College football picks, predictions against the spread for Week 3

Week 3 of the college football season features a lot of double-take matchups made possible by realignment. 

That theme starts with the Friday night matchup between No. 20 Arizona and No. 14 Kansas State. This Big 12 matchup features SN Preseason All-American and Heisman candidate WR Tetairoa McMillan and Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson. 

No. 24 Boston College and first-year coach Bill O'Brien takes on No. 6 Missouri in the only other matchup between ranked teams this week Saturday.

In what used to be a conference game, Oregon takes on Oregon State as one of college football's best rivalries carries on.  No. 4 Alabama travels to Wisconsin in another SEC vs Big Ten measuring stick game, and No. 18 Notre Dame will try to bounce back against Purdue in the battle for the Shillelagh.

Each week, we will pick those matchups against the spread. A look at how we fared in Week 2 (including our Nebraska-Colorado prediction, which was an unranked game): 

• Straight up: 26-8 (16-4 in Week 2) 
• Against the spread: 16-18 (8-12 in Week 2) 

Here are our picks against the spread for Week 3: 

College football Week 3 picks against the spread

Friday, Sept. 20

• No. 20 Arizona at No. 14 Kansas State (-7) (8 p.m., Fox) 

This line hasn't moved in what should be a back-and-forth Big 12 showdown. Somewhat surprisingly, Arizona is 0-2 ATS this season. Can they recapture that super-dog mentality from last season where they were 6-0 ATS? Kansas State's methodical run-the-ball, stop-the-run style will work – especially if they can limit the targets for McMillan. Kansas State was 6-2 ATS at home last season. This is a tough game to pick, and we just have a hunch Kansas State beats the trends here. 

Pick: Kansas State wins 33-24 and COVERS the spread. (Kansas State won 31-7)

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Saturday, Sept. 21 

• No. 4 Alabama (-15.5) at Wisconsin (12 p.m., Fox) 

This is the third marquee Big Ten-SEC showdown in as many weeks, and a chance for the Badgers to score an upset against the Crimson Tide. Wisconsin's offense still hasn't gotten off the ground in the Luke Fickell era, while Alabama QB Jalen Milroe has a 205.6 passer efficiency rating Alabama's offense has been humming.  That is a big number for a road game, but Kalen DeBoer will be aggressive to put this game away. 

Pick: Alabama wins 35-14 and COVERS the spread. 

•  Arkansas State at No. 17 Michigan (-24) (12 p.m., Big Ten Network) 

Bettors might be down on the Wolverines because of the offensive struggles, and Michigan is 0-2 ATS at home this season. Arkansas State squeaked out one-score victories against Central Arkansas and Tulsa. Can they keep it close in the Big House? The Wolverines need a get-well game on offense, and the Red Wolves allow 199 rushing yards per game on 6.2 yards per carry.

Pick: Michigan wins 38-10 and COVERS the spread. 

MORE: Reality check for Michigan's offense

• No. 13 Oklahoma State (-20.5) at Tulsa (12 p.m., ESPN2) 

Oklahoma State has won the last nine meetings in the series, but the last three meetings have been decided by an average of 11 points per game. QB Kirk Francis has played well for the Golden Hurricane, and they are decent at stacking up against the run. Despite the close calls and the rivalry factor, Oklahoma State finally gets Ollie Gordon II on track, and that wears on Tulsa in the second half. The Cowboys were 3-2 ATS on the road last season. 

Pick: Oklahoma State wins 42-20 and COVERS the spread. 

• No. 16 LSU (-7) at South Carolina (12 p.m. ABC) 

South Carolina is getting the ESPN "College GameDay" treatment, and they will need to get the ground game going behind LaNorris Sellers in order to keep pace with LSU. Garrett Nussmeier had some misses in the season-opening loss to USC, but his overall numbers are amazing, having completed 75 percent of his passes for with eight TDs and just one interception. South Carolina has talent deficiencies in many areas, but one bright spot is freshman edge rusher, Dylan Stewart, a five-star freshman who already has 2.5 sacks.

Pick: LSU wins 28-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

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• No. 24 Boston College at No. 6 Missouri (-16.5) (12:45 p.m., SEC Network) 

Missouri hasn't allowed a point through two cupcake games and has the best statistical defense in the FBS. That will be tested against Boston College, which averages 282.5 rushing yards per game and has an exciting quarterback in Thomas Castellanos. Mizzou will counter with Brady Cook, who will work the perimeter with Theo Wease and Luther Burden, who has been quiet through two games. The Tigers are 5-4 ATS at home since last season. This line has looked high from the start and this isn't your typical BC team.

Pick: Missouri wins 28-27 and FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

• No. 18 Notre Dame (-12.5) at Purdue (3:30 p.m., CBS) 

Notre Dame suffered a shocking Week 2 loss against NIU, which might cause bettors to jump on Purdue, coming off a bye to prepare after a flawless 49-0 victory against Indiana State in their opener. Incredibly, Riley Leonard has yet to throw a touchdown pass in two games for the Irish, and that is a major concern heading into a renewed rivalry on the road. The Irish, however, should bounce back here. They were 3-0 S/U after a loss last season, winning those contests by an average of 24 points per game. 

Pick: Notre Dame wins 30-16 and COVERS the spread. 

• No. 9 Oregon (-14) at Oregon State (3:30 p.m., Fox) 

The Civil war continues in this always exciting intrastate matchup. The Beavers have allowed 15 points in two games under first-year coach Trent Bray going into the largest spotlight game of the season. Oregon has been wildly inconsistent in the first two games on both sides of the ball. One thing that has been consistent however is OU's inability to run the ball in the first two games, averaging just 3 yards per carry. Dillon Gabriel can overcome that with big plays in the passing game. The Pac-12 breakup game figures to be very competitive in Corvallis, which will be rocking.

Pick: Oregon wins 35-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

• Ball State at No. 10 Miami (-36) (3:30 p.m., ACC Network) 

Ball State had an extra week to prepare for Miami, and it will be a steep challenge. The Hurricanes are operating at a high level with Heisman hopeful Cam Ward.  Miami also averages 5.2 yards per carry, and the defense has created five turnovers in two games. All that said, we think this line will drop a little bit before kickoff. Ball State quarterback Kadin Semonza can make just enough plays in the passing game, and the Cardinals are a candidate for a back-door cover. 

Pick: Miami wins 49-14 but FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

• Tulane at No. 15 Oklahoma (-13.5) (3:30 p.m., SEC Network) 

This line has ticked up a point from its opening. Oklahoma struggled to put away Houston in Week 2, but the defense continues to force turnovers. Tulane challenged Kansas State last week, too. The keys for the Sooners are that Jackson Arnold doesn't commit turnovers, and the rush defense allows just 1.8 yards per carry. It will be a little bit tougher for the Green Wave on the road here – especially if Oklahoma can force a few turnovers. 

Pick: Oklahoma wins 35-21 and COVERS the spread. 

• No. 12 Utah (-21.5) at Utah State (4:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network) 

Quarterback intrigue reigns supreme in this matchup. Cam Rising (hand) exited the Utes' victory against Baylor in Week 2, and the offense struggled without him. That status will impact this line. Utah State is coming off a 48-0 loss to USC. Bryson Barnes, the Utah transfer who replaced Rising following his injury in the 2023 Rose Bowl Game, is now the Aggies' quarterback. There are unknowns here, and the in-state rivalry factor is at work. These schools haven't met since 2015, and the last three meetings were decided by 10 points or less. 

MORE: Meet Isaac Wilson, Zach's brother and Utah QB

Pick: Utah wins 30-10 and FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

• No. 5 Ole Miss (-23) at Wake Forest (6:30 p.m., The CW) 

Lane Kiffin on the CW? That should be fun, right? The Rebels have poured on points against a FCS and Group of 5 school the last two weeks, and Jaxson Dart is averaging an incredible 14.7 yards per attempt. The Demon Deacons will face a tall task slowing down what could be the nation's best offense at the end of the season. Wake Forest quarterback Hank Bachmeier, a transfer from Boise State, will do his best to keep the Demon Deacons close. It's just going to be difficult to stop that Ole Miss offense for four quarters. 

Pick: Ole Miss wins 49-24 and COVERS the spread. 

• UTSA at No. 3 Texas (-34) (7 p.m., ESPN) 

Is this a trap-door game for Texas? The Longhorns have grown up, so no. UTSA also is coming off a surprising 49-10 loss at Texas State. Texas beat UTSA 41-20 in 2022, and this offense is operating at a high-efficiency level with Heisman Trophy contender Quinn Ewers. The Roadrunners have struggled to run the football at 2.5 yards per carry, but we still feel like Owen McCown will make a few plays in the passing game. This will be a tight cover. 

MORE: Breaking down Quinn Ewers performance against Michigan

Pick: Texas wins 49-14 and COVERS the spread. 

• No. 1 Georgia (-23.5) at Kentucky (7:30 p.m, ABC) 

Georgia has not allowed a TD through two games, and Kentucky is coming off a 31-6 loss to South Carolina. Kentucky quarterback Brock Vandagriff, a Georgia transfer, faces his former team and it might not go very well. Kirby Smart appears to have one of those national championship-caliber teams that is not going to let up in the second half of blowouts. They have won the last four meetings at Kentucky by an average of 10.2 points per game.

Pick: Georgia wins 35-10 and COVERS the spread. 

• Kent State at No. 7 Tennessee (-48) (7:45 p.m., SEC Network) 

The Golden Flashes are coming off a disappointing loss to St. Francis, and they are now seven-TD underdogs against Tennessee. The Volunteers average 60 points and 589 yards of total offense, and Nico Iamaleava and Dylan Sampson averages 8.0 yards per carry. Tennessee is 3-0 S/U against MAC schools under Josh Heupel, and they have won those games by an average of 46 points per game. This will be close on the spread and uncomfortable, but the Vols will pour it on at home. 

Pick: Tennessee wins 56-6 and COVERS the spread.