Week 1 features a top-10 showdown between No. 5 LSU and No. 8 Florida State – the first large piece in the College Football Playoff puzzle for 2023.
The first week of the season has 19 matchups involving FBS teams ranked in the top 25. Five ranked teams – including No. 1 Georgia – are playing FCS teams. There are more than enough exciting matchups on the schedule.
No. 14 Utah – the two-time Pac-12 champions – welcomes Florida on Thursday night. Saturday features Deion Sanders' debut at Colorado against No. 17 TCU at noon and prime-time matchups between West Virginia and No. 7 Penn State and No. 21 North Carolina and South Carolina. It all builds toward a Sunday showdown between the Tigers and Seminoles – a rematch from last year's 24-23 thriller. Both teams have come a long way in one season.
In Week 0, we went 5-2 S/U and 4-3 ATS. That included a 2-0 ATS and 2-0 S/U record in Top 25 games. A look at this week's picks:
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Thursday, Sept. 1
- Florida at No. 14 Utah (-4.5) (8 p.m., ESPN)
Utah's quarterback situation is in flux with Cam Rising out, but the Utes are 21-1 S/U and 14-8 ATS at home the last four seasons. It's going to be a hostile atmosphere for a Florida team with a lot of question marks. How will Wisconsin transfer Graham Mertz handle his first start with the Gators? Remember, Florida won a 29-26 thriller last season. Utah returns the favor in a Thursday night thriller, but you have to take the Gators to cover the spread.
Pick: Utah wins 28-25 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
MORE: SN's 2023 Preseason All-America Team
Saturday, Sept. 3
- East Carolina at No. 2 Michigan (-36.5) (12 p.m., Peacock)
This is a tough call. Michigan is 3-3 ATS in non-conference regular season games the last two seasons, but they've won those six games by an average of 44 points per game. The Pirates were tied with USC for the fewest turnovers in the FBS last season with seven. Can they maintain that with new quarterback Mason Garcia in the Big House against a team that won't have Jim Harbaugh on the sideline?
Pick: Michigan wins 45-14 but FAILS TO COVER the spread
- Virginia vs. No. 12 Tennessee at Nashville (-28) (12 p.m., ABC)
Let the Joe Milton era begin. Tennessee is a heavy favorite against the Cavaliers – who finished 3-7 last season and are counting on Monmouth transfer quarterback Tony Muskett to get the offense going. Virginia averaged just 17 points per game last season. That won't cut it once the Vols are clicking.
Pick: Tennessee wins 43-16 and FAILS TO COVER the spread
- Colorado at No. 17 TCU (-21) (12 p.m., Fox)
Bettors might lean on Deion Sanders given the high-profile debut. Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter will make a few big plays, and TCU does have to break in a new quarterback in Chandler Morris and lost eight key players to the NFL. We just don't think the Buffaloes will be able to keep up for four quarters.
Pick: TCU wins 42-24 and FAILS TO COVER the spread
- Arkansas State at No. 20 Oklahoma (-35.5) (12 p.m., ESPN)
Oklahoma is looking for a bounce-back season under Brent Venables, and veteran quarterback Dillon Gabriel is healthy. Arkansas State is 6-2 ATS in non-conference games under third-year coach Butch Jones, and this is their high-profile game. Look for the Sooners to pile it on in the second half.
Pick: Oklahoma wins 56-17 and COVERS the spread
- Utah State at No. 25 Iowa (-25.5) (12 p.m., FS1)
Cade McNamara suffered a leg injury during fall camp, and his status will be monitored throughout the week. The Hawkeyes are 7–7 ATS as a home favorite the last three seasons. Utah State quarterback Cooper Legas lost his top rusher and receiver. Iowa will clamp down on the Aggies, but that still looks like too many points. Iowa scored more than 30 points one time last season.
Pick: Iowa wins 32-10 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 3 Ohio State (-29.5) at Indiana (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Indiana hasn't beat Ohio State since 1988 – a 27-game losing streak that is longest between Big Ten conference opponents. The Hoosiers have lost the last seven meetings by an average of 29.8 points per game – which means the line is right on point. How long will it take for Ohio State quarterbacks Kyle McCord and Devin Brown – yes, both will play – to settle in at Bloomington? Look for the Buckeyes to pull away in the second half.
Pick: Ohio State wins 52-20 and COVERS the spread.
- Rice at No. 11 Texas (-35) (3:30 p.m., Fox)
Is that him? Yep, that's JT Daniels – who has played for USC, Georgia and West Virginia. He's now the quarterback for Rice, and the Owls were 5-4 ATS as an underdog last season. How much does Texas pour it on against an in-state opponent ahead of the Week 2 showdown against Alabama? Texas covered in five of their first six games last year, and Rice had four losses by 30 or more points. Still, Daniels could lead a few TD drives against the Longhorns' defense.
Pick: Texas wins 54-17 and COVERS the spread.
- Boise State at No. 10 Washington (-14.5) (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Washington is a College Football Playoff sleeper, but Boise State is never an easy opener. Taylen Green is an efficient quarterback, and George Holani returns after rushing for 1,157 yards and 10 TDs last season. The Broncos have won five of their last eight against Pac-12 opponents. Michael Penix will find enough success in the air to break that trends. Is this a trap to see this much value in Boise State?
Pick: Washington wins 37-27 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.
CONFERENCE PREVIEWS: SEC | Big Ten | ACC | Pac-12 | Big 12
- Buffalo at No. 19 Wisconsin (-27.5) (3:30 p.m., FS1)
Wisconsin begins a new chapter with Luke Fickell, and it will be interesting to see what the kinks are with SMU transfer quarterback Tanner Mordecai in new offensive coordinator Phil Longo's offense. Wisconsin hasn't lost to a MAC school since 1988 and they have won their last six regular-season games against MAC opponents by an incredible 48.2 points per game. How much will Wisconsin pour it on?
Pick: Wisconsin wins 43-10 and COVERS the spread.
- Nevada at No. 6 USC (-38.5) (6:30 p.m., Pac-12 Network)
It's another huge spread or the Trojans, who were 30.5-point favorites in the opener against San Jose State. This could be a similar game. Nevada will have an all-transfer backfield with Colorado transfer quarterback Brendon Lewis and former Oregon running back Sean Dollars. The Wolfpack will run into too many problems too fast.
Pick: USC wins 56-13 and COVERS the spread.
- New Mexico at No. 23 Texas A&M (-38.5) (7 p.m., ESPN)
So, what will the Aggies offense look like under new coordinator Bobby Petrino? Conner Weigman takes over at quarterback, and Jimbo Fisher is going to be out to prove that this offense is different. Texas A&M didn't score 40 points in a game last season. Watch that change against a New Mexico team entering Year 4 with Billy Gonzales.
Pick: Texas A&M wins 45-7 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- Middle Tennessee State at No. 4 Alabama (-39.5) (7:30 p.m., SEC Network)
Alabama is renowned for blasting teams in the opener regardless of program prestige, and the Blue Raiders are in the way this time. The Crimson Tide will likely play multiple quarterbacks. Middle Tennessee won eight games last season, but veteran coach Rick Stockstill is breaking in a new quarterback in Nicholas Vattiato.
Pick: Alabama wins 55-10 and COVERS the spread.
- West Virginia at No. 7 Penn State (-20.5) (7:30 p.m., NBC)
There are high hopes around Penn State, which returns a talented roster and will show off new quarterback Drew Allar in prime time. The Mountaineers are in a gotta-have-it-season under Neal Brown. West Virginia had just one loss by more than 20 points last season. Penn State will control the game, and they will play up like they did against Pitt in last year's opener. The Nittany Lions were 3-2-1 ATS as a home favorite last season, which signifies this could be right on the line if West Virginia can survive the first punch.
Pick: Penn State wins 37-19 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 21 North Carolina (-2.5) vs. South Carolina (7:30 p.m., ABC)
Best matchup of the day? It's Drake Maye and Spencer Rattler in a quarterback matchup that NFL scouts will have their eyes on. The Gamecocks were one of the hottest teams in the FBS last season. The Tar Heels had a November slide. South Carolina has won four of the last five in this series, too. This could be a virtual pick ‘em by kickoff. We'll take the Gamecocks and maybe regret it later if Maye pulls off some late-game heroics.
Pick: South Carolina wins 41-38 in an UPSET.
- South Alabama at No. 24 Tulane (-6.5) (8 p.m., ESPNU)
We wish this game had a hook because it would make it that much easier to go with South Alabama. Kane Wommack has flipped this roster into a 10-win team in a hurry, and Carter Bradley returns at quarterback. Michael Pratt is back for the Green Wave, too, and this could turn out to be one of the best games of the night.
Pick: Tulane wins 32-27 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Sunday, Sept. 4
- No. 18 Oregon State (-17) at San Jose State (3 p.m., CBS)
The Spartans will be at home and have a game under their belt. The Beavers have high expectations around quarterback Clemson transfer quarterback DJ Uiagalelei. The Beavers are a program on the rise, but they also beat Fresno State and Boise State by an average of 10 points per game. This isn't going to be a blowout.
Pick: Oregon State wins 35-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 5 LSU (-2.5) vs. No. 8 Florida State (7:30 p.m., ABC)
What a game this should be. Florida State won last year, and this one is closer to home in Orlando. Jayden Daniels and Jordan Travis are Heisman Trophy sleepers. The over/under has dropped a point to 57.5. Last year's game was mostly even statistically – but the Tigers committed one more turnover. That could be the difference again. LSU's front seven makes the difference late.
Pick: LSU wins 32-29 and COVERS the spread
Monday, Sept. 5
- No. 9 Clemson (-13) at Duke (8 p.m., ESPN)
Duke had an amazing first season under first-year coach Mike Elko. The Blue Devils had four losses by eight points or less. Duke also didn't play a ranked team. Look for Clemson to make a Labor Day statement that they are still the team to beat in the ACC. The Tigers hold off a back-door cover late, too.
Pick: Clemson wins 38-20 and COVERS the spread
