No. 16 Baylor hosts No. 9 Oklahoma State on Saturday afternoon at McLane Stadium (3:30 p.m. ET on FOX) in a rematch of last season's Big 12 Championship. Oklahoma State attempts to remain undefeated on the season while Baylor looks for its fifth straight Big 12 conference victory.
Baylor enters Week 5 after an impressive 31-24 road win over Iowa State last Saturday as three-point road underdogs. In the win, sophomore QB Blake Shapen completed 19-of-26 passes for 238 yards and three TDs while the Bears' defense forced two Iowa State turnovers and held the Cyclones to 2.4 yards per carry.
After finishing the non-conference slate 3-0, Oklahoma State comes into Week 5 off its bye week and faces its toughest test of the early season. The Cowboys' offense is humming to begin the season, averaging 49.7 points per game but now takes a step up in class against a well-rounded Baylor defense that's limiting opponents to 16.8 points per game. Can the Cowboys avenge last season's Big 12 Championship loss?
MORE COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING: Week 5 ATS Picks
Here's everything to know about betting on the Week 5 matchup between the Bears and Cowboys:
Baylor vs. Oklahoma State odds
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
- Spread: Baylor -2.5
- Over/Under: 56.5
- Moneyline: Baylor -135; Oklahoma State +115
After opening up around a PK in the offseason, Baylor reopened as 2.5-point home favorites. The over/under has seen some movement, ticking up to 56.5 after opening around 48.5. For reference, in last season's Big 12 Championship Game, Oklahoma State was a seven-point favorite on a neutral field with an over/under of 45.5.
Three trends to know
— Baylor has won its past nine home games at McLane Stadium.
— Oklahoma State's past nine road games have all fallen UNDER the total.
— According to BetQL, "Dave Aranda is now 7-1 SU at Baylor when the Bears play a team that outscores its opponents by at least 10 points per game."
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Three things to watch
— Spencer Sanders' ball security: In last season's 21-16 loss in the Big 12 Championship, Sanders threw four interceptions, which forced the Cowboys to play from behind. While numerous factors can be attributed to turnovers making them fairly fluky, you're never in a great spot to win a game when you give four possessions away. Sanders' ability to extend drives without turning the ball over will play a key part in how this game transpires. So far this season, Sanders sports a 10:1 TD-to-INT rate with just two turnover-worthy plays. Baylor's defense is by far the most complete unit the Cowboys have seen to date, so we'll see if Sanders can continue to take care of the football.
—Can the Cowboys get Blake Shapen under pressure?: Shapen is as steady as they come at the QB position, but like most QBs, he's struggled under pressure. Shapen's been under pressure on 28.1 percent of dropbacks and has posted a 40.9-completion percentage with a 51.3 passer rating. Oklahoma State's defense has forced just 17 QB hurries through three games and will need its pass rush to ramp up in order to get Shapen under duress.
—Which defense rises to the occasion?: While both units aren't as stout as last season, they're sound enough to help lead their respective teams back to the Big 12 Championship. Will we see the Oklahoma State defense that allowed 44 points to Central Michigan or the one that held Arizona State to 17? Can Baylor's defense hold up in the red zone and limit the Cowboys to field goal attempts rather than TDs?
Baylor vs. Oklahoma State prediction
There's a good deal of uncertainty surrounding the outcome of this game, as this game would be priced near a pick 'em on a neutral field. Baylor sits as the short favorite due to this game being played at McLane Stadium, as this line would be flipped if being played in Stillwater. Although the total has been steamed up eight points, we're a bit more confident in the OVER relative to picking a side. With that being said, we'll side with Spencer Sanders and the Cowboys. Sanders should make enough plays on crucial downs and distances to keep the Cowboys undefeated on the season.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 30, Baylor 27. Oklahoma State (+2.5) covers the spread with the game going OVER the total (56.5).
