Every week we see the college football lines drift either too high or too low, so we wait until we find the value in those soft spots on the college football odds board. Let’s check out those weak numbers below and keep cashing tickets.
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Illinois (+7.5 to +10) at Purdue
Saturday, Oct. 26, noon ET
It’s no wonder the college football odds at many of the best online sportsbooks have spiked on Purdue because it’s a reaction to the stunning win Illinois pulled last week when they defeated Wisconsin as a 29-point road underdog.
The conventional wisdom is that the Illini will still be basking in the afterglow of one of the biggest upsets of the season, and against a conference rival no less, which will mean a big letdown against Purdue this week, a team they have lost to in four of their last five meetings. But let’s not forget the Boilermakers have not exactly been a house on fire recently, having dropped four of their last five and averaging just 22.2 points per game over that span.
We thought the original opener of Purdue -7.5 gave us a bit of value with Illinois but now getting 10.5 makes the Illini a must-bet.
Final score: Purdue 31, Illinois 27
Free pick: Illinois to cover +10 (-105)
Oklahoma State (+8.5 to +10.5) at Iowa State
Saturday, Oct. 26, 3:30 p.m. ET
Whenever we see the lines cross onto, or through critical numbers, we are always a bit tempted to take a bite of that apple. In college and pro football those numbers are 3, 4, 6, 7 and if we string it out a bit further, the number 10 is in play as well because it equals a touchdown (plus the extra point) and a field goal.
In this case, we see the line has jumped a full two points and has crossed the 10 to where it now sits at Oklahoma State +10.5, which at the very least intrigues us. But when you factor in that the Cowboys have covered three of four on the road and Iowa State could very well be caught looking ahead to the following week’s huge game against No. 6 Oklahoma, then there is definite value in this inflated number. Take the points and back Okie State in your college football picks.
Final score: Iowa State 34, Oklahoma State 30
Free pick: Oklahoma State to cover +10 ½ (-105)
California (+17.5 to +21.5) at Utah
Saturday, Oct. 26, 10 p.m. ET
Before we discuss the line jump from 17 ½ to 21 ½, it’s best if we review the total in this game, or what is called the over/under in the public’s vernacular. Here we have a 21.5-point favorite but the total sits at about 37 at most of the major offshores.
Huh? Talk about your correlated parlays. We get the fact that both teams boast stingy defenses but when one side is getting north of three touchdowns and the total reflects barely more than five being scored in the entire game, then that means one thing — value. Don’t let this gem slip by and bet the Golden Bears +21.5 to hang in there and get the cover.
Final score: Utah 27, California 13
Free pick: California to cover +21 ½ (-109)