The Big Ten has three top-10 teams and four ranked teams with one loss or fewer heading into the final six weeks of the 2017 college football season.
No. 2 Penn State (7-0, 4-0), No. 5 Wisconsin (7-0, 4-0), No. 6 Ohio State (6-1, 4-0) and No. 16 Michigan State (6-1, 4-0) all remain unbeaten in conference play. The best path to Indianapolis? Stay unbeaten vs. Big Ten opponents.
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But there are a lot of games left, starting with the showdown between the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions.
We still think things could get weird. Here are five wacky scenarios that could unfold (with the help of the Big Ten division tiebreaker rules):
It could get weird for Penn State if …
The Nittany Lions lose to the Buckeyes and finish 11-1. What if Ohio State loses to Michigan in that scenario and creates a role reversal from 2016?
| TEAM | CONF | OVR |
| Ohio State | 8-1 | 10-2 |
| Penn State | 8-1 | 11-1 |
The head-to-head sends the Buckeyes to Indianapolis, where they win the Big Ten championship and make the College Football Playoff ahead of the one-loss Nittany Lions. That would create outrage for the second straight season in Happy Valley.
It could get weird for Ohio State if …
It beats Penn State, then lose to Michigan State. The Buckeyes would be 10-2 at that point, and could be in a three-way tie for the Big Ten East if the Nittany Lions beat the Spartans, who would also have two losses at that point.
| TEAM | CONF | OVR |
| Penn State | 8-1 | 11-1 |
| Ohio State | 8-1 | 10-2 |
| Michigan State | 8-1 | 10-2 |
In that event, the one-loss Nittany Lions would have a case in a three-way tie to go to Indianapolis. It might come down to some off-the-wall Big Ten tiebreakers such as "common conference opponents" and "cumulative conference winning percentage."
That could come down to Big Ten West opponents. Here are the three for each school:
Penn State: Iowa, Northwestern, Nebraska
Ohio State: Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska
Michigan State: Iowa, Northwestern, Minnesota
Good luck sorting that out, but the Buckeyes could be in trouble because of Illinois.
MORE: Week 9 College Football Playoff picture
It could get weird for Michigan State if …
Penn State beats Ohio State, Michigan State beats Penn State and Ohio State beats Michigan State. Then, we have the same mess with different head-to-head issues at work.
| TEAM | CONF | OVR |
| Penn State | 8-1 | 11-1 |
| Ohio State | 8-1 | 10-2 |
| Michigan State | 8-1 | 10-2 |
This would hurt the Spartans, however, because the College Football Playoff committee likely would value the Nittany Lions' sweep against Ohio State and Michigan above everything.
It could get weird for Wisconsin if …
The Badgers don't really have a weird scenario. They have to win the Big Ten championship to get the College Football Playoff, and they will get treated differently if they lose in the regular season. A one-loss Wisconsin team — even a Big Ten champion Wisconsin team — wouldn't get the same gold-star treatment as its Big Ten East counterparts when being compared to one-loss teams from other Power 5 conferences.
It could get weird for everybody if …
This would be an interesting "Armageddon scenario" for the Big Ten East:
— Ohio State beats Penn State and Michigan State but loses to Iowa and Michigan.
— Penn State loses to Michigan State and Ohio State.
— Michigan State beats Penn State, but loses to Ohio State and Northwestern.
— Michigan wins out, and beats Ohio State and Wisconsin.
That leaves us with …
| TEAM | CONF | OVR |
| Penn State | 7-2 | 10-2 |
| Michigan | 7-2 | 10-2 |
| Michigan State | 7-2 | 9-3 |
| Ohio State | 7-2 | 9-3 |
This is the price you pay for being the best division in college football, and here's where tempers would flare: Ohio State and Michigan State — by virtue of their 2-1 head-to-head records among the four other East teams — would be the beneficiaries. The Buckeyes, in theory, would then go to Indianapolis based on the head-to-head against the Spartans, but the College Football Playoff committee might not think that 9-3 record is enough to make the playoff.
This scenario suggests the conference cannibalizes itself out of the playoff — or a Big Ten East team would be the first two-loss team to make it. The only question would be, "Which one?"
This scenario seems very unlikely, but it's not impossible. Stay tuned.
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Remaining Big Ten schedules:
Penn State (7-0, 4-0)
at Ohio State
at Michigan State
vs. Rutgers
vs. Nebraska
at Maryland
Wisconsin (7-0, 4-0)
at Illinois
at Indiana
vs. Iowa
vs. Michigan
at Minnesota
Ohio State (6-1, 4-0)
vs. Penn State
at Iowa
vs. Michigan State
vs. Illinois
at Michigan
Michigan State (6-1, 4-0)
at Northwestern
vs. Penn State
at Ohio State
vs. Maryland
at Rutgers
Michigan (5-2, 2-2)
vs. Rutgers
vs. Minnesota
at Maryland
at Wisconsin
vs. Ohio State
