The Big Ten champion hasn’t made the College Football Playoff in either of the last two seasons. The strongest conference in college football will look to rectify that in 2018.
No other conference has more teams capable of making a run to the Playoff this season. Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State form a four-team battleground in the Big Ten East. Wisconsin remains the standard in the Big Ten West, but Iowa and Northwestern will be among its biggest challengers. Nebraska, another traditional blue blood, welcomes back Scott Frost. The conference is loaded, but the last two years taught us one valuable lesson.
No one, not even conference champions, can lose two games and hope to make the Playoff.
MORE: SN preseason All-AmericansSporting News makes its predictions for the Big Ten in 2018.
We have division winners, Heisman hopefuls, biggest games and a conference champion. A closer look:
Big Ten East predictions
1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Penn State
4. Michigan State
5. Maryland
6. Indiana
7. Rutgers
Ohio State has lost three Big Ten games over the last six seasons under Urban Meyer. That’s ridiculous when you consider the level of competition in recent seasons. The Buckeyes just keep rolling, and they have two sleeper Heisman candidates in their backfield with Dwayne Haskins and J.K. Dobbins. Future NFL Draft first-rounders Nick Bosa and Chase Young will anchor the defense. Even in the toughest division in college football, you can’t pick against Ohio State.
Big Ten East X-Factor: Shea Patterson
Will the Ole Miss transfer be the missing piece that leads the Wolverines to their first Big Ten championship since 2004? Michigan’s defense is loaded with All-American caliber players, but they had that last year. The schedule features six teams that won 10 or more games last season. Patterson won’t have it easy.
Big Ten East Sleeper: Michigan State
We do this every year: Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State will grab the headlines, but the Spartans are every bit as capable of winning the division, given the experience Mark Dantonio brings back on both sides of the ball. In a four-team race, the Spartans have Michigan and Ohio State at home.
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Big Ten West predictions
1. Wisconsin
2. Iowa
3. Nebraska
4. Purdue
5. Northwestern
6. Minnesota
7. Illinois
The Badgers are loaded, and the Orange Bowl victory against Miami showed they have skill position players who can beat anybody. Alex Hornibrook can’t turn the ball over as much, and crossover games at Michigan and Penn State won’t be easy. Still, Wisconsin remains the standard in the Big Ten West.
Big Ten West X-Factor: Scott Frost
We’re not asking for a Big Ten West championship in Year 1, but we’re openly wondering how long until before Frost has the Huskers competing in a division that is wide open behind Wisconsin. The Big Ten schedule is brutal, but we know Frost won’t make excuses.
Big Ten West sleeper: Purdue
Jeff Brohm’s impressive makeover led to a bowl victory in Year 1, and the Boilermakers have a creative offense that can give people fits. The opener against Northwestern will go a long way in determining if this holds. Home games against Ohio State and Wisconsin will be exciting.
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Big Ten’s biggest games
Ohio State at Penn State (Sept. 29). This is the tone-setter for the entire Big Ten East race. The last two conference champions will be in Happy Valley for a “White Out,” and the winner will have the first big chip cashed in. Meyer is 5-1 against Penn State since 2012.
Michigan at Ohio State (Nov. 24). This game will have some bearing on the race, and Michigan returns to Ohio Stadium for the first time since that controversial 30-27 double-overtime thriller in 2016. It’s “The Game,”
and the stakes are always high.
Nebraska at Wisconsin (Oct. 6). We thought about putting Michigan-Michigan State here, but we’ll recognize this potential division-shifting game in the Big Ten West. If the Badgers win here and at Iowa on Sept. 22, they’ll be in control of the Big Ten West one week into October. They can pad their resume later in the season at Michigan and Penn State. For Nebraska, it’s a measuring stick for first-year coach Scott Frost.
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Big Ten champion: Ohio State
It’s a default setting, but by no means a guarantee. Ohio State has been a heavy favorite almost every year under Meyer, and that has led to two Big Ten championships in six seasons. The Buckeyes still have the most talent and they get Michigan at home. Even if they split road games at Penn State and Michigan State, they’ll be in decent position. We like the Buckeyes to get back to the College Football Playoff.
Heisman hopefuls
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin. Taylor continued the long line of Wisconsin stud running backs in 2017, rushing for 1,977 yards as a freshman. A 2,000-yard season is in the works for 2018. He's that good.
Trace McSorley, QB, Penn State. McSorley, who finished his second season with an incredible performance in the Fiesta Bowl, will be counted on more in 2018 with the loss of several offensive playmakers. He's a proven winner, and that won't change.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ohio State. Dobbins broke Ohio State's freshman rushing record and should be improved as a sophomore. He averaged 7.2 yards per carry in 2017 — can he keep up that pace?
Brian Lewerke, QB, Michigan State. Lewerke grew into the starting position while leading the Spartans to 10 wins last season. If he increases his completion percentage and keeps winning, he'll work into the conversation.
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Big Ten coach on hot seat: Lovie Smith, Illinois
Smith inherited a mess, but the Illini haven't made the same strides as some other Big Ten schools. Illinois went winless in conference play in 2017. That can’t happen again this year.
Big Ten stat that matters: 6
That’s the number of different Big Ten schools to have finished in the top six in the final College Football Playoff rankings the last four years. The Big Ten has held the No. 5 spot each of the last three years and the No. 6 spot each of the last two years. If there’s a conference capable of putting two teams from the same division in the Playoff — with the right breaks, of course — it’s the Big Ten.
Here's a closer look at the teams that finished in the top six the last four seasons:
2014: Ohio State (4)
2015: Michigan State (3), Iowa (5)
2016: Ohio State (3), Penn State (5), Michigan (6)
2017: Ohio State (5), Wisconsin (6)
Big Ten's biggest question: Harbaugh on hot seat?
No, he’s not. We don’t know how many times we have to say it. We could go more in depth here, but ask yourself these questions every time this comes up:
Is he going to the NFL? No. The most likely landing spots — Chicago and Indianapolis — just hired new coaches. And who would coach Michigan if Harbaugh was let go? Yeah, nothing there either.
Yes, Michigan needs to place higher in the Big Ten East and perform better against primary rivals Michigan State and Ohio State — not to mention the opener against rival Notre Dame. All those games are on the road this season, and all will play a role in Harbaugh’s public perception.
