The college football slate is packed again this week but we’ve isolated a few games where the lines are soft and the value is high. Let’s lock, load, and cash this Saturday.
MORE: Get the latest NCAA odds & betting advice at Sportsbook Review
South Florida vs. Navy
Saturday, Oct. 19, 3:30 p.m. ET | Navy -11.5 to -14
Aside from the alumni, you won’t hear many buzzing about South Florida’s football team and their big game at Navy this weekend. However, our mission is not to scout out the best TV games or household names, what we’re after is solid value on a team that is getting more, or laying less points than it should from the college football oddsmakers.
And here we have such a matchup as the college football odds at many of the best online sportsbooks opened at Navy -11 ½ but that number has steadily risen to where the Midshipmen are now laying 14 pretty much across the board. That bump caused us to sit up and take notice because the South Florida Bulls are now getting a two-touchdown head start against a team in which they should be competitive.
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Here we have two teams on an upward trajectory with the Bulls winning three of their last four while the Midshipmen are doing a complete 180 from last seasons’ 3-10 record, vaulting to a surprising 4-1 mark to begin the 2019 campaign. Naturally, the Middies are turning heads and their offense is keeping those heads spinning, averaging 37.3 points per game, courtesy of the top-ranked rushing attack in the nation.
Therefore, we’re not stunned to see this line drift north but the Bulls’ offense is starting to jell after a rough start and have put an average of 37.75 PPG over their last four. The key to whether or not South Florida will be able to keep within the 14-point margin will depend entirely on how well they contain Navy’s rushing attack. The Bulls’ run-stop unit is in the middle of the pack but we believe their offense is capable of scoring on a decent, although unspectacular, Navy defense. The Middies will continue their winning ways but South Florida will hang tough enough to get the cover.
Final score: Navy 34, South Florida 24
Free pick: South Florida to cover +14 (-103)
Michigan vs. Penn State
Saturday, Oct. 19, 7:30 p.m. ET | -7 ½ to -9 ½
Unlike the previous matchup, this Big Ten clash between the 5-1 Michigan Wolverines and the undefeated Penn State Nittany Lions are getting boatloads of action from the betting public. And based on the way this line is trending it appears the masses, aka squares, love a home favorite-who knew?! Well, anyone who has been around sports betting for even a little while knows that home chalk, and over the posted total, is the public’s recipe for distress.
OK, so Penn State is loaded this season with a relentless defense, currently ranked second in the nation in points allowed, surrendering a paltry 8.2 per game, while ranked third in rushing yards allowed. Therefore, it’s unlikely Michigan will get anywhere with their running game but striking through the air is a distinct possibility against a Penn State secondary susceptible to getting caught out of position.
Michigan owns a stout defense as well and if this game resembles Penn State’s 17-12 win over Iowa last week then the 9 ½ point cushion we’re now getting with the Wolverines, up two full points from the opener of 7 ½, gives us plenty of value and a very good reason to include Michigan in our college football picks.
Final score: Penn State 24, Michigan 17
Free pick: Michigan to cover +9.5 (-110)