The 2023 college football polls are out.
The Associated Press Preseason Top 25 and USA Today Sports UFCA Coaches Poll turned out similar results. The only difference in the top seven is the polls have Alabama and Ohio State flipped at No. 3 and No. 4.
This is the portion of the season where we still haven't seen anything on the field, so we still have time to buy and sell teams for the upcoming season.
Think about that process. Which teams are being hyped the most? That's subjective, but that's the trick to this exercise. Take Alabama and Penn State, for example. Both teams finished 11-2 and won a New Year's Day Six bowl last season. Yet one is being hyped considerably more than the other heading into 2023. Which one should you buy? Which one is the sell?
That was part of our decision-making process for this exercise. All of these teams will be competitive. Which ones will be playing on conference championship weekend? That influenced our choices.
Which teams in the AP Top 25 are we buying? Which ones are we selling? We picked three of each – and one team we can't go in on just yet.
Buy
No. 4 Alabama
So many college football fans are so ready to pronounce the Alabama dynasty dead that we might be a little too off the Crimson Tide this season. All of this stems from the quarterback question and the fact the last four starters — Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones and Bryce Young – have taken their games to the NFL. It's easy to forget Greg McElroy, A.J. McCarron and Jake Coker combined for four national championships with Nick Saban. It's not just about the quarterback – unless you're trying to win at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Alabama is 84-5 at home since 2010 – and three of those losses were to quarterbacks who won the Heisman Trophy in Cam Newton (2010), Johnny Manziel (2012) and Joe Burrow (2019). Alabama's three toughest games outside of the Iron Bowl – No. 11 Texas, No. 12 Tennessee and No. 5 LSU – are at home. Saban is pretty good in revenge games, too. It's our belief Alabama will win the SEC West and get a shot at No. 1 Georgia in the SEC championship game. Saban is 3-0 against the Bulldogs in that game.
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No. 11 Texas
We've been sending "Horns Up" signals all summer. Texas has the most talent in the Big 12 and a potential first-round pick in quarterback Quinn Ewers. Steve Sarkisian has done an excellent job of keeping the veterans who were there when he arrived and recruiting blue-chip talent – especially around a 2023 class that features Arch Manning. Yeah, yeah, but we've heard this speech how many times? Texas has just to start winning the one-score games. Sarkisian is 4-10 in those games the last two seasons. Alabama is on the schedule, too. We're buying both teams from that Week 2 showdown. If Texas wins, the hype will be at a level not seen since 2005. Even if they lose, we think the Longhorns win the Big 12 farewell tour and stay in the CFP race. This is not an unreasonable take.
No. 19 Wisconsin
This is a slam-dunk long-term investment. Luke Fickell should be able to replicate the job he did at Cincinnati with more resources, and that's going to make the Badgers a regular in the 12-team College Football Playoff. We're also good with saying the Badgers will win the Big Ten West this season. We think the favorable early-season schedule will allow the changes under new offensive coordinator Phil Longo to take. Tanner Mordecai is a veteran presence at quarterback, and Braelon Allen will still get more than enough work. The Badgers have two ranked teams on the schedule in No. 25 Iowa and No. 3 Ohio State, and both of their games are at Camp Randall Stadium. That matchup against the Buckeyes is on Oct. 28 – and could be the first of two if Wisconsin reclaims the Big Ten West title. They will.
Sell
No. 7 Penn State
Everybody is buying. Penn State has its most talented roster under James Franklin – one that is conjuring up the excitement levels they felt in Happy Valley in 1994 and 1999. Drew Allar is the five-star quarterback they've been waiting on, Nick Singleton could lead the Big Ten in rushing and there is an NFL talent at every position group. We're not saying the Nittany Lions aren't going to win at least 10 games. They are. Will they get the job done against No. 2 Michigan and No. 3 Ohio State? The Wolverines and Buckeyes outscored the Nittany Lions in the second half by a combined total of 56-20 in those two games last year. Can Penn State beat Ohio State at The Shoe for the first time since 2011? Will they slow down a Michigan rushing attack that totaled 418 yards in that game last year?
No. 14 Utah
This is tough because it's an annual rite to undervalue the Utes — who have won the last two Pac-12 championships. Cam Rising is still rehabbing an ACL injury, and Utah coach Kyle Whittingham admitted to The Salt Lake Tribune on Aug. 10, "The quarterback situation is still in flux." That's not reassuring when you look at a tricky non-conference schedule that has Florida and Baylor the first two games. The Utes also have road trips to No. 18 Oregon State, No. 6 USC and No. 10 Washington and they also draw No. 15 Oregon at home. Utah does play its future Big 12 conference mates in Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado – which should keep them in the Pac-12 race – but it's easier to buy into the other ranked teams in the conference. That's why the Utes might have a rough farewell tour in the Pac-12.
No. 17 TCU
The Horned Frogs' stock was never higher after beating Michigan 51-45 in the Fiesta Bowl, but the 65-7 loss to Georgia was a reality check. This is going to look foolish if Sonny Dykes leads TCU to a 7-0 start – which is entirely possible when you look at the schedule. But it's not easy for a program in this weight class to lose eight difference-makers to the NFL Draft. That's what happened last season. Chandler Morris – who beat out Max Duggan in fall camp last season – has a tough act to follow. So do the Horned Frogs – who were 6-1 in one-score games last season. The road trip to No. 16 Kansas State on Oct. 21 precedes a brutal November against Texas Tech, No. 11 Texas, Baylor and No. 20 Oklahoma. If Dykes leads TCU through that again, he might be a two-time SN Coach of the Year.
Hold
No. 8 Florida State
There is no question Florida State is loaded. Quarterback Jordan Travis is a Heisman Trophy candidate. The running game is strong with Trey Benson. Johnny Wilson and Michigan State transfer Keon Coleman are great on the outside, and the defense features first-round talent starting with Jared Verse. Why wouldn't you buy right now? That September schedule features No. 5 LSU in the opener and a road trip to No. 9 Clemson. If you want to buy, then you have to assume that the Seminoles get at least a split in those games to have a shot at a College Football Playoff berth. Maybe wait and see after that opener against a LSU team with almost the same portfolio?
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