Week 4 of the college football season features an incredible lineup that features six matchups between teams ranked in the AP Top 25.
The matchup between No. 6 Ohio State and No. 9 Notre Dame is the highlight of that schedule and will share the prime-time spotlight with No. 25 Iowa at No. 7 Penn State in a "Whiteout" game.
Deion Sanders' undefeated Buffaloes face No. 10 Oregon in the 3:30 p.m. window in what should be another ratings bonanza for ABC.
No. 15 Alabama and Clemson are on the spot this week, too. Both perennial College Football Playoff powers are hoping to avoid a second September loss. The Tigers face No. 4 Florida State, and the Crimson Tide face No. 13 Ole Miss.
There also are two other ranked matchups in the Pac-12. No. 22 UCLA takes on No. 11 Utah in the afternoon and No. 14 Oregon State (-2.5) travels to No. 21 Washington State in the prime-time window.
BENDER: Week 4 will be the best week of the season to date
Among those games, we picked two upsets this week. Here is a look at our track record for the 2023 season. We had a decent week in Week 3 and are still trying to get back over .500.
- Straight up: 48-9 (18-2 in Week 3)
- ATS: 27-30 (10-10 in Week 3)
Here are our picks against the spread for Week 4 (Odds courtesy of BetMGM.com):
MORE: SN's team rankings, from No. 1 (Georgia) to No. 133 (Buffalo)
Week 4 Top 25 picks against the spread
Saturday, September 23
- No. 4 Florida State (-1.5) at Clemson (12 p.m., ABC)
Jordan Travis rallied Florida State in the fourth quarter in last year's 34-28 loss last season, and this is a chance to break the Tigers' seven-game win streak in the series. Clemson has limited opposing quarterbacks to a 52.1% completion percentage, so Travis will have to be at his best with his receivers. On the other side, Cade Klubnik has a 38.2% completion percentage under pressure. Can the Tigers keep him clean against the Seminoles' pass rush? This could be one of those patented Clemson upsets complete with an emotional Dabo Swinney speech afterward.
Pick: Clemson beats Florida State 31-24 in an UPSET.
- No. 16 Oklahoma (-14) at Cincinnati (12 p.m., Fox)
The Bearcats welcome the Sooners in their Big 12 opener. Cincinnati ranks eighth in the FBS with 239.3 rushing yards per game with Florida transfer Emory Jones and LSU transfer Corey Kliner. Can Cincinnati slow down Oklahoma's offense – which is led by Dillon Gabriel? He ranks second in the FBS in pass efficiency, and unless the Bearcats can generate turnovers, they will be trouble. Who wins the battle of contrasting styles? The better offense. Look for Oklahoma to improve to 4-0 ATS.
Pick: Oklahoma wins 38-21 and COVERS the spread.
- Rutgers at No. 2 Michigan (-25.5) (12 p.m., BTN)
Michigan is an example of how the clock rules can impact the spread. The Wolverines lead the FBS in scoring defense (5.3 ppg.), but they are 0-3 ATS. The methodical style will continue with Jim Harbaugh's return, but Rutgers is not a pushover. Two of the last three meetings have been one-score games, and Schiano will be happy to engage in a battle of tough run defenses. Rutgers allows 2.5 yards per carry; a shade less than the Wolverines at 2.6. Look for Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy to be the difference.
Pick: Michigan wins 30-14 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 13 Ole Miss at No. 15 Alabama (-6.5) (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Is it too early to pile on Alabama? Nick Saban hasn't found the right quarterback, and it showed in a 17-3 victory against South Florida. It's tempting to take Ole Miss here. Lane Kiffin has the offense rolling, and Jaxson Dart has a 202.5 efficiency rating. Only six other FBS quarterbacks can say that. So, why are we hesitant to pick the Crimson Tide to lose two straight games at Bryant-Denny Stadium for the first time since 2007? Jalen Milroe gets the start, and the Crimson Tide win ugly.
Pick: Alabama wins 28-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 22 UCLA at No. 11 Utah (-4.5) (3:30 p.m., Fox)
UCLA beat Utah 42-32 last season, but now the Bruins have to hit the road. Freshman Dante Moore has enjoyed a fast start at quarterback, and UCLA has a high-powered rushing attack. The Bruins scored 28 second-half points and averaged 5.3 yards per carry against the Utes last season. It's a different ball game on the road, and Utah is 23-1 S/U and 15-9 ATS at home since 2019. Nate Johnson also is an exciting freshman quarterback.
Pick: Utah wins 34-27 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 19 Colorado at No. 10 Oregon (-20.5) (3:30 p.m., ABC)
This spread is high, perhaps because Colorado will be without Travis Hunter, who was knocked out of Week 3's game against Colorado State because of a dirty hit. Oregon's offense will be the best test yet for Colorado's defense, which still allows 5.0 yards per carry. The Ducks are 7-1 S/U and 7-1 ATS at home under second-year coach Dan Lanning. The lone loss was to Washington last season. The Buffaloes take their first loss under Deion Sanders, but Shedeur Sanders makes enough plays in the passing game to sneak in a cover.
Pick: Oregon wins 48-28 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
BENDER: Brady mode? Shedeur Sanders channeled John Elway in CU's comeback win
- No. 18 Duke (-21.5) at UConn (3:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network)
UConn has had trouble generating offense, and Duke’s offense is generating 6.3 yards per rushing attempt around quarterback Riley Leonard. The Blue Devils should be able to work with that on the road. Still, this is a bit of a look-ahead spot with Notre Dame looming, and the Huskies are 3-1 ATS as a home underdog under coach Jim Mora Jr.
Pick: Duke wins 34-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 20 Miami (-25.5) at Temple (3:30 p.m., ESPN2)
Miami averages 46.7 points per game, and Tyler Van Dyke owns a 76% completion percentage through three weeks. The Owls are improved – and at home – but this is the same team that lost 36-7 to Rutgers in Week 2. The Hurricanes are better on offense around Van Dyke, and that becomes apparent in the second half. The Hurricanes have won 13 straight in this old Big East rivalry, a streak that dates back to 1930.
Pick: Miami wins 45-17 and COVERS the spread.
- UTSA at No. 23 Tennessee (-20.5) (4 p.m., SEC Network)
UTSA quarterback Frank Harris (toe) did not play in Week 3 at Army, and the offense struggled until late when Eddie Lee Marburger gave a spark. Tennessee is coming off a disappointing loss to Florida – and the Roadrunners allow just 2.9 yards per carry. That means Joe Milton is going to have to be on point. This could change depending on Harris' status, but look for the Vols to get well here.
Pick: Tennessee wins 42-20 and COVERS the spread.
- Arkansas at No. 12 LSU (-17.5) (7 p.m., ESPN)
All three LSU games have hit the over this season, something to keep in mind with a home game against the Razorbacks. Jayden Daniels will establish an immediate connection with Malik Nabers, who had 239 receiving yards against Mississippi State in Week 3. The last three meetings have been decided by three points.
Pick: LSU wins 42-19 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 14 Oregon State (-2.5) at No. 21 Washington State (7 p.m., Fox)
The Beavers won the "Left Behind Bowl" 24-10 last season, which broke Washington State’s eight-game win streak in the rivalry. Oregon State has not won at Martin Stadium since 2013. This is a fun showcase for quarterback play with Oregon State’s D.J. Uiagalelei and Washington State’s Cameron Ward. Wards leads a late scoring drive for the go-ahead touchdown, and the Cougars come up with a second impressive September home win.
Pick: Washington State wins 31-25 in an UPSET.
- Charlotte at No. 25 Florida (-28) (7 p.m., SEC Network)
Charlotte jumped out to a 14-0 lead against Maryland on Sept. 9, so Florida will have to be aware of a potential hangover spot here, and the Gators are 2-5 ATS as a home favorite under Billy Napier. Quarterback Jalon Jones has a 58.5% completion percentage, but he averages 6.1 yards per carry. It’s a lot of points for the Gators, even with the decided advantage.
Pick: Florida wins 40-14 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 6 Ohio State (-3) at No. 9 Notre Dame (7:30 p.m., NBC)
We thought this line would be higher considering how Ohio State’s offense looked in Week 3 with Kyle McCord settling in as the starting quarterback. The Buckeyes have won the last six meetings (which includes two bowl games) by an average of 14.6 points per game. Sam Hartman has changed the conversation a bit – and Notre Dame has a big-play passing attack now. Will they make enough plays against an improved Buckeyes’ defense that allows just 6.7 points per game? If this line ticks up throughout the week, then we will be even more confident.
Pick: Ohio State wins 31-24 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 24 Iowa at No. 7 Penn State (-14) (7:30 p.m., CBS)
Penn State lost the last two meetings with Iowa, but this team has a different look. The Nittany Lions have no turnovers through three weeks with starting quarterback Drew Allar, and the defense is limiting opponents to 3.1 yards per rush. This could be similar to last week’s matchup against Illinois. The Hawkeyes improved on offense, and Cade McNamara did win at Beaver Stadium in his last start in 2021, albeit with Michigan. The "Whiteout" makes a difference. Penn State rolls on.
Pick: Penn State wins 35-16 and COVERS and the spread.
- UAB at No. 1 Georgia (-41.5) (7:30 p.m., ESPN2)
Much like Michigan, the Bulldogs are tough to pick because of their methodical style of play. UAB allowed an average of 45 points per game in losses to Georgia Southern and Louisiana. The Bulldogs will be able to get their running game going, but they have failed to cover in three games – and the under hit every time. All UAB coach Trent Dilfer has to do is get to 10 points for the cover.
Pick: Georgia wins 49-10 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 3 Texas (-14.5) at Baylor (7:30 p.m., ABC)
The home team has won the last five meetings in the series, and that included the Longhorns’ 38-27 victory against Baylor last season. It’s a prime-time road game for Quinn Ewers. Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson has a 45.2% completion percentage. The Bears need to have success running the football in order to have a chance. There is a risk for a Longhorns’ blowout, but we’ll trust that home-team stat to at least squeak out a cover.
Pick: Texas wins 38-28 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 17 North Carolina (-7) at Pitt (8 p.m., ACC Network)
This line might tick up before kickoff. The Tar Heels hit the road for an ACC test against a reeling Pitt team that averaged just 13.5 points per game in losses to Cincinnati and West Virginia. North Carolina won 42-24 last year. The previous 10 meetings were one-score games. Maye had 388 passing yards and five TDs in last year’s matchup. This is one of those tricky road favorite spreads, but we think the Tar Heels cover.
Pick: North Carolina wins 30-22 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 5 USC (-34) at Arizona State (10:30 p.m., Fox)
The Trojans had a bye week to prepare for their first road game. USC was 2-2 ATS as a road favorite last season, and three Arizona State quarterbacks combined for five interceptions against Fresno State in Week 3. It will be a little better at home, but the Trojans present too many problems with that high-powered offense led by Caleb Williams.
Pick: USC wins 52-14 and COVERS the spread.
- Cal at No. 8 Washington (-21.5) (10:30 p.m., ESPN)
The Huskies beat the Golden Bears 28-21 last season, and Michael Penix had 374 passing yards on 51 attempts. This is an improved Cal team that proved it could play with Auburn in Week 2, but this is on the road. Penix is in the Heisman Trophy hunt, and Jalen McMillan’s leg injury appears to be less serious than it appeared against Michigan State. Cal ranks fifth in the FBS with 242.7 rushing yards per game. That keeps them alive for the cover.
Pick: Washington wins 42-21 but FAILS TO COVER the spread
