No FBS program has watched its stock fluctuate more this decade than Auburn. It's not even close.
The Tigers finished 14-0 and won a national championship in 2010 before a 12-2 record, SEC championship and BCS championship appearance in 2013. Of course, the 2011-12 seasons and 2014-16 amounted to a mediocre 34-30 record that led to the transition from Gene Chizik to Gus Malzahn.
Up. Down. Up. Down. That has been the story of this program.
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It's so fitting that No. 14 Auburn faces the same market swing after a 42-27 victory at Texas A&M on Saturday.
The Tigers are the highest ranked two-loss team, and in the best position for a shot at the College Football Playoff, given matchups with No. 1 Georgia and No. 2 Alabama over the next three weeks. Or, the Tigers could be destined for another four- or five-loss season that puts Malzahn back on the hot seat. It's all in front of them, that's for sure.
Pretender or contender? Despite the losses to Clemson and LSU this season, we're still not 100 percent sure what the answer is — but we know where to look the next three weeks.
Jarrett Stidham determines the market value of this team. He finished 20 of 27 for 268 yards, three touchdown and no interceptions in his best game of the year. That's his highest yardage total against an FBS opponent this season. If that continues, then Auburn will contend.
Stidham connected on his first 10 passes against Texas A&M, the last a 2-yard touchdown pass to Kerryon Johnson on a bootleg for a 7-3 lead with 10:50 left in the first half. Stidham showed once again how effective he is outside the pocket, but the blowout didn't kick in until he started hitting those coveted vertical shots down the field.
A 53-yard touchdown pass to Darius Slayton, which came on a post that started with an outside release, gave Auburn a 14-13 lead in the second quarter. Stidham found Ryan Davis on another rollout touchdown in the red zone then set up another score with a 46-yard strike to Slayton, which set up a 2-yard touchdown from Johnson. Four different receivers made a reception of 20 yards or more.
Add Johnson (29 carries, 145 yards, touchdown) in the running game and factor in several Texas A&M special teams blunders, and that's how Auburn built a 35-13 lead in the second half.
But the question still stands. Pretender or contender?
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With Stidham, we're about to find out in a three-game stretch that includes No. 1 Georgia, Louisiana-Monroe and No. 2 Alabama. With all due respect to the Warhawks, those other two games are everything for Auburn.
Can Stidham out-duel Georgia's Jake Fromm and Alabama's Jalen Hurts? That's the challenge for one of the most intriguing transfer quarterbacks this offseason.
Fromm entered the weekend with the highest quarterback rating in the SEC. Hurts hasn't lost a big game in conference play yet. Stidham has a unique opportunity to lead the Tigers past both and back into the SEC and College Football Playoff hunt.
Beat Georgia and Alabama, and the Tigers might get a rematch in the SEC championship game with the Bulldogs. It's suddenly on the cusp of being 2010 or 2013 all over again. Lose, and the Tigers are forever spinning wheels. It could be a four- or five-loss season with the same-old questions about closing the gap in the SEC West.
That's a hell of a swing, but that's the program we're dealing with. Auburn was 23-16 the last three years, but Stidham's arrival generated more offseason buzz than The Plains could handle. Despite the ups and downs of that stock, there's still a chance to cash in.
Up? Down? Man, we still don't know. But we can't wait to find out next week.
