Big Ten predictions 2019: Odds, conference picks, sleepers, big games, Heisman hopefuls and more

Bill Bender

Big Ten predictions 2019: Odds, conference picks, sleepers, big games, Heisman hopefuls and more image

Urban Meyer is gone after leading Ohio State to three Big Ten championships in seven seasons. The Buckeyes have won the conference title the last two years, just missing the College Football Playoff.

That’s the powerhouse Ryan Day inherits in Columbus, and the bar remains the same.

Can anybody dethrone the Buckeyes? Michigan is still looking for its first Big Ten championship since 2004, and first victory against the Buckeyes under fifth-year coach Jim Harbaugh. Michigan State and Penn State are in the mix in the Big Ten East. The West features six teams that think they can win the division, including Nebraska with second-year coach Scott Frost.

MORE: Ranking Big Ten coaches for 2019 season

Will the Big Ten championship still run through Ohio State? A look at Sporting News’ Big Ten predictions for 2019:

Odds to win 2019 Big Ten championship

Las Vegas has tabbed Ohio State the favorite to win the Big Ten in 2019, even in the Buckeyes' first year under Day. Michigan comes in with the second-highest odds in the conference, suggesting "The Game" in Ann Arbor will be all the more important in November. Here are the full odds to win the 2019 Big Ten championship, courtesy of Bovada:

Ohio State +125
Michigan +215
Nebraska+1000
Penn State +1200
Michigan State +1300
Wisconsin +1600
Minnesota +2500
Northwestern +2800
Iowa +3500
Purdue +3500
Indiana +12500
Maryland +15000
Illinois +22500
Rutgers +50000

Big Ten West predictions

1. Wisconsin
2. Nebraska
3. Northwestern
4. Iowa
5. Purdue
6. Minnesota
7. Illinois

We know Wisconsin's cross-division schedule is stiff, but we still think the Badgers are the best team in the division. September will be critical with home games against Michigan and Northwestern. The reality here is each of the top six teams have a chance to win the division. Quarterback Graham Mertz will live up to expectations and help get the Badgers back to Indianapolis. Nebraska could upset that, but we need to see the Huskers’ defense first. We’ll plead guilty to overlooking Northwestern — if it wins the West again with quarterback Hunter Johnson and preseason All-American linebacker Paddy Fisher. Iowa has experience at quarterback with Nate Stanley and defensive end A.J. Epenesa. Purdue and Minnesota should be improved as well.

Big Ten West X-factor: The cross-division schedule

We've already mentioned the crossover schedule. It comes down to which team can go 2-1 — or better — against its three Big Ten East opponents. Here's a closer look at those crossovers:

Team Big Ten East opponents
Wisconsin vs. Michigan, vs. Michigan State, at Ohio State
Northwestern vs. Michigan State, vs. Ohio State, at Indiana
Iowa vs. Rutgers, at Michigan vs. Penn State
Nebraska vs. Ohio State, vs. Indiana, at Maryland
Purdue at Penn State, vs. Maryland, vs. Indiana
Illinois vs. Michigan, vs. Rutgers, at Michigan State
Minnesota at Rutgers, vs. Maryland, vs. Penn State

Big Ten West sleeper: Minnesota

The Gophers have the friendliest crossover schedule in the division, and P.J. Fleck built momentum last season by ending the 14-year losing streak against Wisconsin. Running back Mohamed Ibrahim and receiver Tyler Johnson are back. Now, Minnesota must show more consistency.

Big Ten East predictions

1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Penn State
4. Michigan State
5. Indiana
6. Maryland
7. Rutgers

We’re still picking Ohio State. That comes with the trust that Day will get the most out of transfer quarterback Justin Fields with new offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich. The defense will improve under co-defensive coordinators Greg Mattison and Jay Hafley. Day will still have to prove it against a tough draw against West teams along with the usual pairings against Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State, but the Buckeyes still have the most talented team in the conference.

Big Ten East X-factor: Michigan’s new-look offense

Will Harbaugh be true to his word and open the offense up around Shea Patterson with new offensive coordinator Josh Gattis? Michigan has an outstanding trio of receivers in Donovan Peoples-Jones, Nico Collins and Tarik Black. Considering the questions at running back with the loss of Karan Higdon and Chris Evans, it’s time to see if Patterson — with Dylan McCaffrey mixed in — can finally lead that Big Ten championship charge.

Big Ten East sleeper: Michigan State

It seems like every time it’s assumed Ohio State and Michigan will dominate the division, Michigan State gets in the way. The Spartans have an experienced defense led by SN preseason All-American Kenny Willekes, but the offense must get more out of a healthy Brian Lewerke this season. Day hasn’t gone head to head with Dantonio yet. Dantonio also is 4-1 at the Big House.

MORE: SN preseason top 25, position rankings, All-Americans and more

Big Ten's biggest games in 2019

Ohio State at Nebraska (Sept. 28). If both teams get to this game unbeaten — and they should — there's a good chance “ESPN College GameDay” will be there for the ride. This is a huge matchup with Day and Frost looking for a big-game score.

Wisconsin at Nebraska (Nov. 16). The Badgers are 7-1 against Nebraska since the Huskers joined the Big Ten. Nebraska can't take the next step under Frost until the Huskers win this one.

Penn State at Ohio State (Nov. 23). The Nittany Lions’ season has hinged on the Ohio State game the last three years. Will they be able to avenge the fourth-quarter failures of the last two seasons?

Ohio State at Michigan (Nov. 30). The Wolverines have a tough schedule before this game, and must get through rivalries with Michigan State and Notre Dame first. We still think both teams will be in position to win the Big Ten East when they meet in Ann Arbor.

Big Ten Heisman hopefuls

Shea Patterson, Michigan. Patterson finished with 2,600 passing yards and 22 touchdowns last season. If he can lead the Wolverines to that elusive Big Ten title, then there’s a decent chance he'll get an invite to New York.

Adrian Martinez, Nebraska. Martinez is the best bet to lead the Big Ten in total offense in 2019. He showed that talent with 25 total touchdowns as a freshman last season. Another year with Frost will bring out more.

Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin. Taylor has 4,171 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns through two seasons, and there's no reason to expect it won't be more of the same in 2019. Melvin Gordon and Montee Ball were close; Taylor has the talent to at least be a top-three finalist.

Justin Fields, Ohio State. Fields has a tough act to follow in Dwayne Haskins, but the Georgia transfer will be more of a factor in the zone-read game with J.K. Dobbins (also a dark-horse candidate). How Fields progresses in the passing game will determine if he can get to New York.

Big Ten coach with something to prove: Lovie Smith, Illinois

Smith enters a telling fourth year in Champaign. The Illini are 9-27 the last three seasons, including 4-23 in Big Ten play. Every other team in the Big Ten West truly feels it has a chance to win the division. Illinois must show progress.

Big Ten stat that matters: 18-2

Meyer will be remembered for his 7-0 record against Michigan, but the Buckeyes had the drop on the entire Big Ten. His teams went 18-2 against ranked Big Ten teams, with the only two losses coming to Michigan State. That’s the challenge for Day in Year 1. How will he handle the constant flow of big-time games in the conference before "The Game" against the Wolverines? Will anybody in the Big Ten step up to the challenge?

MORE: Trap games for SN top-25 teams

Big Ten’s biggest question: Can Michigan beat Ohio State?

Michigan was picked by a panel of 34 Big Ten writers to win the confidence, and Harbaugh showed more confidence than ever in the Wolverines at Big Ten Media Days. Then again, Ohio State didn’t do much talking before a 62-39 victory against Michigan last season. This is a pivotal game for the direction of Harbaugh’s tenure. A win against the Buckeyes unlocks the rest of Michigan’s goals.

Big Ten champion: Ohio State

We’re not saying Michigan can’t win it, but we'll make the Wolverines prove it on the field. Ohio State will get contributions from some blue-chip freshmen — get ready for Garrett Wilson and Zach Harrison — and Fields will settle in as the starter. The Buckeyes might lose one, but they will be in the same position, on the fringe of the Playoff, when the pairings are announced. Will they get in this time?

Bill Bender

Bill Bender Photo

Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.