Arkansas hosts Cincinnati at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium on Saturday afternoon (3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN). These two schools meet in Week 1 after successful 2021 campaigns that saw each program win nine-plus games.
Arkansas looks to build off an impressive 24-10 win over Penn State in the Outback Bowl that capped off the 2021-22 season as they hope to contend for the chance to represent the SEC West in Atlanta this season. The Razorbacks return seven starters on offense, most notably losing WR Treylon Burks (Tennessee Titans) and RB Trelon Smith. Arkansas' offensive line is among the elites in college football as all five starters post at least a 69.8 overall grade per PFF.
Along with some continuity among the offensive line, the Razorbacks get back QB KJ Jefferson for a fourth season. Jefferson took a massive leap in 2021 and finished the season rated as the 35th best QB out of 294 signal callers per PFF (87.0 offensive grade). Jefferson flourished in offensive coordinator Kendall Briles' system and with another offseason to develop, there's a good chance he improves even more with his arm.
The Razorbacks' defense isn't as polished as their offense, but defensive coordinator Barry Odom has enough talent to work with. Arkansas does lose six of its top-10 tacklers and returns only four starters, but should still be a competent enough unit throughout the season.
MORE WEEK 1 CFB BETTING: Top 25 picks ATS
Cincinnati's inevitably due to regress after being the first Group of Five school to get into the College Football Playoff, but the drop-off from last season to this year isn't as big as some might expect. The Bearcats' regular-season win total sits at 9.5 wins and Bet QL's model sees a fairly big edge in that number.
Losing your reliable multi-year starting QB (Desmond Ridder), top RB (Jerome Ford), top WR (Alec Pierce), top two cornerbacks (Sauce Gardner, Coby Bryant), and top safety (Bryan Cook) is tough for any team to replace, but that's what Luke Fickell and the Bearcats are tasked with entering 2022. QB Ben Bryant returned to the program after spending time at Eastern Michigan and could very well be the first QB to take snaps under center, but we still don't exactly know if Bryant or Evan Prater will be the team's Week 1 QB.
UPDATE: QB Ben Bryant will start for Cincinnati.
Here's everything to know about betting on the Week 1 opener between the Razorbacks and Bearcats:
Arkansas vs. Cincinnati odds
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
- Spread: Arkansas -6.5
- Over/under: 52
- Moneyline: Arkansas -260; Cincinnati +210
After opening up as 7-point favorites, the Razorbacks have been bet down below a touchdown to 6.5-point home favorites. The over/under has also seen some movement, ticking down to 52 after opening at 54.
Three trends to know
— Cincinnati is 1-4 straight up in their last 5 games against SEC opponents, most recently losing 27-6 against Alabama in the Cotton Bowl.
— The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arkansas' last 5 games as favorites.
— Arkansas has gone 9-2 ATS in the first half of the season under Sam Pittman, according to BetQL's Dan Karpuc.
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Three things to watch
— The Kendal Briles-KJ Jefferson connection: Briles has catered his scheme to Jefferson's skill set, as the Razorbacks want to spread you out wide and run the ball down your throat. There was talk during the offseason about the question marks surrounding the WR corps, but that talk has slowly dissipated. How will Briles and the Razorbacks decide to attack Cincinnati, on the ground or through the air?
—Bearcats against the run: Alabama, with Heisman Trophy winner QB Bryce Young under center, maintained a run-first approach against the Bearcats in the College Football Playoff semifinals. The Crimson Tide ran the ball 47 times for 301 yards (6.4 ypc), consistently having their way at the line of scrimmage. With Arkansas' offensive line being a strength, do we see a similar rushing yard output at the end of the game? How will the Bearcats' defensive line hold up through four quarters?
—Cincinnati's pass defense: Defending the run is one thing, and while the Bearcats' linebacking corps remains an elite group, what about their cornerbacks and safeties? It's difficult to replace three top-four round draft picks at corner and safety and remain stout against the pass. Will Razorback WRs Jadon Haselwood and Matt Landers routinely create separation on the outside?
Arkansas vs. Cincinnati prediction
Given the projected trajectories of both programs, the current spread feels a bit short. While oddsmakers and bettors still respect the Bearcats despite losing numerous key pieces from their College Football Playoff core, they deserve a good deal of respect to only be sitting as 6.5-point road underdogs against a respectable SEC foe. The biggest mismatch seems to be Arkansas' offensive line against Cincinnati's defensive front, and with the Razorbacks likely being able to run the ball at will, Arkansas notches a two-TD victory over the Bearcats on Saturday afternoon.
Final score: Arkansas 34, Cincinnati 20; Arkansas (-6.5) covers the spread with the game going OVER the total.
