The Big Ten as we know it will have one last season before Westward expansion.
The conference added USC and UCLA in 2022 before taking Washington and Oregon from the Pac-12 this offseason, effectively killing the conference it had worked in conjunction with for over 75 years. That means the Big Ten will have 18 teams in 2024 – a storyline that is sure to dominate headlines in the final year before the 12-team College Football Playoff.
Speaking of the CFP, Michigan and Ohio State are looking to return there this season. The Wolverines are the two-time defending Big Ten champions, but coach Jim Harbaugh is suspended for the first three games of the season. The pressure is on at Ohio State, where Ryan Day has another loaded roster led by Marvin Harrison Jr. The Buckeyes, however, have not lost three in a row to the Wolverines since 1995-97. Penn State also has a team coach James Franklin said has "fewer question marks" than his past teams. The Big Ten East race will be fun.
In the West, Wisconsin will start a new chapter with Luke Fickell, the coach who took Cincinnati to the CFP in 2020. Matt Rhule will attempt to remodel Nebraska, and Ryan Walters left Illinois for Purdue. David Braun has the unenviable task of coaching Northwestern in the aftermath of a hazing scandal that led to the firing of longtime coach Pat Fitzgerald.
MORE: Braun's dream job comes with nightmare scenario
The Big Ten will move away from the East and West division format in 2024, so it's one last chance to watch a traditional Big Ten race before the former Pac-12 schools join the fray.
Who has the edge in the Big Ten this season? Here is a closer look at the Big Ten, with predictions, defining games, Heisman contenders and more:
MORE: We're moving more and more toward an SEC-Big Ten world
2023 Big Ten predicted order of finish
Big Ten East
- Michigan
- Ohio State
- Penn State
- Maryland
- Michigan State
- Rutgers
- Indiana
"The Game" between Michigan and Ohio State has escalated with the Wolverines' re-emergence. Michigan averaged 274.5 rushing yards in the last two victories against the Buckeyes, and the Wolverines have the best backfield in the FBS with quarterback J.J. McCarthy and running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. Ohio State will have a new quarterback – either Kyle McCord or Devin Brown – but there is so much first-round talent on the roster. The Big House could be the site of two 11-0 teams on Nov. 25.
Of course, Penn State could get in the way. The Nittany Lions have a new quarterback in five-star Drew Allar, and a talented roster that includes an NFL difference-maker at just about every position group. Franklin is in his 10th season – and he's 4-14 against the Buckeyes and the Wolverines. That will be a highly-cited statistic heading into those monumental games.
Maryland is an interesting sleeper. The Terps lost a one-score game to the Wolverines and led Ohio State at the half last season. Taulia Tagovailoa is back for one more run with coach Mike Locksley. There is a little more pressure on Michigan State and Mel Tucker after slipping to 5-7 last season. Rutgers and Indiana will look to challenge for bowl games under Greg Schiano and Tom Allen. Can one of these schools pull an upset that will throw the race among the Buckeyes, Wolverines and Nittany Lions for a loop?
Big Ten West
- Wisconsin
- Iowa
- Illinois
- Minnesota
- Purdue
- Nebraska
- Northwestern
This is the division of the transfer quarterback. Every team except Minnesota – who will start Athan Kaliakmanis this season -- is turning to a newcomer. The Gophers are a bit of a sleeper pick, but they have the crossover combination of Ohio State and Michigan on the schedule.
Iowa and Wisconsin could come down to which quarterback – Michigan transfer quarterback Cade McNamara with the Hawkeyes or SMU transfer Tanner Mordecai with the Badgers – makes the quicker transition. Illinois is a chaos team of sorts, and Ole Miss transfer Luke Altmyer is on the spot. The defense – led by SN Preseason All-American Jer'Zhan Newton – will be solid.
Purdue over Nebraska? The Boilermakers have won four of the last five in the series. It's the same story with Texas transfer Hudson Card and Georgia Tech transfer Jeff Sims here. Who brings their first-year coach's vision to life first? Northwestern will likely have Cincinnati transfer Ben Bryant under center in Week 1.
MORE: SEC predictions, preview
Top storyline: Will Michigan live up to hype?
Michigan was ranked No. 1 in the 1989 AP Preseason Poll, and they lost the opener to Notre Dame in a 24-19 thriller. That started a trend of high preseason expectations – the Wolverines have ranked in the preseason top five seven times since 1989. Three of those seasons resulted in Big Ten championships, but this year will be the first time since 2007. Michigan, of course, opened at No. 4 before the season-opening loss to Appalachian State. That might make some fans squeamish seeing East Carolina on the schedule for the opener.
Harbaugh took a school-imposed three-game suspension, however, and Michigan has a tough road schedule in the Big Ten with trips to Penn State, Michigan State, Nebraska and Minnesota. That said, the roster is loaded, especially on the offensive line with the return of guards Zak Zinter and Trevor Keegan. The defense will be solid, and Michigan does seem ready to compete for a national championship. Can this team beat Ohio State and take a run at Georgia?
MORE: How Jim Harbaugh's suspension will impact Wolverines
Impact freshmen
Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
Tate, a five-star recruit from IMG Academy, was a heavy target in the spring game. He caught a 37-yard touchdown, and he should work into the rotation behind Harrison, Emeka Egbuka and Julian Fleming. That's a five-star group, which speaks to Tate's talent just to be in that conversation so soon.
Malachi Coleman, WR, Nebraska
Rhule landed the top player in the state in Coleman – a hometown hero from Lincoln East High School. Coleman – a lean target at 6-foot-4 and 190 pounds – could fill a void left by 1,000-yard receiver Trey Palmer in time. Rhule will not be able to keep Coleman off the field for much longer.
Jonas Duclona, CB, Wisconsin
Duclona – a three-star cornerback from Naples (Fla.) High School, could start as a nickel or dime back with new defensive coordinator Mike Tressel. The 5-foot-10, 180-pound cornerback should be a perfect fit, and he will develop in this new-look defense faster than expected.
Impact transfers
Cade McNamara, QB, Iowa
The Hawkeyes became a national punchline because of an offense that averaged 17.7 points per game. McNamara, who led Michigan to a Big Ten championship in 2021 and has 21 TDs and seven interceptions, will exceed expectations with fellow Michigan transfer tight end Erick All. Ohio State transfer Kaleb Brown also is in the mix with returning leaders in tight end Luke Lachey and receiver Nico Ragaini. McNamara can work with that.
Tanner Mordecai, QB, Wisconsin
Will they change the fight song to "Air Wisconsin?" Mordecai is the quarterback who will help Wisconsin transition to offensive coordinator Phil Longo's passing attack, and Fickell promised that the offense will look different. A veteran presence helps, and Mordecai totaled 7,791 yards, 76 TDs and 23 interceptions through his time with Oklahoma and SMU.
Jeff Sims, QB, Nebraska
Casey Thompson transferred to FAU, which opened the door for Sims to be the guy in Rhule's new-look Nebraska regime. Sims brings a lot of experience – he totaled 4,464 passing yards, 1,152 rushing yards and 41 total TDs at Georgia Tech. Will he cut down on the turnovers with the Huskers and be more efficient in the passing game? If so, then this will be one of the shrewdest moves of the offseason.
Dante Cephas, WR, Penn State
Cephas averaged 992 receiving yards the last two seasons at Kent State, and the Pittsburgh native returned to his home state. He gives the Nittany Lions another playmaker in an exciting offense.
Drake Nugent, C, Michigan
Last year, Michigan pulled Virginia center Olu Oluwatimi from the transfer portal and he won the Rimington Trophy. Nugent started in every game for Stanford the last two seasons and should fit in with a dominant offensive front.
Heisman hopefuls
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Could Harrison follow Alabama's DeVonta Smith as the second receiver to win the Heisman Trophy this decade? Perhaps only USC's Caleb Williams is more indispensable at this point. Harrison had 72 catches for 1,152 yards and 12 TDs last season, and he showed out in the big games. Harrison totaled 22 catches for 411 yards and three TDs against Penn State, Michigan and Georgia last season. If he makes the signature plays against Notre Dame, the Nittany Lions and Wolverines, then it could happen.
Blake Corum, RB, Michigan
Corum finished seventh in the Heisman Trophy voting last season, and he would have finished higher if not for a knee injury against Illinois that effectively ended his season. Corum rushed for 1,463 yards and 18 TDs. He averages 6.0 yards per carry for his career. Edwards will cut into the workload, but Corum will still get enough opportunities to stay in the race.
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
Will McCarthy get in the mix? Harbaugh has been effusive in his praise for McCarhty's leadership, and the junior closed last season with 255.7 yards per game, eight TDs and three interceptions in the season-ending stretch against Ohio State, Purdue and Michigan. The Heisman is mostly a statistical award, so the question is whether McCarthy will put up the numbers to get to New York.
Kyle McCord, QB, Ohio State
Ohio State's last three quarterbacks have done just that. Dwayne Haskins (3rd in 2018), Justin Fields (3rd in 2019) and C.J. Stroud (4th in 2021, 3rd in 2022) all made the trip to New York. McCord has to beat out Devin Brown for the starting job first, but he has the talent and supporting cast to follow this trend. A victory against Michigan and a Big Ten championship would seal that trip.
Drew Allar, QB, Penn State
Why not? It's a toss-up with fellow freshman Nick Singleton, who could have a full-fledged breakout season. Allar is a 6-foot-5, 243-pound five-star talent who played enough as a freshman that inexperience won't be a factor. Remember the 1994 Heisman race? Ki'Jana Carter finished second, and Collins finished fourth. If Singleton and Allar pull off a similar act, then that means the Nittany Lions won the Big Ten.
Big Ten's biggest games of 2023
Ohio State at Michigan (Nov. 25)
This game drew 17 million viewers last season, and it would be in that neighborhood if it's a winner-takes-the-division setting again. Harbaugh has revived this rivalry, but he's still 2-5 overall. Day – who is 45-6 at Ohio State – has taken more heat for those two losses – his only Big Ten losses – since taking over as head coach. The Game always brings compelling stakes, and this is the last one in the four-team era. It won't disappoint.
Penn State at Ohio State (Oct. 21)
This is the first domino in that three-leg race between the Big Ten East powers. The Nittany Lions haven't beat Ohio State since 2016 – their last Big Ten championship season. Is Allar – a Medina, Ohio native – the one to break that streak in The Shoe? The Buckeyes have won the last six meetings by an average of eight points per game.
Michigan at Penn State (Nov. 11)
The Wolverines embarrassed Penn State 41-17 last year, and Harbaugh has a 5-3 head-to-head advantage against Franklin. Only one of those eight games have been decided by eight points or less. Will Penn State return the favor here and stake its claim to the Big Ten East in the process?
Iowa at Wisconsin (Oct. 14)
The home team has won the last four meetings and this year's game is at Camp Randall Stadium. It will be interesting to see the chess match between longtime Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz and Fickell in this one. It might be low scoring, but the winner will be in position to win the Big Ten West.
Ohio State at Wisconsin (Oct. 28)
Fickell was a defensive lineman, interim coach and longtime assistant coach at Ohio State. He said at Big Ten Media Days that "he would not allow himself to think about it" when it comes to this game. The Buckeyes have won the last nine meetings in the series – a streak that dates back to 2010.
MORE: A solution to Big Ten scheduling with 18 teams
Big Ten stat that matters
The Big Ten returns three 1,000-yard rushers from last season in Corum (1,463 yards, 18 TDs), Wisconsin's Braelon Allen (1,242 yards, 11 TDs) and Penn State's Nick Singleton (1,061 yards, 12 TDs). That does not include Ohio State's TreVeyon Henderson (571 yards, 6 TDs). In the Big Ten, the lead back always has a running man. Edwards (991 yards, 7 TDs), Allen (867 yards, 10 TDs), Ohio State's Miyan Williams (817 yards, 13 TDs) and Wisconsin's Chez Mellusi (475 yards, 2 TDs) are those guys. Which backfield was the most productive last season?
| BACKFIELD | YARDS | TDS |
| Michigan (Corum, Edwards) | 2,454 | 25 |
| Penn State (Singleton, Allen) | 1,928 | 22 |
| Wisconsin (Allen, Mellusi) | 1,717 | 12 |
| Ohio State (Henderson, Williams) | 1,388 | 19 |
This is why the Wolverines are favored in the Big Ten, and there is considerable hype around Penn State. Ohio State and Wisconsin should improve on these numbers in 2023 with a healthy Henderson in Columbus and Fickell's arrival at Wisconsin.
Big Ten champion: Michigan
This is not an easy pick. The Wolverines are the hunted now, and Ohio State has a more talented roster from a star-rating perspective. The Wolverines are 2-2 at Beaver Stadium under Harbaugh, but that will also be a tough out. There also is the possibility that Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State all finish 11-1 and beat each other in the process. File this away: If that happens, then the team with the best Big Ten West opponent record will go to Indianapolis. Here are their opponents:
| SCHOOL | BIG TEN WEST OPPONENTS |
| Michigan | at Nebraska, at Minnesota, vs. Purdue |
| Ohio State | at Purdue, at Wisconsin, vs. Minnesota |
| Penn State | at Illinois, vs. Iowa, at Northwestern |
We'll stick with Michigan. It's on the Buckeyes to flip the script back in their favor.
