Sporting News released its 2019 College Football Playoff predictions last week, and it comes as no surprise that we picked another Alabama-Clemson matchup in the championship game on Jan. 13 in New Orleans.
Can anybody break up the Alabama-Clemson monopoly at the top of college football? Throughout the offseason, Sporting News will take a closer look at some of the programs from our post-spring top 25 best suited to pull it off.
MORE: Sizing up Georgia's chances to break up Bama-Clemson
Today, we'll take a closer look at the team that just missed the College Football Playoff the last two seasons. Ohio State is ranked No. 5 in SN's top 25 rankings. The Buckeyes have a new quarterback in Justin Fields, a new coach in Ryan Day and the same old Buckeyes standard. How could the two-time defending Big Ten champions shake up the Playoff picture?
Can Ohio State take over for the Tigers or the Tide? A closer look:
Reasons Ohio State can break up Bama-Clemson
The QB-friendly offense
Day brought a pass-first attitude to the Buckeyes' offense last season as the offensive coordinator, and that led to a record-setting season for Heisman Trophy finalist Dwayne Haskins. He set Big Ten single-season records in passing yards (4,831) and touchdowns (50). Day's scheme is a big reason why Fields opted to transfer from Georgia. The Buckeyes' quarterback-friendly system is guaranteed to put up big-time yardage and points.
That's not going to stop under new offensive coordinator Mike Yurich, who comes from Oklahoma State. Fields is surrounded by some big-time talent, too. The receivers are deep again, and freshman Garrett Wilson should break in.
The Buckeyes might look like a Big 12 offense, and it will continue to work in the Big Ten because they have the most talent.
More J.K. Dobbins
Dobbins — who ranks as SN's No. 4 running back ahead of the 2019 season — enjoyed a breakout season as a freshman, but was in a time-share with Mike Weber last season that led to a dip in production.
| Attempts | Yards | Avg. | TDs |
| 230 | 1053 | 4.6 | 10 |
| 194 | 1403 | 7.2 | 7 |
Dobbins will be the lead back this season, and with Fields (a better runner than Haskins was), there should be more room to run on zone-read plays. Perhaps that yards-per-carry average meets the middle of 4.6 and 7.2. If so, Dobbins could win the Doak Walker Award.
Ohio State should know this by now, too. In its three losses the last two seasons, Dobbins averaged 10 carries for 49 yards.
Better defense
Ohio State did not have a national championship defense last season. The Buckeyes allowed 404 yards and 25.5 points per game. That included five games with 30 points or more. Alabama and Clemson allowed 30 points or more in four games combined.
So there's work to do on that side of the ball, and new co-defensive coordinators Greg Mattison — hired away from Michigan — and Jeff Hafley — an NFL assistant since 2012 — are tasked with that turning the unit around.
The defensive line is stacked with Chase Young, Robert Landers and incoming freshman Zach Harrison. The back seven must improve around the linebackers and secondary. Jeffrey Okudah could develop into the next first-round cornerback.
This unit should be improved enough to compete for a Playoff berth.
MORE: Ohio State 2019 lookahead
Reasons Ohio State won't break up Bama-Clemson
The offensive line needs to be dominant, and that might be a year away from happening. The defense also has a lot to prove.
Ohio State needs to play like a national championship contender every week. That didn't happen last season, despite the strong finish against Michigan, Northwestern and Washington. Blowout road losses at Iowa and Purdue kept the Buckeyes from making the Playoff the last two seasons, respectively.
That extra crossover game is a challenge, and Ohio State travels to Nebraska and Northwestern and draws Wisconsin at home.
Coach factor
Day held the Buckeyes together during Urban Meyer's three-game suspension last season and offered hints for how the new tenure might unfold in Columbus. Don't confuse Day's sunny disposition for a lack of competitive edge, however. He has recruited well and will be aggressive on both sides.
He will be measured against Meyer in the big games. Meyer was 7-0 against Michigan. He finished 23-6 against top-25 teams and 12-5 against top-10 opponents, including going 9-2 the last three seasons.
Day's first month on the job features a negotiable schedule before the first big spot at Nebraska on Sept. 28. The season also ends with back-to-back games against Penn State and Michigan. Day will have several chances to prove it on the big stage.
That’s just to get a shot at Clemson or Alabama.
MORE: Fields eyes big picture after giving OSU a spring to remember
Stat that matters
Ohio State is one of just four FBS schools that have averaged more than 40 points per game the last two seasons. Oklahoma, UCF and Memphis are the others.
The Sooners have averaged 40 or more each of the last three seasons, and the Buckeyes were close in 2016 at 39.4 points per game.
Ohio State and Oklahoma have jostled for Playoff positioning behind Alabama and Clemson the last three seasons, and the Buckeyes were the one left out each of the last two years. Part of the reason the Sooners had the drop was because of an offense that lead the FBS with 48.4 points per game.
Ohio State must keep this average in the 40s — even in the Big Ten — if it wants to stay in the Playoff discussion.
Can Ohio State break up Alabama-Clemson?
Three FBS programs have won more than 60 games since the College Football Playoff began in 2014. Alabama (67-6), Clemson (65-7) and Ohio State (62-7) have the three best records and have combined for all five CFP championships.
The Buckeyes beat Alabama 42-35 in 2014 and lost 31-0 to Clemson in 2016. They have not had the chance to get back since because of those ill-fated losses to Iowa and Purdue the last two seasons. If Ohio State made the Playoff, then that would mean the transition to Day worked out without too many hitches, and that the offense is playing at a level that could be competitive against the Tide and Tigers.
The Buckeyes need to get back to that point first.
The good news? Sporting News projects Ohio State and Alabama in the College Football Playoff at the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl.
