020. We think LSU bounces back, but this is a tricky one.
Pick: LSU wins 35-27 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 13 Washington State at UCLA (-3.5) (3 p.m., Pac-12 Network)
This line has stuck despite the fact the Cougars are ranked and have been a super dog this season with two outright upsets. Both teams had a bye week, and we're looking forward to the quarterback duel between Cam Ward and Dante Moore. These teams haven't played since the Bruins won a 67-63 shootout on Sept. 21, 2019. The last five meetings have been one-score games.
Pick: Washington State wins 34-33 in an UPSET.
- Virginia Tech at No. 5 Florida State (-25.5) (3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN)
That's a huge spread for a conference game knowing the Hokies have not given up more than 35 points in a game and they are coming off a victory against Pitt. Florida State presents far more challenges to defend. The Seminoles had a bye week, and this is just their second home game of the season. Look for Florida State to get the running game back on track here, but that line just is a little too much.
Pick: Florida State wins 41-17 and FAILS TO COVER the spread
- No. 11 Alabama (-3.5) at Texas A&M (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Quarterback Jalen Milroe has settled in as the starter for the Crimson Tide – and he made his first start last season against Texas A&M. Aggies QB Max Johnson has two career starts against Alabama when he was at LSU in the 2020 and 2021 seasons. The Aggies have had balance on offense with Johnson, and the defense has been great with the exception of the Miami debacle. That said, a defensive game favors the Crimson Tide.
Pick: Alabama wins 25-18 and COVERS the spread.
- Syracuse at No. 14 North Carolina (-8.5) (3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN)
The Orange had three turnovers in a 31-14 loss to Clemson in Week 6. Now, they face the Tar Heels – who had a bye week to prepare for Garrett Shrader. Clemson took away Shrader as a running threat, and that led to problems. The Tar Heels are 3-0 ATS when favored by single digits this season.
Pick: North Carolina wins 34-24 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 20 Kentucky at No. 1 Georgia (-14.5) (7 p.m., ESPN)
The Bulldogs are 0-4-1 ATS this season despite their unbeaten record, and they have trailed at halftime against South Carolina and Auburn. We've been waiting for that all-out blowout that reminds voters Georgia is still the team to beat, and Kentucky won't be easy. Ray Davis is coming off a 280-yard, four-TD performance against Florida. Will Devin Leary protect the ball on the road? Georgia has won the last five meetings at home in this series by 26.6 points per game.
Pick: Georgia wins 31-17 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.
MORE: Why Georgia should no longer be No. 1
- No. 2 Michigan (-19.5) at Minnesota (7:30 p.m., Peacock)
The Wolverines lead the FBS in scoring defense (5.8), and they have allowed seven points or less in their five games this season. Minnesota is 3-0 S/U at home this season, but they have allowed 30.7 points per game in their last three games. Michigan has won the last three meetings – including a 49-24 victory in 2020. Minnesota has allowed 400-plus passing yards twice this season. This could be a big game for J.J. McCarthy.
Pick: Michigan wins 35-14 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 10 Notre Dame (-7) at No. 25 Louisville (7:30 p.m., ABC)
The Irish are in prime-time for the third straight weekend against an undefeated opponent, this time against an improved Louisville team under first-year coach Jeff Brohm. The Cardinals have a solid defense that allows 17.2 points per game, and the Irish cannot afford to look ahead to the Week 7 showdown with undefeated USC. The Irish covered their last two single-digit spreads against NC State and Duke, and Sam Hartman leads another road victory that sets up the showdown with the Trojans.
Pick: Notre Dame wins 31-21 and COVERS the spread.
- Arkansas at No. 16 Ole Miss (-11.5) (7:30 p.m., SEC Network)
Ole Miss is coming off a signature victory under Lane Kiffin and a whirlwind two-week stretch with the loss to Alabama and the victory against LSU. What's left in the tank for a matchup against a reeling Arkansas team that has lost three straight games? Ole Miss is 3-0 ATS as a favorite this season. The home team has won the last four meetings, and this series is no stranger to wild moments. Look for Jaxson Dart and KJ Jefferson to author the latest chapter.
Pick: Ole Miss wins 38-28 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- Georgia Tech at No. 17 Miami (-19.5) (8 p.m., ACC Network)
Miami had a bye week, and the offense has operated at a high level with quarterback Tyler Van Dyke. The Hurricanes have scored 38 or more points in every game this season. Georgia Tech is coming off an embarrassing 38-27 loss to Bowling Green and demoted its defensive coordinator. The Yellow Jackets are 2-1 ATS this season, and this is the backs-against-the wall-moment.
Pick: Miami wins 41-20 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 24 Fresno State (-6.5) at Wyoming (8 p.m., Fox)
The Mountain West gets a prime-time spotlight game between the Bulldogs and Cowboys. Wyoming beat Texas Tech and Appalachian State at home in non-conference play, and running back Harrison Waylee averages 8.3 yards per carry. How will the Cowboys slow down Fresno State quarterback Mikey Keene, who has a 151.3 passer rating? The Bulldogs have shut out the Cowboys each of the last two seasons.
Pick: Fresno State wins 24-17 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 15 Oregon State (-9.5) at Cal (10 p.m., Pac-12 Network)
Oregon State grinded out a 21-7 victory against Utah, and they had an extra day to prepare for the Golden Bears. Watch the turnovers here. Cal has a +5 turnover margin, but they had three turnovers in losses to Auburn and Washington. D.J. Uiagalelei protects the football, and the Beavers score another Pac-12 victory on the road.
Pick: Oregon State wins 28-17 and COVERS the spread.
- Arizona at No. 9 USC (-21.5) (10:30 p.m., ESPN)
USC has won 10 in a row in the series, but the last three victories against the Wildcats have been by an average of 6.3 points per game. Noah Fifita filled in well for Jayden De Laura last week, and Arizona is 2-0 ATS as an underdog in a pair of one-score losses this season. The Trojans are 2-3 ATS this season despite an offense that averages an FBS-best 53.6 points per game.
Pick: USC wins 49-28 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
