One of the most popular preseason college football bets offered by sportsbooks are team win totals. It gives us a glimpse at how oddsmakers are viewing a team for the upcoming season, and it gives us the opportunity to bet whether we believe a team will go over or under that number.
To help you find the most value and make the best bets possible, BetQL's college football model simulated every game of the upcoming 2022 season 10,000 times and identified a few teams that are expected to go over (and under) their win totals. Let’s examine some of the biggest differences between BetQL’s simulation and what the sportsbooks are listing.
BetQL subscribers get access to all of the model’s college football picks with star ratings for every game. Join BetQL for free and see all of our best bets across all sports!
MORE BETQL: Best value bets by conference
College football best bets 2022: Top OVER picks for season win totals
By Matt Horner
Cincinnati Bearcats (O/U 9 wins; BetQL projection: 11.5)
This is one of BetQL’s biggest differences from sportsbooks’ lines at 2.5 games. The oddsmakers clearly think that the Bearcats will be taking a step back after making the college football playoff last season, and that is somewhat warranted.
They lost their star quarterback Desmond Ridder and corners Sauce Gardner and Coby Bryant to the NFL, but this team still has all the tools to compete. Saying that they will win just nine games might be a stretch, though, according to BetQL simulations.
Sure, they may not go undefeated again, but there is one thing we can count on from the Bearcats: An excellent game plan set forward by head coach Luke Fickell. He could have gone to the NFL, but he stayed and he has created a powerhouse in Cincy that is built to have staying power. There’s still a ton of talent, the schedule isn’t that bad, and we believe that the Bearcats will still have a great season, so taking them to go OVER nine wins is a smart play.
Charlotte 49ers (O/U 4.5 wins; BetQL projection: 7)
BetQL’s simulations also like Charlotte to really exceed expectations in 2022 after going 5-7 (3-5 in Conference USA) last season. A bowl game was well within reach last year, but the defense crumbled over a three-game losing streak to close out the season. This Charlotte team has experience, as eight offensive starters will return, including senior quarterback Chris Reynolds (30 total touchdowns, nine interceptions, 2,680 passing yards) and all three of his starting wideouts in Grant DuBose, Victor Tucker, and Elijah Spencer.
Conference USA also just got a lot easier after the recent shakeups. While the 49ers are still trying to find the consistency needed to be a bigger factor in Conference USA, this could finally be the year that they put some things together and make their first bowl game since 2019, as our simulations predict. Taking them to get at least five wins isn’t a stretch.
SMU Mustangs (O/U 4.5 wins; BetQL projection: 7)
SMU’s Rhett Lashlee will take the leap from an interesting offensive coordinator to first-time head coach. He was the SMU offensive coordinator in 2018 and '19 before taking his talents to Miami, and now it’s his job to take this Mustangs program up a level. The BetQL sims believe he can do so, with this being another 2.5-game difference from the line.
The Mustangs went 8-4 last year but finished just sixth in the AAC (4-4) after finishing fifth the year before in the division-less format. The winning seasons have been there, but SMU has struggled to break through as a legit powerhouse. The win total is set at just 4.5 games, and this team should be good enough to exceed that. The toughest games they have this year are all at home, the roster is full of experience, and Lashlee could take this program to the next level.
RELATED: Get ready for Week 0 with BetQL’s college football hub!
College football best bets 2022: Top UNDER picks for season win totals
Utah Utes (O/U 8.5 wins; BetQL projection: 6.5)
The Utes continue to put together great lines, great defenses, and great running games year after year under Kyle Whittingham. However, the BetQL simulations predict a small step back, projecting Utah to fall well short of its 8.5 win total -- and that’s something bettors could take advantage of heading into the 2022 season. This is obviously a strong program that has plenty of talent, but the Utes will have a gauntlet to go through. USC should be strong under new head coach Lincoln Riley, and Oregon is also primed to be a dangerous contender this season, so the Utes will have plenty of tough tests in the Pac-12, not to mention the season opener at Florida.
While Utah remains strong, BetQL thinks that asking the Utes to win nine games again is a stretch, making the UNDER a strong play here.
Florida State Seminoles (O/U 6.5 wins; BetQL projection: 4.5)
The last half-decade has been a total disaster for Florida State. From 1977-2017, the Seminoles didn’t have a single losing season. Zero. They have had four straight losing seasons now, and the BetQL model is projecting a fifth straight with FSU going well UNDER 6.5 wins. There have been some signs recently that the Seminoles could be turning things around soon, though. There’s experience returning, the talent level is getting better, and head coach Mike Norvell and the coaching staff have had a few years to settle in. The problem is that FSU simply isn’t talented enough yet to be a real contender in the ACC or even for a bowl game at this point.
There aren’t enough sure-thing wins on their schedule, which ranks as fairly difficult. Some of their toughest matchups include a home game against LSU, road game at Louisville, at N.C. State, vs. Clemson, vs. Georgia Tech. at Miami, and against Florida at home to close out the regular season. The ‘Noles will have a hard time getting to seven wins, and BetQL is betting against that happening.
MORE BETQL: Best value bets by conference
Kansas State Wildcats (O/U 6.5 wins; BetQL projection: 4)
There might not be a program that is more predictable than Kansas State. The first three years under Chris Klieman have been decent for a program that’s used to being just decent. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, they won’t be anything more than painfully average until they find some talent that can push them past that bar.
After going 8-5 overall and 4-5 in the Big 12 last season, BetQL projects Kansas State to take a step back with the close wins from last year turning into losses. BetQL is projecting just four wins for K-State, well under the 6.5 win total, making the UNDER look like a valuable bet here.
BetQL subscribers get access to all of the model’s college football picks with star ratings for every game. Join BetQL for free and see all of our best bets across all sports!