When the AP Poll and College Football Playoff rankings are released over the next few days, the Big Ten East will be the only division in the FBS with four teams ranked in the top 25 that have two losses or fewer.
That normally would inflate conference pride, but in this case, it's going to lead to a cold realization after Iowa beat Ohio State 55-24 and Michigan State beat Penn State 27-24. The Buckeyes and Nittany Lions are in trouble, and the Spartans will probably still be ranked behind those teams — and a spot or two ahead of Michigan.
Welcome to the mess that is the Big Ten East.
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Ohio State (7-2, 5-1), Michigan State (7-2, 5-1), Penn State (7-2, 4-2) and Michigan (7-2, 4-2) are legitimate playoff contenders on a yearly basis.
The Spartans made the playoff in 2015. Ohio State did the same in 2014 and '16. Michigan and Penn State played in New Year's Day Six Bowls last year. No other division has that kind of competition in the top four spots. Keep in mind that whoever represents the division in the Big Ten title game on Dec. 2 likely will be favored against Wisconsin (9-0, 6-0), who can clinch the Big Ten West with a victory against Iowa (6-3, 3-3) next week.
The weight of the divisions in the Big Ten is imbalanced again. Remember, Michigan and Michigan State were in the Legends Division opposite Ohio State and Penn State in the Leaders Division from 2011-13. The switch back in 2014 coincided with the Nittany Lions' hiring of James Franklin in 2014 and the Wolverines' hiring of Jim Harbaugh for 2015.
It's a Catch-22 for the Big Ten. It's great to have all four of those programs up and running again, but it's probably not a good idea to have all four in the same division in a College Football Playoff climate where two losses means you're out. What should be a dream could be a nightmare for the conference.
Of course, these programs didn't help themselves this year. Michigan State and Ohio State lost nonconference games to Notre Dame and Oklahoma, respectively: teams that easily could make the College Football Playoff. The Buckeyes and Spartans also lost head-scratchers against Iowa and Northwestern the last two weeks.
Michigan lost to Penn State and Michigan State, but seems to have found its footing with a new quarterback in Brandon Peters. The problem? The Wolverines are the only team of these four that plays Wisconsin in the regular season.
Penn State had to go through Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State in three consecutive weeks, the last two on the road. Other than Alabama, there isn't another program in the FBS that can even think about doing that without suffering a loss. The Nittany Lions had the misfortune of losing two.
It has created a much different problem than the mess between one-loss Ohio State and two-loss Penn State last season. In 2016, there were conversations about one, two and even three Big Ten teams making the College Football Playoff. Now, the conference will be lucky to get one.
It's a problem that's not going away either.
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Ohio State isn't going to stop turning top-five recruiting classes with Urban Meyer. Franklin has his footing at Penn State, and there will be more "White Outs" like the ones the Buckeyes and Wolverines ran into the last two seasons. Mark Dantonio and the Spartans have enjoyed a bounce-back season and made it clear they aren't going anywhere. Harbaugh, for all the criticism about finishing no higher than third in this division, could lead the Wolverines to a third straight 10-win season.
What other division has that kind of consistency in third place? None, and that's part of the problem. Either the Buckeyes or Spartans will have three losses after next week's game in Columbus, and the winner likely is headed to Indianapolis with at least two losses.
That's a scenario that could become more common in November, given the strength of these programs. But if they want to get to the College Football Playoff, they better follow a few simple rules:
Win all your nonconference games; don't lose a cross-over game with the Big Ten West; don't lose more than one against the other the three powerhouses in the division.
All that, and maybe don't play at Iowa in November.
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Otherwise, this mess is going to continue happening, and the conference will rest its hopes on a conference champion from the Big Ten West. That's by no means a knock on the Badgers, but they aren't going through the same competition on the East side.
The Big Ten has that, and it has a problem. It's too good right now, and all the conference pride in the Rust Belt isn't going to change the fact that none of those teams makes the playoff unless there's complete chaos over the next four weeks — the kind of chaos seen within the division over the past month. It's going to hurt even more if and when Notre Dame gets in. The Irish only faced one of those four teams.
The Big Ten East might be the Big Ten Beast, all right, but it's a self-destructive beast.
All it does it create one big mess.
