The top two teams in the nation have a chance to prove it in Week 11.
No. 2 Michigan is 9-0 has outscored opponents by an average of 34 points per game. Now, the Wolverines get a real test at No. 9 Penn State in a battle of Big Ten East heavyweights. That game will be at 12 p.m. ET on Fox.
No. 1 Georgia will be in prime-time at 7 p.m. against No. 1 Ole Miss in another matchup against a ranked SEC opponent. The Bulldogs are home again at Sanford Stadium. That game will be televised on ESPN.
Those games offer chances for all four teams to impress the College Football Playoff committee in the final stretch.
MORE: Bowl projections for 2023 postseason
There are two more matchups between teams ranked in the AP Top 25 in the 3:30 p.m. window. No. 13 Utah travels to No. 5 Washington in yet another solid Pac-12 matchup, and No. 14 Tennessee travels to No. 16 Missouri in a battle of two-loss teams.
A look at our track record in picks against the spread heading into Week 11. Week 10 was the best week of the season so far ATS.
- Straight up: 149-33 (15-6 in Week 10)
- ATS: 93-86-3 (14-7 in Week 10)
Here are our picks against the spread for Week 10.
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Week 11 Top 25 picks against the spread
Thursday, Nov. 9
- Virginia at No. 11 Louisville (-20) (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS at home this season and are continuing to build toward an ACC championship game appearance. The Cavaliers allow 180.3 rushing yards per game, and Louisville has rolled up 232.5 rushing yards per game the last two weeks against Duke and Virginia Tech. This is a huge line, but we'll trust the Cardinals to stay the course at home.
Pick: Louisville wins 38-17 and COVERS the spread.
Saturday, Nov. 11
- No. 2 Michigan (-5) at No. 9 Penn State (12 p.m., Fox)
The Wolverines finally get a test against a ranked team, and the Nittany Lions have one more chance to get in the Big Ten East race. Drew Allar (20 TDs, 1 INT) will need to take more chances against Michigan than he did against Ohio State, and the Wolverines will need more out of the running game on the road given they've averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry the last three weeks. J.J. McCarthy will come up clutch late in a tight Big Ten thriller that resembles the 2021 matchup.
Pick: Michigan wins 21-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
MORE: Big Ten East tiebreaker explained
- Texas Tech at No. 19 Kansas (-3.5) (12 p.m., FS1)
Kansas is 5-0 at home this season, and that's a short line considering the Red Raiders are 1-3 on the road. Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton is coming off his best game in a victory against TCU, but the Jayhawks should get that rushing attack going around Jason Bean at home. Kansas has covered the spread three of the last four weeks.
Pick: Kansas wins 28-23 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 8 Alabama (-11) at Kentucky (12 p.m., ESPN)
This line has already ticked up a half point; a nod to the fact Alabama has covered four of the last five weeks and is coming off 14-point wins against Tennessee and LSU. Is there a bit of a let-down factor at work? Kentucky recalibrated from back-to-back home losses by beating Mississippi State 24-3. The Wildcats are 6-2 ATS as a home underdog under Mark Stoops since 2019. Alabama hasn’t lost to Kentucky since 1997.
Pick: Alabama wins 35-17 and COVERS the spread.
- Tulsa at No. 20 Tulane (-22.5) (12 p.m., ESPN)
The Green Wave have had three straight one-score victories on double-digit spreads, a frustrating trend for bettors. Tulsa has lost four straight games and has four losses of 30 points or more this season. Tulane is due to break through, but the Golden Hurricane can slow the game down with a running game that averages 190.8 yards per game. Four of the last five meetings have been decided by one score.
Pick: Tulane wins 37-16 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- Old Dominion at No. 25 Liberty (-13.5) (1 p.m., ESPN+)
Liberty quarterback Kaidon Salter is a joy to watch. He has 1,959 passing yards with 23 TDs and three interceptions and 664 rushing yards and seven TDs. Old Dominion is 6-1 ATS as an underdog, and the Flames are 2-2 ATS when favored by double digits. Liberty won 38-24 last season. Identical score this time?
Pick: Liberty wins 38-24 and COVERS the spread.
- UConn at No. 21 James Madison (-26.5) (2 p.m., ESPN+)
UConn is coming off a 59-3 loss to Tennessee and it has been a nightmare season for the Huskies. UConn is 1-4 S/U against Group of 5 schools this year, and the worst loss was by 21 points. James Madison is 6-2 ATS against FBS schools, but they failed to cover the only time that number stretched to double digits. The Huskies will make enough plays to cover that large number.
Pick: James Madison wins 45-20 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 23 Arizona (-10) at Colorado (2 p.m., Pac-12 Network)
Arizona is the hottest team in the Pac-12 right now with three straight victories. Quarterback Noah Fifita has a 76.7% completion percentage the last four weeks. Sheduer Sanders is at 61.8% in the same stretch, and the Buffaloes are trying to avoid a four-game losing streak. Another double-digit loss would make it tough for Deion Sanders to reach a bowl game in his first season. Colorado is 4-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog.
Pick: Arizona wins 35-27 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- Miami at No. 4 Florida State (-15.5) (3:30 p.m, ABC)
Florida State hammered Miami 45-3 last year, and the Seminoles have a chance to win three straight in the series. The Hurricanes are 1-2 S/U on the road this season, but they are 2-1 ATS. Florida State’s running game continues to be inconsistent, but they have just two turnovers in their last six games.
Pick: Florida State wins 38-28 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 13 Utah at No. 5 Washington (-9) (3:30 p.m., Fox)
The line has dropped by a half-point, and the Utes will present the toughest defense Washington has faced to this point. Utah allows just 15.9 points per game. The Huskies are 1-4 ATS the last four weeks, and they will need to generate a running game behind Michael Penix Jr. These teams have not met since 2020.
Pick: Washington wins 37-31 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 15 Oklahoma State (-2) at UCF (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
Here is the tricky spread of the week. The Cowboys are hot – with five straight wins and covers behind a strong running game led by Ollie Gordon II. Oklahoma State’s star running back has six straight 100-yard games. UCF is fighting for bowl eligibility, and there is a risk for an emotional letdown for Oklahoma State. We’re still taking the better team.
Pick: Oklahoma State wins 28-20 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 14 Tennessee (Pick ‘em) at No. 16 Missouri (3:30 p.m., CBS)
This could be a fun shootout between a pair of two-loss teams. The Vols have had some rough shows on the road, but Joe Milton has completed 75% of his passes in the last three weeks. The Tigers have to shake off last week’s loss against Georgia. Missouri has allowed an average of 64 points in the last two losses to the Vols. This one will be much closer, and the fact it has dropped to a pick ‘em suggests anything goes.
Pick: Tennessee wins 35-31 and COVERS the spread.
- Stanford at No. 12 Oregon State (-21) (5:30 p.m. Pac-12 Network)
Stanford has improved under first-year coach Troy Taylor, and they gutted out a 10-7 victory against Washington State in Week 10. The Cardinal allow 124.2 rushing yards per game. The Beavers will be patient with DJ Uiagalelei and a methodical running game that averages 188 rushing yards per game. Oregon State has won three home games against FBS teams by an average of 14.3 points per game.
Pick: Oregon State wins 34-14 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 1 Georgia (-10.5) (7 p.m., ESPN)
This line is higher on a few other sportsbooks, and it’s the same old story. Georgia had slow starts against South Carolina, Auburn and Missouri, but it pulled away in the second half. The Bulldogs are just 2-6 ATS this season. This is a chance for Lane Kiffin to score a victory against a top-five team. The Rebels are 0-3 S/U in that situation under Kiffin, and they have lost those games by an average of 17.7 points per game.
Pick: Georgia wins 35-21 and COVERS the spread.
- West Virginia at No. 17 Oklahoma (-11.5) (7 p.m, Fox)
Oklahoma’s season went off the rails the last two weeks against Kansas and Oklahoma State, so this will be a test of fortitude. The Sooners are still in the mix for the Big 12 championship, however. West Virginia has averaged 39 points per game in its last two victories, and the line has dropped a point from its open. Will the Sooners vent their frustrations out on the Mountaineers here? Oklahoma is 3-1 ATS at home.
Pick: Oklahoma wins 39-22 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 7 Texas (-10) at TCU (7:30 p.m., ABC)
Texas survived a scare from Kansas State, and now the Longhorns must pass a road test at TCU. The Horned Frogs have a -7 turnover ratio in their last four games, and they have generated just two turnovers in that stretch. That’s good news for Maalik Murphy, who will be making his first road start. Look for the Longhorns to keep rolling toward a Big 12 championship.
Pick: Texas wins 34-20 and COVERS the spread.
- Florida at No. 18 LSU (-13.5) (7:30 p.m., SEC Network)
Jayden Daniels is in concussion protocol, so we might re-evaluate this line later in the week. If Daniels plays, then LSU’s offense will produce against a Florida defense that has allowed an average of 41.5 points per game. In the last 10 meetings, the margin of victory has been 14 points or less. Look for Florida to hang around against a LSU defense that continues to have trouble on third down.
Pick: LSU wins 38-30 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- Michigan State at No. 3 Ohio State (-30.5) (7:30 p.m., Peacock)
The Buckeyes are huge favorites at home against the Spartans. Under Ryan Day, Ohio State is 4-0 S/U against Michigan State and has won those games by an average of 35.5 points per game. The Spartans forced three turnovers in a 20-17 upset against Nebraska last week.This is a huge line for the Buckeyes, who have covered four of the last five weeks.
Pick: Ohio State wins 40-10 and but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- Duke at No. 24 North Carolina (-11.5) (8 p.m., ACC Network)
Riley Leonard (toe) is still out for the Blue Devils. Duke has averaged just 104.3 passing yards per game the last few weeks, and that will not be enough against a high-powered North Carolina offense that leads the ACC with 518.8 yards per game. The Blue Devils have failed to cover as an underdog in their last three losses.
Pick: North Carolina wins 33-21 and COVERS the spread.
- USC at No. 6 Oregon (-14.5) (10:30 p.m., Fox)
These teams have not met since the 2020 Pac-12 championship game. USC fired defensive coordinator Alex Grinch after the 52-42 loss against Washington, and that might offer a spark this week. Oregon averages 49.5 points per game at home this season, and Bo Nix has entered the Heisman Trophy chat. Caleb Williams should respond here, and USC could be dangerous as a spoiler. That over (73.5) is a monster.
Pick: Oregon wins 42-28 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
